What if? A 2024 Fantasy Football Alternate History

The Colts are probably ending the season asking “What if?” What if Jonathan Taylor hadn’t dropped that ball before the goal line? What if their defense hadn’t overslept (I assume) before that Giants game?

The Seahawks are also playing the “What if” game. What if Geno Smith didn’t have 5 red-zone interceptions? What if their defense hadn’t overslept (I assume) before that Giants game?

(The Giants are weird.)

I’m also playing “What if.” I do it every year. What if the Tush Push had been banned? What if Jimmy Garoppolo had signed somewhere else? What if the Texans hadn’t traded DeAndre Hopkins?

Sure, this delves into fanfiction. But the Butterfly Effect of “change one thing and see what happens” is fascinating. As a general rule in this exercise, I don’t play “What if X had stayed healthy?” because once you start wishing around with injuries, you can do that with every team and 80% of players. This is just about situational stuff.

(Also: I’m only considering stats through Week 17, because — while the whole “records in 17-game seasons don’t count” stuff is nonsense — it does make comparisons easier, and also because I’m writing this before the Week 18 games.)

What If … The Bears Had Kept Matt Eberflus But Never Hired Shane Waldron?

There’s a fine needle to thread here, but once you notice it, you can’t not notice it. The Bears hired Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator this offseason (despite Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s … uh, less-than-enthusiastic endorsement), only to fire him after Week 10 on the heels of 27 points over three games in Weeks 7-9. The offense initially looked a bit better after that, but after the team’s clock management meltdown on Thanksgiving, they moved again, firing head coach Matt Eberflus. The move … did not fix things:

The results were bad regardless, but for a brief window in there, the offense looked good, and it did so against the toughest stretch of schedule any team was likely to face. So there was a sweet spot there where Thomas Brown had been promoted to offensive coordinator but hadn’t been Peter Principled to head coach (a ridiculous choice I criticized at the time). And most notable, the three games with Eberflus as HC and Brown as OC led to DJ Moore producing 22 receptions on 30 targets for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns in 3 games. He averaged 21.4 PPR points per game in that stretch, a number that would have been WR2 over the full season behind only Ja’Marr Chase. A DJ Moore who finished as WR2 instead of WR17 in fantasy would have made for a much more exciting Bears season.

What If … Trey McBride Could Find the End Zone?

Trey McBride had a receiving touchdown in Week 17. That wouldn’t be that remarkable (good player scores touchdown) if not for the fact that it was his first receiving touchdown of 2024 (I have to include the word “receiving” because he had a rushing score on a jet sweep in Week 9 and a fumble recovery TD in Week 2, but I digress). That was 1 touchdown on 136 targets, a scoring rate of 0.7%.

The rest of the top 12 tight ends scored 65 touchdowns on 1,014 targets, a 6.4% rate. If McBride had scored at that rate, he’d have had 8.7 receiving touchdowns. Call it 9. That would have been another 48 PPR points and taken McBride from the PPR TE3 (17.4 points behind Brock Bowers) to the overwhelming TE1 by more than 40 points. Even at the second-lowest rate among the top 12 (Hunter Henry’s 2.1%), he’d have scored another 2 touchdowns and battled Bowers. And just imagine if he had scored at the same rate as Mark Andrews (10 touchdowns on 61 targets, a whopping 16.4%). Obviously absurd, but McBride would have registered 22.3 touchdowns and blown away the all-time TE scoring record.

I’m not asking for 16.4%. But y’all, I’m also asking very strongly for no repeat of 0.7%.

What If … The Steelers Had Stuck with Justin Fields?

After Week 6, the Steelers were 4-2. They had beaten potential playoff teams Atlanta, Denver, the Chargers and Rams and were tied for first in the AFC North. It’s not a situation where most teams would make a quarterback switch, but the Steelers did it, going from offseason trade acquisition Justin Fields to offseason signing Russell Wilson. Fields hadn’t been expected to start, but Wilson battled a calf injury in the preseason and Fields got the gig. But even with that, Fields wasn’t Nick Mullens, an out-of-nowhere anonymous quarterback who produced thanks to a supporting case. He was a former first-rounder who many expected to be a starter somewhere in 2024. And he was 4-2.

The Steelers went 4-0 in Wilson’s first four starts and 6-1 in his first seven (with the loss coming in a blizzard) before losing three straight down the stretch against three Super Bowl contenders. In the end, the Steelers probably made the right choice going to Wilson. But it wasn’t a universally popular choice. So what if they had stuck with Fields? We can’t predict how the wins and losses might have changed, but we can look at some fantasy numbers:

Najee Harris is the same guy. Pat Freiermuth is basically the same guy. But thanks to his rushing, Fields was a better fantasy asset, with 19.1 fantasy points per game that would have been borderline top-10 number for the season, compared to Wilson’s more pedestrian 16.6 that is in the mid-teens. And also thanks to Fields’ rushing, a George Pickens with a full season of Justin Fields is a George Pickens who is wholly irrelevant to fantasy, while a George Pickens with a full season of Russell Wilson (you know, assuming Pickens had stayed healthy) is a borderline WR2.

