First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
The Super Bowl brings the casual fans out in droves, and with them comes attempts to keep their interest. This goes to every aspect of the game, from puff character pieces on the pregame show to a halftime show featuring Kendrick Lamar to clickbaity articles desperately trying to catch the casual fans up on the very basics of what’s going on, such as “who’s playing?” or “who are the Chiefs?” and other hard-hitting topics.
The same is true in Vegas, of course, where oddsmakers have rolled out prop bets on anything remotely connected to the game, broadcast, experience, or just the very concept of the Super Bowl itself. Twenty years ago, when the Super Bowl Prop Bet Extravaganza first launched at our old home, we had to explain the concept of lines and the house making money. It’s safe to say gambling on sports has become a bit more ubiquitous in the two decades since, with an expected $1.39 billion to be bet legally on the game. Some of that has to go into deciding what color Gatorade is going to be poured on the head coach.
Elsewhere here on FTN Fantasy, you can find serious, reasoned analysis on the overall line as well as the team and player props you find on a regular weekly basis during the NFL season. But, in the spirit of the old Extravaganzas, the novelty and off-beat props deserve to have a stupid level of analysis applied to them, too. And if there’s one thing I can do, it’s provide stupid analysis. Let’s dive in.
All of these are real, actual props you can bet on right now – or could have, with all odds being correct at time of writing but subject to change.
Pre-Game Props
Coin Toss
Heads: -101
Tails: -101
You would think this would be a 50/50 wager, and on paper, you’d be right. But coins aren’t tossed on paper; you’ve got to go to the film and see which side performs better on game day. Historically, tails has shown up stronger on game day, winning 30 times to heads’ 28. But you can’t argue against the form heads has been in in recent years! They’ve won three of the last four coin tosses, closing that historic gap. Ah, but this isn’t just any Super Bowl, this is a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl! And the one exception in that heads hot streak was Super Bowl LVII, when Kansas City called tails… and won. Tails was dominant on that Sunday, and Tails will win once more, despite heads’ current run of form.
On a (very slightly) more serious note, this will be the third time Andy Reid’s Chiefs have gotten to call the coin toss at the Super Bowl. They’ve picked heads once and tails once, both times correct – they may dog it in the regular season, but they bring their A-game in the playoffs. If you’re looking for a tiebreaker, the Chiefs won when they called tails against the Eagles, and lost when they called heads against the Buccaneers. If you believe in superstition, group your Tails bet with the Chiefs winning the coin toss (-105) and the coin toss call being correct (-110). Because if you’re going to bet on the literal flip of a coin, you may as well go all in, right?
U.S. National Anthem Time (Words Sung Only)
Under 120.5 seconds (-140)
Over 120.5 seconds (+100)
Jon Batiste is performing the anthem this year, and he’s a veteran of anthems on major stages. His rendition at the 2017 NBA All-Star Game clocked in at over two minutes, but much of that was initial piano noodling; the actual words were less than 90 seconds long. The prop specifies that we’re talking from the start of “O say can you see” to the end of “Brave”, so any jazzy, soulful preamble will not count for the purposes of this bet! And even without a piano, Batiste tends to get in and out pretty quickly – his 2017 US Open rendition also clocked in well under two minutes. Things do tend to stretch out during the Super Bowl, but a lengthy rendition would be significantly out of character for Batiste. Take the under.
Unusual Game Play Props
Jersey Number of First TD Score
Over 15.5 (-130)
Under 15.5 (-110)
Over will get you Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt and Noah Gray, while Under gives you Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Xavier Worthy. Oh, how my aging heart rages against the wide receivers being on the under prop, rather than everyone wearing numbers in the 80s as was clearly intended by the Football Gods. Over, both because Barkley busting out a big play early seems like a reasonable bet, and because wide receivers wearing single-digit numbers is clearly some sort of etiquette foul.
Player Shown First with Next-Gen Stats Graphic?
Xavier Worthy (-200)
Saquon Barkley (+300)
DeVonta Smith (+600)
A.J. Brown (+600)
Marquise Brown (+900)
Kareem Hunt (+900)
A ”top speed” graphic on Worthy after a bomb seems like something we’re bound to see at some point, but I don’t think the Chiefs will be going for the jugular quite so early. They’ll be a little more cautious on their opening drives, meaning the presumptive Offensive Player of the Year Barkley will get a graphic extolling his virtues – or, at least, the virtues of the offensive line opening holes for him.
