2025 NCAA Conference Tournament Sims

One of the best parts of March Madness is reviewing the FTN Fantasy Conference Tournament Simulations. We run 10,000 simulations of each Power Six conference tournament, allowing us to identify the best values in the market. We create the odds of each team progressing through the tournament, culminating with an overall chance to win it all. When you compare our odds with the actual betting values, it’s easy to find those teams that are underrated and overrated by the public. 

Let’s take a close look at the SEC conference simulations, and review the market discrepancies for the top four seeds, and identify the best value on the board. 

(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)

Auburn Tigers

Head coach Bruce Pearl has a dominant roster, which we bestow the highest percentage to win the SEC Tournament (29.6%). While backing Auburn is certainly a reasonable play, their odds (+150) equate to a 40% chance of winning, equating to over a 10% discrepancies from our simulations. 

Florida Gators

The Gators enjoyed a superb season, dramatically improving their defensive efficiency. Florida won at Auburn, granting the Gators the second-best odds to win the tournament (+270). That equates to a 27% win rate, which still lands much higher than the FTN projection of a 20.6% chance of earning the conference tournament title. 

Alabama Crimson Tide

Nate Oats embraces variance, which makes him comfortable with the high risk/reward of Alabama’s 3P-based offensive attack. Many will be tempted by their +425 value, but that translates to a 19% chance of winning the conference tournament. By our calculations, that number should be closer to 16.2%. 

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is one of the best values in the entire conference tournament board (+600), projected for just a 14% chance of winning the SEC Tournament. By our simulations, we project the Volunteers at 16.5%, providing 2.5% of values for the public. 

Missouri Tigers

The Tigers have feasted at home, earning victories over Alabama and Mississippi, with a true road win at Florida. Their +2500 value equates to only a 3.9% chance of winning, below our simulated number of 4.1%. If you are looking for long shot, consider Dennis Gates’ Tigers.