The Report: Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 15

“Don’t get cute in the fantasy playoffs. Start your studs.”

You’ve heard that one before, I’m sure. But far too often, people hit me up with horror stories of how they overthought a matchup and sat a typical fantasy starter for a bench guy in a good matchup. That sort of play rarely works. When it does, you feel like a genius. But when it doesn’t, well, you feel like an idiot.

Sure, sometimes the wrong plays end up being the best plays. However, far more often, the right plays are better. Make those plays, and you’re going to win more often than you don’t. It isn’t worth trying to outsmart fantasy football because you’re never going to be able to do so on a consistent basis.

So, play your studs, sure. But more importantly, start your best players. For each start/sit decision you have this week, think about it over the long term. How likely is one player to outscore another player if you played this week out 100 times? Sure, a deep upside guy might be the higher scorer 35 times, but that means the other player is the better start 65% of the time. That’s a big-time edge that shouldn’t be faded.

But hey, if it doesn’t work out for you, don’t take it too hard. If you made the right plays and someone blows up on your bench, that’s out of your hands. At that point, it’s not your fault. The good news is that there’s always more fantasy football ahead.

Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.

Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.

LA Rams @ San Francisco

Matthew Stafford is on an impressive run, throwing 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his last four games. This marks the third time in his career that he has achieved 2-plus touchdown passes without an interception in four straight games. When Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all play, Stafford’s performance shines, with an 11-5 record, 4,381 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions over the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he offers very little with his legs and is more of a superflex option this week.

Puka Nacua became the fourth player since 2000 to record 150-plus receiving yards, a receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown in the same game. This was his fourth career 150-yard receiving game, trailing only Randy Moss and Jerry Rice (who had five each) over a player’s first two seasons since 1970. Nacua has 2,194 career receiving yards, second only to Odell Beckham Jr. in a player’s first 25 career games since 1970. He’s elite right now.

Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp returned to form last week with five receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown. Since returning in Week 8, he only has one fantasy finish outside the top 24. While he isn’t likely to match Nacua’s production, Kupp is still a top-15 option.

Kyren Williams has been a model of consistency, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 12 rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He joins Marshall Faulk and Todd Gurley as the only Rams players since 2000 to achieve this feat. With an NFL-high 29 touchdowns (24 rushing, 5 receiving) over the past two seasons, Williams is one of the league’s most productive red zone running backs. He isn’t doing much in the passing game but is still a fringe RB1.

Brock Purdy leads the NFL in yards per attempt (8.7) this season, continuing his trend after leading the league in 2023 with 9.6 yards per attempt. If he maintains this pace, he could become just the sixth player since 1970 to lead the league in this category in consecutive seasons, joining the likes of Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw and Ken Anderson. Purdy figures to be busy in this one and is a top-10 play.

George Kittle had a monster performance last week with six receptions for 151 yards. He became the third-fastest tight end in NFL history to reach 7,000 receiving yards, accomplishing the feat in his 109th game. Only Rob Gronkowski (100 games) and Travis Kelce (104 games) achieved this milestone faster. There are few who are better than Kittle right now.

Jauan Jennings has stepped up significantly in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, recording 90-plus receiving yards in three of his last five games. In six games without either Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. this season, Jennings has tallied 43 receptions, 545 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. If projected over a 17-game pace, this production equates to a staggering 122 receptions, 1,544 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Jennings is the top target and is worthy of fringe WR1 consideration.

Deebo Samuel Sr. is having a career-worst season, averaging just 53.8 scrimmage yards per game and a career-low 2.9 yards per rush. His efficiency has plummeted, with just 9% of his rushes resulting in a first down or touchdown compared to 35% last season. Samuel has also gone seven straight games without a touchdown, the longest drought of his career, and has posted 35 or fewer scrimmage yards in four consecutive games. Understandably, his stock has tumbled into WR3 territory.

As of now, Isaac Guerendo is questionable to play but appears to be on track to suit up. Guerendo impressed last week before exiting the game with a foot sprain. There’s always the potential for a setback if he manages to play, so fantasy managers will need to consider that risk. However, it’s completely fair to consider Guerendo a top-20 option in this matchup.