How Many Tush-Pushes Will Eagles Attempt?
Under 1.5 (-165)
Over 1.5 (+125)
I’m taking the under here, both because you have to be in the right situation to make it happen, and because we’ve seen them seed a couple potential tricks and options out of the tush push throughout the playoffs. If there was ever a time to pull one out, you’d think the Super Bowl would be the place. Heck, Sean Payton made people think the surprise onside kick was a thing worth salvaging with just one play call, and how many Philly Specials have we seen over the years? A Pushless Tush could live forever in NFL lore.
Will There Be a Field Goal “Doink”?
No (-1500)
Yes (+600)
Obviously, you have to bet yes when you’re getting such terrible odds for no, but whatever magical voodoo powers the Chiefs have had this year to keep winning one-score games over and over again surely means Jake Elliott is bound to doink the game-winning attempt at the end of regulation, right? It’s written in the stars.
Broadcast-Related Props
First Player to Yell at Coach/Teammate On Sideline
A.J. Brown (+200)
Travis Kelce (+400)
Xavier Worthy (+400)
Jalen Hurts (+500)
DeAndre Hopkins (+600)
DeVonta Smith (+700)
Patrick Mahomes (+1000)
Saquon Barkley (+1000)
I sincerely hope it won’t be Brown. That would shake my entire faith in self-help books! The bet helpfully specifies that this is specifically for “negatively yelling,” as opposed to simply firing someone up. We did see Kelce yell at Andy Reid in last year’s Super Bowl, but I think that has his odds too high, hoping we’ll remember last year and just re-click. Instead, let’s go with Patrick Mahomes. The odds are long, but Mahomes was visibly upset against the Raiders earlier this season after taking sacks, and the Philadelphia defense is relentless. There’s a fine line between inspiring your offensive line and yelling at them, and I’ll take the longer odds and the chance Mahomes slips just over that line in the all-seeing eye of the adjudicator.
How Many Super Bowl LVII Highlights Will Be Shown?
Over 1.5 (-150)
Under 1.5 (+110)
This is again specifically during the game broadcast, rather than halftime or commercials or things of that nature. The closer the game, the less likely we are to see highlights, and I don’t think this game is going to become a massive blowout. Besides, while there were plenty of exciting plays from the Super Bowl two years ago, there weren’t that many instantly iconic ones – no helmet catch or interception at the goal line to be played ad nauseum. I guess Jalen Hurts’ fumble, the one that really got Kansas City back into the game, would be the top option? But that seems like something you’d play if and only if either team had a huge fumble recovery this year. Under; there just doesn’t seem to be a good fit for squeezing in old highlights while a game is actively happening.
Will Jason Kelce be Wearing Beads
No (-300)
Yes (+200)
I don’t know; the Kelces are normally such calm and restrained personalities. Wouldn’t wearing some Mardi Gras beads in New Orleans be rather uncharacteristically garish? Yes.
How Many Times Will “Birthday” Be Said
Over 1.5 (-120)
Under 1.5 (-120)
It’s Saquon Barkley’s 28th birthday on Sunday. It’s Cooper DeJean’s 22nd birthday on Sunday. This seems like a crazy low number to bet on. It’s been decades, and we’re still hearing “Jerome Bettis is from Detroit” jokes; little coincidences like this are catnip for broadcasters looking to fill up time. Brady will likely say “birthday” twice in the same sentence as he drones on and on. What, you think he’s not going to just ramble to fill up airtime? You haven’t seen too many Brady broadcasts this year, have you? Way, way over.
Times Tom Brady’s Voice Cracks During the Game
Over 2.5 (-120)
Under 2.5 (-120)
Part of the backlash against Brady’s first year as a color commentator comes from his vocal tone quality. He gets raspy, and occasionally squeaks; he doesn’t have the polished vocal tone you’ve come to expect from a professional broadcast team. Even FOX has gotten in on the joke, with Curt Menefee joking that the network had made sure to include throat lozenges in his stocking during their Christmas broadcasts – jokes which were made funnier by Brady seemingly thin-lip smiling his way through the segment. Brady is such a noted perfectionist that struggling as much as he had this year must be bothering him; it’s been very much a rookie performance as a color commentator. That’d be fine if he wasn’t also FOX’s lead commentator, but here we are. I’ll say that Brady has his throat in shape for this one and take the under, but that doesn’t rule out some other mistake – he’s mixed up names, forgotten schedules and generally been poor outside of some prepared bits where he can flash his knowledge. He’ll just make those mistakes with a solid voice this time around.
