College Basketball Best Bets (3/15)

Now on the doorstep of Selection Sunday, I want to thank everyone for following along. It has been an up-and-down season to put it mildly and one of the worst for me as a handicapper. Bad plays, crazy outcomes and just some pure unpredictability has kept me out of the win column, but I appreciate those who have read these articles and taken something from my analysis. 

The good news is that four out of my last five NCAA Tournaments have been profitable, so it all turns around now. As always, remember to shop around for the best odds. Lines are rarely identical across sportsbooks, especially in college basketball. The difference between -110 and -115 may seem small, but it adds up throughout an entire season – especially if you’re going to be a volume shooter come the tournament, as I will be. But let’s get to it. 

Last Article: 0-2 | Season (Articles): 34-30 | Season (Overall): 154-162-2

Alabama vs. Florida

Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN
Florida -3.5 | Total: 174.5

Two of the best teams in basketball go toe-to-toe as they potentially compete for the final one seed. Each squad led all 40 minutes of their opening matchups and didn’t even really seem to break a sweat. This is the second matchup of the year between these two teams after Florida handled business in Tuscaloosa with a 99-94 win earlier this month. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if more of the same happened today offensively. Both teams rank in the top 50 in pace of play, with each squad getting over 15% of their points from fastbreak looks. Each team will also grab a haul of offensive boards and capitalize on second-chance opportunities, so even with both defenses ranking in the top 25, there are going to be a lot of opportunities to score on both sides.

Still, Florida matches up better. Nate Oats’ squad is analytically sound, but they rarely force turnovers, they foul at a relatively high clip and have worse defensive rebounding numbers against a better offensive rebounding team. The pure field goal attempt rate heavily favors Florida, and the Gators will take advantage of Bama’s offense that funnels opponents inside the arc. 

Florida’s recent play – ranking as the third-best team in its last 10 games with an even more efficient offense – is too much to pass up on, especially considering the Gators went into Tuscaloosa and came out victorious. Alabama’s defensive possession length ranks 11th highest, so I expect Florida to win in the transition battle and on the glass to earn itself a spot at the SEC crown.

Prediction

Florida 93, Alabama, 86

Best Bet

Florida -3.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

Gainbridge Fieldhouse | Indianapolis, IN
Wisconsin +3.0 | Total: 144.5

Nearly two weeks ago, Wisconsin went into the Breslin Center without Max Klesmit and shot 5-for-32 (15.6%) from deep en route to a 71-62 defeat. If a team is due for negative regression, Michigan State seems like one of the likeliest candidates. 

The Spartans own one of the best opponent perimeter shooting percentages in the league but rank 71st in open three rate allowed, per ShotQuality. That’s still a decently fine number, but more shots are bound to go in, especially for a Wisconsin team coming off a 59% perimeter shooting afternoon against UCLA. Now I’m not expecting those kinds of numbers, but the Badgers are expected to take nearly half their shots tonight from the perimeter, per Haslametrics, so even an average shooting night would put them in great position.

Defensively, it’s known that Michigan State can’t shoot threes, but I expect Wisconsin to slow them down otherwise. Over 21% of MSU’s points come from the fastbreak, but the Badgers don’t sell out for the offensive boards and are more than capable of shutting that down. They won’t force turnovers, but the sound basketball expected from Greg Gard’s squad is a drawing factor. Since Feb. 1, Wisconsin has ranked better than Michigan State, and the Sparty offense ranks outside the top 60 in that time frame. This is also the best free throw shooting team in the country, so a close game late favors the Badgers, and they should get some extra free points with Michigan State’s 167th-ranked defensive free throw rate. I’m playing the spread here, but don’t be afraid to take Wisconsin outright.

Prediction

Wisconsin 73, Michigan State 72

Best Bet

Wisconsin +3.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Michigan vs. Maryland

Gainbridge Fieldhouse | Indianapolis, IN
Maryland -4.0 | Total: 150.5

We’re staying in the Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the other Big Ten game of the night between Michigan and Maryland. The two teams played once this season just 10 days ago, as Maryland came into the Crisler Center and handled business, taking down the Wolverines 71-65.

From a pure starting lineup perspective, it’s hard to compete with the Maryland first five. All of its starters average over 12 points per game, Derik Queen is a monster down low with a high free throw clip, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie is an efficient guard who can do it all. They score in transition, take care of the ball and manufacture steals or turnovers. That will likely be a big part of today’s game, as Michigan’s 330th-ranked offensive turnover rate could bury the Wolverines. There isn’t a weakness in this Maryland defense, and recent play has only solidified that.

Since Feb. 1, Maryland has the single best defense in DI hoops. During that same time frame, Michigan’s offense ranks 102nd. This is in large part due to its 359th-ranked perimeter shooting percentage (26.8%), but even if it regresses back to average, the Wolverines are still going against the best defense in the sport right now. Maryland’s size will allow it to handle the talented Michigan frontcourt, and I seriously struggle to see how Michigan will score. The transition from Purdue to Maryland is going to be a culture shock. The Terrapins held Illinois to 65 points after putting up over 100 against Iowa, so I’m comfortable fading Michigan’s offense here.

Prediction

Maryland 74, Michigan 68

Best Bet

Michigan Under 73.5 points (-120 DK)