First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
I’m pretty much toast in these events like Circa Millions, but I’m going to soldier on and still try my best to provide good content related to them. I seem to be having a nice late season run at DFS, so maybe my betting picks will do well too.
Week 16 Circa Millions Picks
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5
I’m very much in agreement with the betting model as well as the betting public on laying the chalk here. There’s a lot of line value here since the line has steamed to 8.5 or 9 at most books as the public won’t stop betting on the Bengals. And why shouldn’t they?
You think Dorian Thompson-Robinson is going to light it up on offense even though he has never had a complete pass longer than 25 yards in an NFL game, and he’s never come close to even having 200 yards in an NFL game? Jameis Winston threw for 500 yards in a game with freaking Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore as his receivers. While Jameis had his faults, their offense now consists of a rookie who can’t throw the ball, mediocre receivers and Jerome Ford, who couldn’t beat out a one-legged Nick Chubb. Sometimes the public is just right.
Pittsburgh Steelers +6
I’m going against the betting model and public on this one. It will also be a very contrarian play since there’s no line value here. I just think this Steelers team is solid and last week was just a setback. The Ravens offense is great, but the defense is weak enough that the Steelers can keep this game.
New England Patriots +14
I’m going with the betting model and against the public on this final pick. Fourteen points is just a lot in football, even for this Bills team that can score at will. This is essentially the Super Bowl for the Patriots, and I can see them at least trying to keep it respectable, even if that means a lucky backdoor cover.