Which Book Will A.J. Brown be Reading on Sideline
Love Hurts: Buddhist Advice for the Heartbroken (+700)
The Bible (+900)
Any Shakespeare (+900)
The Catcher in the Rye (+1000)
Of Mice and Men (+1000)
Inside the Philadelphia Eagles (+1200)
Dallas Cowboys Suck (+1600)
Fifty Shades of Grey (+2000)
Moby Dick (+2000)
Pride & Prejudice (+2000)
The Great Gatsby (+2000)
To Kill a Mockingbird (+2000)
War & Peace (+2500)
The Cheetah Tyreek Hill (+2500)
Lord of the Flies (+3300)
A Tale of Two Cities (+3300)
Brave New World (+4000)
Dune (+5000)
Football for Dummies (+5000)
Brown Bear Brown Bear What Do You See (+10000)
“He found himself understanding the wearisomeness of this life, where every path was an improvisation and a considerable part of one’s waking life was spent watching the Chiefs play in the Super Bowl for the umpteenth time.” – William Golding, Lord of the Flies.
Halftime Show
Kendrick Lamar 1st Song:
Humble (-155)
Not Like Us (+200)
Squabble Up (+300)
Swimming Pools (+600)
Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe (+700)
Money Trees (+800)
N95 (+1200)
United in Grief (+2000)
King Kunta (+2000)
Alright (+2400)
Wacced Out Murals (+2500)
Like That (+3300)
Backseat Freestyle (+3300)
Maad City (+4000)
Euphoria (+5000)
Element (+5000)
All The Stars (+6600)
The Blacker The Berry (+6600)
Duckworth (+6600)
Rigamortis (+6600)
GNX is really good. It’s probably Lamar’s best album since To Pimp a Butterfly. But that’s not what’s blown up biggest for Lamar this past year, because it doesn’t have anything from his feud with Drake on it! With “Not Like Us” sweeping all five of its Grammy nominations, including Record and Song of the year, it has to be played at some point… but the diss track seems too harsh to start the set with. Plus, if you truly want to bury Drake, surely you make it the last thing you play, and keep that as the big finish in everyone’s minds forever and ever. Do you bookmark it with “Euphoria”, making the entire show one big Drake-burying performance? No, I think you start with “Squabble Up” and save the knives for the end of the show.
Total Songs Sung at Halftime Show
Over 10.5 (-145)
Under 10.5 (+105)
This isn’t Lamar’s first halftime show. He was part of the LVI, Dre and Snoop-led show which was the first Super Bowl halftime show centered entirely around hip-hop. That’s our only benchmark for what we’re going to see this Sunday, and it managed to squeeze 11 songs in, but only just. That included the instrumental snippet of “I Ain’t Mad at Cha” Dre played, which would not count for this prop; it must “include songs actually sung”. I don’t think a songwriter as lyrical as Lamar will want to have a ton of small snippets of songs; I think he’ll want to let them breathe a little bit. That would imply the under.
Kendrick Lamar to Perform Taylor Swift Cover Song
No (-3000)
Yes (+900)
I mean… Lamar was on a remix of “Bad Blood.” This is a thing that happened. It’s technically his first number one single, coming three years before “Humble.” His main verse there is just 25 seconds long; it’s not like he can’t squeeze that in if he wanted to. It doesn’t feel like the kind of move he’d make, as he’ll want to feature more of his own work, but the odds are short enough. You know what, let’s go with Yes, with him doing it as he’s moving across the field from one spot to another. You don’t win money betting on -3000 outcomes. You don’t win money betting on novelty props to begin with, but that’s another story entirely.