What If … The Jaguars Had Used a 1-Receiver Offense?

Obviously that is not a realistic thing. But it’s a shorthand for “the Jaguars went from a lot of weapons to only one real one, and wooo, lookit.” Jacksonville entered the season with veteran Christian Kirk, offseason signing Gabe Davis, rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Evan Engram. As a drafting community, we didn’t really know how to handle that group. By ADP, Kirk was WR33, Thomas was WR48, Davis was WR59, Engram was TE7. We were guessing.

And, for the start of the season, so were the Jags. In Week 1, all four got at least 3 targets and none topped 4. But Engram missed four games after that, and then later, Davis missed time, Kirk was lost for the season, and then Davis returned and was lost again. And look how the target totals went:

I call that graph the “Brian Thomas Jr., wheeeeee!” chart. Again, obviously the Jags weren’t going to roll into 2024 with Thomas, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange as their top three weapons. But it’s worth noting that Thomas — who was very good early in the year — took things into a whole new stratosphere after the injuries. From Week 13 on, the only receivers who put up more PPR points than the rookie Thomas were Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson (holy crap, LSU). If we could have gotten that Thomas earlier in the year, he not only would have been a borderline WR1 heading into 2025, he’d have fought strongly for Offensive Rookie of the Year against Jayden Daniels and Brock Bowers.

What If … Mark Andrews’ Calendar Had September on It?

Mark Andrews is the No. 6 PPR tight end. That would have been “eh, fine, a little disappointing” if I had told you that in July. But considering Andrews played every Ravens game this season and entered October with 12.5 PPR points in four games, it’s a heck of a recovery.

To be clear, this one leans right up against wishing health on a player, because it’s hard to look at Andrews’ season and not conclude that his slow start had at least something to do with his preseason car accident, even if the Ravens never said as much. But if we take them at their word that Andrews was fine and he just started slow, the difference is stark: He first reached double-digit PPR points in a game in Week 6, also the game he scored his first touchdown of the season. From that point forward, Andrews scored 10 touchdowns in 11 games and topped 10 PPR points in all but two games. He averaged 13.8 PPR points per game after averaging 4.4 before that. Give him a 13.8 average for the season and Andrews jumps to TE4, behind only Brock Bowers, George Kittle and Trey McBride.

Another thing: Just about everyone’s fantasy league might have played out differently. Because with Andrews dragging, Isaiah Likely exploded in Week 1, going 9-111-1 on 12 targets and coming a toe away from a second touchdown. That led to bajillions of dollars of FAAB money spent on Likely in fantasy leagues, and he rewarded those investments with … not much. Imagine some manager in your league having a big chunk of FAAB later in the year.

Oh, and also … the Ravens started 0-2 by a combined 9 points with Andrews being basically a nonfactor. Give the team its best weapon at full strength in those games, and maybe we have a Ravens team going into Week 18 at 13-3, meaning Lamar Jackson is probably an easy MVP. And if they could have eked out the win in Week 1, we’d have the Chiefs at 14-2 instead of 15-1. We’d have a battle for the 1 seed! We were that close.

What If … The Rams Had Broken It Up?

With Puka Nacua getting hurt in Week 1 and Cooper Kupp in Week 2, the Rams started out behind the 8-ball. They were 1-4 entering their Week 5 bye. They beat the Raiders in Week 7, but then again it was the Raiders. The trade deadline was looming two weeks away, and there were worlds of rumors. Maybe Kupp would be traded. Maybe Blake Corum would take over as the RB1. Maybe any number of things. Chase Daniel even proposed the idea of trading Matthew Stafford and getting Bryce Young (It was a wild time, you had to be there.) Instead, the Rams got Nacua back, beat the Vikings by 10, squeaked out an OT win over the Seahawks and got to 4-4 ahead of the deadline, shutting the door on that conversation.

Imagine if the trades had happened. Kupp has been the forgotten man in this offense with Nacua being a superstar. But a team that traded for him would have done so with designs on using him. Imagine Kupp on … the Colts, perhaps. They could have been a playoff team, and Kupp would have dominated targets. Or the Steelers getting him instead of Mike Williams.

Now, imagine Daniel’s idea. He proposed Stafford go to the Dolphins (who had a hurt and enormously question-marky Tua Tagovailoa) in a three-teamer, with the Rams starting over with Bryce Young. Young has looked much better of late, but there’s simply no way the Rams make the playoffs with Young throwing to Nacua and a bunch of just-another-guys. Stafford in Miami would have unseated Tagovailoa, which might have unlocked guys like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and opened up a huge second trade in Tagovailoa.

And lastly, the Panthers would have been stuck starting Andy Dalton the rest of the way and been even more at sea entering 2025 than they already are. Basically … let’s be glad this didn’t happen. It would have made the entire season more confusing and likely less fun.