(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The NBA regular season is in the books, and the playoffs are right around the corner, starting with the Play-In Tournament. Other than the seventh and eighth seed in both conferences, the rest of the matchups are set, scheduled to tip-off Saturday, April 19.

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Series Odds

(Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook)

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Pacers a 69.9% chance to win, compared to only 30.2% for the Bucks. Although it is a lot of juice, this would suggest there is a bit of value in laying the -190 and backing the Pacers.

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Regular Season Results

The four versus five seed in the Eastern Conference features a rematch from last season, with the Pacers taking on the Bucks in Round 1. Indiana got the best of Milwaukee last season, winning four out of five head-to-head meetings in the regular season and closing out the series 4-2. This season, however, it’s been Milwaukee with the upper hand, defeating Indiana in three out of four games, nearly sweeping the series had it not been for a wild four-point play by Tyrese Haliburton to take the lead in the final three seconds of regulation.

The biggest question mark heading into the playoffs is if Milwaukee can stay competitive and overcome the absence of Damian Lillard, who was recently diagnosed with deep-vein thrombosis and is unlikely to return before the conclusion of the first round, if at all this postseason. Fortunately for the Bucks, they’ve had time to adjust without their nine time All-Star point guard and fared relatively well, winning 10 of their last 14 games to close out the regular season. Giannis Antetokounmpo has taken on a much bigger role as both a scorer and a facilitator, but historically, Bobby Portis receives the biggest uptick in usage without Lillard, and he will be critical in determining the outcome of the series.

Pacers vs. Bucks: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

Indiana gets the nod when it comes to pace, led by one of the best point guards in the league, Tyrese Haliburton.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Bucks. On the surface, Milwaukee grades out as the better all-around team. However, it’s hard to envision the offense maintaining its efficiency without Damian Lillard.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Bucks. Once again, although Milwaukee grades out much better across the board on offense, it won’t look nearly the same without Damian Lillard.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Push. Both teams are toward the bottom of the league in rebound rate and inside the top five in turnover percentage.

Key Player Matchups

Tyrese Haliburton vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Tyrese Haliburton – Indiana Pacers

• Games Played: 73
• Stats: 18.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 9.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.3% FG, 38.8% 3PT, 85.1% FT
• Advanced: 58.2% eFG, 21.8 PER, 10.4 Win Shares

Tyrese Haliburton has been one of the best play-making point guards over the last two seasons, finishing first and third in assists per game.

The key for Haliburton: Although Haliburton knows how to find guys open, he’s often disappeared as a scorer, struggling to find his shot. That said, when Haliburton scores at least 20 points, Indiana has been unstoppable, winning 25 out of 28 games.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – Milwaukee Bucks

• Games Played: 67
• Stats: 30.4 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 6.5 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.7% FG, 39.5% 3PT, 83.7% FT
• Advanced: 60.7% eFG, 30.5 PER, 11.5 Win Shares

Giannis Antetokounmpo continued to play at an MVP level, at times carrying the team on his back without Damian Lillard and Bobby Portis down the stretch. 

The key for Antetokounmpo: Can he sustain his role as the team’s primary scorer and facilitator throughout an entire playoff series? We’ve seen Antetokounmpo do a little bit of everything for Milwaukee to close out the season, piling up the triple doubles and stuffing the stat sheet. However, the playoffs are a different animal and relying solely on one player likely won’t be enough to make it out of the first round.

Pascal Siakam vs Bobby Portis

Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers

• Games Played: 78
• Stats: 20.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 51.9% FG, 38.9% 3PT, 73.4% FT
• Advanced: 57.2% eFG, 19.2 PER, 7.5 Win Shares

Pascal Siakam continued to thrive in his new home with Indiana, leading the team in scoring, averaging just over 20 points per game (20.2), and was named an All Star for the third consecutive season.

The key for Siakam: Will Siakam be healthy by the start of the post season? Although Siakam hasn’t missed much time, he’s been hampered by a right elbow injury, limiting his minutes. Since March 10, Siakam is averaging less than 18 points per game (17.9), while shooting 32.8% from three. 

Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks

• Games Played: 49
• Stats: 13.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.1 APG
• Shooting Splits: 46.6% FG, 36.5% 3PT, 83.6% FT
• Advanced: 52.0% eFG, 17.7 PER, 2.7 Win Shares

Bobby Portis missed 25 games due to a suspension but showed no signs of rust in his limited action to close out the season, looking like a full go heading into the playoffs.

The key for Portis: Will Portis step up in the absence of Damian Lillard and alleviate the pressure off of Giannis Antetokounmpo? Even off the bench, Portis is arguably the second-most important player for Milwaukee and should be the focal point of the team with Antetokounmpo off the court.

Series Prediction: Pacers vs. Bucks

As mentioned earlier, although the Pacers are favored in this series, they still seem to be undervalued by the market based on our model’s simulation.

FTN Model Prediction: Pacers

According to FTN’s model, this series projects to be somewhat lopsided with Indiana coming out victorious more often than not.

Sam’s Pick: Pacers in 7

The Bucks ended the season strongly, but running the offense entirely through Giannis Antetokounmpo is unsustainable in a playoff series as evidenced by the results of the simulations above. Still, unlike the model I do think Milwaukee can stay competitive even at less than full strength and possibly force a seven-game series. 

Best Bets for Pacers vs. Bucks

Over 5.5 Total Games

(-140, FanDuel Sportsbook)

All the numbers point toward Indiana, but Milwaukee still has the best player in the series and the entire Eastern Conference, which should be enough to pull out at least two games. Rather than picking a team, I like taking the over on 5.5 total games, trusting both teams to force a competitive series. 

Final Thoughts on Pacers vs. Bucks

The rematch between the Pacers and the Bucks should be a good one and could get scrappy like we saw last season. Milwaukee has their work cut out for them without Damian Lillard, but I’m still not counting out Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ability to take over an entire game and possibly force an upset. Regardless of who moves on, I expect this series to be competitive even if the model suggests otherwise.