The Fantasy Options Most Helped by Their Division in 2024

The NFL schedule changes every year, but six games for each team remain the same: the intradivisional matchups. The Titans might face the Bills one season, the Browns the next, the Chargers the one after that, but they’ll face the Colts, Jaguars and Texans twice each, every single year.

That doesn’t always have to mean much, but at the least, you can use teams’ divisional games as the control to the rest of the schedule’s variable. If a team is in a division with three putrid defenses, and its players thrive in those games but struggle out of the division, well, that tells us something, but it also means good news for that team’s players the next year, because they will still play those teams. The inverse is also true if a team’s divisionmates are all defensive stalwarts.

Of course, this is small samples we’re dealing with here. In a 17-game season, you face divisional opponents six times and non-divisional opponents 11. Miss a game here and there, and the sample size is even smaller. So just doing well or poorly against division foes isn’t enough to draw a conclusion. But it’s a heck of a place to start, especially as we’re progressing through free agency and seeing where most everyone will be playing next season.

That’s what I’m doing today and Friday. Below, I’m looking at the fantasy players most helped by their division in 2024, and what that means (if anything) for 2025. Friday, I’ll do the opposite — players most hurt by their division.

(All scoring is PPR, players needed at least four intradivisional games to be considered.)

Players Most Helped by Their Division in 2024

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos

Outside the division: 5.2 PPR points per game
Inside the division: 13.0
Difference: +148.6%

Vele scored three touchdowns as a rookie: Against the Chiefs in Week 10, the Chargers in Week 16 and the Chiefs again in Week 18. He averaged 3.7 targets in those games, compared to 4.4 the rest of the season. Add in the fact that the Chiefs basically weren’t trying in Week 18, and I’m not putting much stock in Vele’s pro-AFC West prowess being meaningful. 

Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears

Outside the division: 8.4
Inside the division: 18.1
Difference: +115.9%

Allen had more than 10 targets three times last year — 15 against the Vikings in Week 12 and 13 each against the Vikings in Week 15 and the Lions in Week 16. He also had 8 targets apiece in two other NFC North games. Per the FTN Fantasy StatsHub, Allen was the runaway leader in slot snaps for the Bears, and the Lions (first, 1,670) and Vikings (seventh, 1,403) were among the league leaders in yards allowed to the slot. The kicker, though — Allen is of course a free agent. So this isn’t a “buy on Keenan Allen in 2025” entry; it’s a “buy on whoever the Bears add to be the slot receiver in 2025” one.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Outside the division: 9.2
Inside the division: 18.7
Difference: +102.1%

Cousins played the Saints twice and the Panthers once. But it was the damage he did against the Buccaneers (8 touchdowns in two games, compared to 10 in 12 games against anyone else) that really made the difference here. I broke it down further in my one-game wonders of 2024.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Outside the division: 7.4
Inside the division: 13.8
Difference: 86.9%

This was a one-year phenomenon — for his four-year career, Waddle is averaged 5.0 receptions on 7.2 targets outside the division compared to 5.0 receptions on 7.1 targets inside it. So what happened in 2024? Well, it wasn’t the Bills — Waddle had 6 receptions for 37 yards in two Bills games. But against the Patriots and Jets, he feasted. He had four games of at least 8 targets in 2024, and all four came against those divisional opponents, with 8 targets in Week 5, 9 in Week 12, 12 in Week 14 and 9 in Week 18. He averaged 83.3 yards against the Jets and Patriots, compared to 37.4 against all other teams. And what do those two teams have in common? Well, in Christian Gonzalez and Sauce Gardner, both teams have theoretically elite cover corners, and those corners would naturally match up against Tyreek Hill, leaving Waddle to be covered by lesser options. In other words, this isn’t “use Waddle against the AFC East,” this is “use Waddle against teams with one elite corner, because teams can’t cover both receivers and they’ll choose to cover Hill.”

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Outside the division: 10.1
Inside the division: 16.9
Difference: +68.0%

Kelce isn’t the player he once was:

And it’s not as simple as “he elevates his game when it matters most,” either — see his 6 receptions for 58 yards in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl combined. But it’s still generally true that the Chiefs lean on him more when it matters. Over the last five years, Kelce has averaged 8.4 targets, 67.3 yards and 0.4 touchdowns in games outside the AFC West, compared to 9.3 targets, 6.7 receptions and 81.1 yards against divisional opponents. That trend spiked in 2024, with 7.4 targets and 42.5 yards out of the division, but 10.4 and 71.2, respectively, in the division. With Kelce back for 2025, the numbers here appear to point to him maybe not being a good season-long investment, but when the Chiefs play the Raiders, Broncos or Chargers, give Kelce a long look in DFS.