Post-Game Props
Color of Liquid Poured on Winning Coach
Purple (+135)
Orange (+250)
Yellow/Green/Lime (+275)
Blue (+600)
Red/Pink (+1200)
Clear/Water (+1800)
The fact that this is phrased as “color of liquid” always amuses me. It could be any liquid! Dunk a big ol’ vat of motor oil or a huge tub of nacho cheese on Nick Sirianni; it counts for the purposes of this prop. We don’t know what the Eagles would do, but we have a long enough track record for the Chiefs to develop a pattern. The last two years saw Reid dunked with purple stuff, which was purple’s first return to the big time since Tom Coughlin in Super Bowl XLVI. That being said, if you like some slightly longer odds, Reid did take an orange bath in Super Bowl LIV, and it’s the most common color (other than clear) to be used during the Super Bowl.
Number of Patties on Andy Reid’s Postgame Burger
Over 1.5 (-120)
Under 1.5 (-120)
Wait, they sell hamburgers with single patties now? That can’t be right. I think Reid has gotten a little tired of the cheeseburger jokes over the years, but I suppose that’s his fault for getting back to the Super Bowl over and over again and being subjected to the same Media Day questions over and over again. As for analysis, a Chiefs win would be a threepeat. Reid has joked, in the past, that a repeat Super Bowl win would require a double cheeseburger. Logically, a threepeat would need a triple cheeseburger in celebration. I mean, that’s just math. Take the over.
Will Jalen Hurts sing the Eagles anthem on field?
Yes (-200)
No (+150)
An important note on this one – it only counts if the Eagles win; otherwise, it’s no action and no bet. That makes Yes a much better proposition. He’s done it before, too – he did it when the Eagles won the NFC Championship two years ago. A Super Bowl reprise could certainly be in the cards, though I hope he’s learned to carry a tune since then.
OMG Is That Taylor Swift
Hello, Swifties! Last year, we made all sorts of jokes about trying to explain the basic concepts of football to fans just here for the Swift-Kelce romance, but honestly, a huge chunk of Taylor Swift fans now seem to have a better grasp of football than your average football fan – at the very least, they have a better grasp on football than I have on Taylor’s back catalogue, though I’ll continue to say Red was her best work and The Tortured Poets Department was a bit of a slog to get through. It was no Midnights, at any rate.
There are endless Taylor-related props out there. DraftKings has a fun selection of props themed on Swift song titles. I quite like I Knew You Were Trouble (Saquon Barkley to have 250+ combined yards at +1800), Exile (Noah Gray to have 2+ receptions in each half at +1600) and …Ready For It? (Travis Kelce to score on KC’s first drive at +1100), but those are veering dangerously close to actual football bets, and we don’t do that here. Instead…
How Long After Kickoff Until Taylor Swift Is Shown
Under 7.5 minutes (-130)
Over 7.5 minutes (-110)
FOX knows that Taylor is a huge draw, but also knows that a decent chunk of the fanbase is wary of Swift overload. As such, they’ll be judicious with how they unleash SwiftCam, saving it for blowout B roll, tense Chiefs moments, or Travis Kelce highlight plays. We’ll get our Swift shots out in pregame and take over 7.5 minutes before the director dials up a shot during game action.
Picture of Taylor Swift in Eagles Gear Be Shown
No (-2000)
Yes (+700)
There are a couple props based on Swift being an Eagles fan – she lived just outside of Philadelphia until she was 13, and she sings about her Eagles t-shirt in “Gold Rush”. There are a few reasonable reasons to change fandoms, and “dating the star tight end” probably qualifies, but head-to-head dueling shots of Swift in Chiefs and Eagles gear seems like something you might want cued up if the game goes into a blowout and you’re trying to fill time. At +700, I think the odds are decent enough we’ll get something going in or our of a commercial bumper in a game where they’re desperately trying to keep people’s attention, so let’s go yes.
Taylor Swift Song Tom Brady References First
Bad Blood (-150)
Blank Space (+200)
Karma (+300)
Shake it Off (+350)
There are a couple similar props – the first Swift song FOX goes to commercial with for example – but this is the most fun one because it also requires you to try to figure out how out of touch Brady is. Brady does not seem to be the most in-tune pop culture guy on the planet, but I’m sure during all that time he saves by not being allowed to speak to the teams before the game starts, he can have someone brainstorm a one-liner for him to read off a card. “Shake it Off” is still probably Taylor’s best-known song for the general public, and it fits in perfectly after a turnover or key drop, so let’s go there.
Postgame: Swift Say No to Travis Kelce Proposal
Yes (+5000)
You heartless monsters, they were meant to be together. This article is over.
