First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
The Wednesday start to this week’s Farmers insurance Open presents a bit of a challenge for PGA DFS hot takes, since I usually have a much better idea of what my exact lineup will look like than I do right now. Consequently, the hot takes may be a bit more vague than usual, but I am starting to get a clearer picture of how I want to attack the slate.
Course Fit: The 2025 Farmers Insurance Open
I love this model. It shows us that the difficulty of Torrey Pines helps separate the men from the boys (almost all categories are more predictive than usual), yet there’s also some separation for specific skills like distance and short-game prowess. The only issue is that the industry is fully aware of how important distance is here, so there’s no edge to be had by stacking bombers.
Hot Takes for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open
1. It’s a great week for balanced lineups
Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau have the two best GPP Scores on the slate, so by no means am I suggesting fading them, but I do think this week sets up well for lineups that start in the $9k range. The main reason for this is that I flat out dislike most value plays. This is a weird time of year where a lot of a player’s “recent form” can be composed of rounds without ShotLink, which throws off the projections a touch. For example, Matthias Schmid had three consecutive horrible events in late 2024, but none of them were tracked with ShotLink so we are probably over-projecting him. This can be said of many of the value plays with good GPP Scores, so ultimately I want to pay down as little as possible.
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