Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With 10 weeks of the NFL season in the books, it’s time to check in on the FTN Fantasy NFL Power Rankings. For the rest of the season, you can check out our rankings every week to see who is rising, who is falling and what it means for the future.
This isn’t just a simple ranking of the teams in order of DVOA. You can see that yourself on the DVOA page. These rankings obviously take DVOA into account, but there is also an opinion component, because opinions help contextualize raw statistics and take into account injury, personnel changes and anything else not captures by a simple number.
Our rankings are a composite of five things: DVOA, plus our own Marshall Gershon, Mike Randle, Daniel Kelley and Dane Martinez. These rankings will come out every Tuesday morning, after Monday Night Football and after that week’s DVOA update. Rankings are fun, of course, but they are also key for bettors. Check out our NFL Betting Model with the latest data, and our experts put all their top bets into the NFL Bet Tracker.
Check out the team-by-team rankings below, and then at the bottom you can view the full voting breakdown.
NFL Power Rankings Through Week 10
1. Detroit Lions (Average Score: 1.2)
Record: 8-1 (+113 point differential)
Week 10: Beat the Texans 26-23
Week 11: vs. Jacksonville
Surprised? Sure, the Chiefs are 9-0, but the Lions’s +113 point differential is nearly double the Chiefs’ +58. No other team is in triple digits by point differential, and before Sunday’s near-implosion, the Lions hadn’t even been playing close to most of their opponents. And even if Sunday was a sign the team is regressing, they get the Jaguars, Colts and Bears the next three weeks, so even a lessened Lions team is a heavy favorite to get to 11-1.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (2.4)
Record: 9-0 (+58)
Week 10: Beat the Broncos 16-14
Week 11: @ Buffalo
Insert “Can’t keep getting away with this!” gif here, as the Chiefs keep on winning despite only two wins coming by more than one score all season. There are two ways things can go from here: Either the wins that the Chiefs have been eking out stop getting eked and the record declines, or the Patrick Mahomes-led offense catches up with the defense and the Chiefs start to put some distance between them and their opponents. We might start to get some answers this week against the Bills.
3. Baltimore Ravens (2.8)
Record: 7-3 (+65)
Week 10: Beat the Bengals 35-34
Week 11: @ Pittsburgh
If this were a rank of units, the Ravens’ offense might be No. 1. But the defense is struggling and holding the overall ranking back a bit. We’ll learn a lot this week with the battle for AFC North supremacy against Pittsburgh.
4. Buffalo Bills (4.2)
Record: 8-2 (+97)
Week 10: Beat the Colts 30-20
Week 11: vs. Kansas City
The Bills were supposed to take a step back this season after all the cap moves this offseason. Guess not!
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6.4)
Record: 7-2 (+69)
Week 10: Beat the Commanders 28-27
Week 11: vs. Baltimore
Remember when the move to Russell Wilson was excoriated online (not universally, but still)? Seems to be going OK so far.
6. Washington Commanders (7.0)
Record: 7-3 (+73)
Week 10: Los to the Steelers 28-27
Week 11: @ Philadelphia (Thursday)
Signs of light concern? Before the Week 7 rib injury, Jayden Daniels had a 107.1 passer rating and 10.5 rushing attempts per game. In three games since, those numbers are 92.4 and 6.3, respectively. Those are not “bad quarterback” numbers by any stretch, but they also aren’t “MVP candidate” numbers.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (7.4)
Record: 7-2 (+72)
Week 10: Beat the Cowboys 34-6
Week 11: vs. Washington (Thursday)
Bills-Chiefs, Ravens-Steelers, Eagles-Commanders. Six of the top seven teams in our rankings face off this week. That’s wild.
8. San Francisco 49ers (8.4)
Record: 5-4 (+31)
Week 10: Beat the Buccaneers 23-20
Week 11: vs. Seattle
This ranking is the most “what we thought in the preseason” ranking in the list, because the 49ers still haven’t won in consecutive weeks this season and haven’t won by more than a score in more than a month. But with Christian McCaffrey back and Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall doing a competent Brandon Aiyuk impression, the 49ers are rounding into form.
T9. Green Bay Packers (9.8)
Record: 6-3 (+36)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: @ Chicago
The Packers have three losses: against the Eagles in Brazil when Jordan Love got hurt, against the Vikings in Love’s first game back (quickly!), and at the hands of the No. 1 team in our rankings, the Lions. This 6-3 might shoot to 12-5 without anything really changing.
T9. Los Angeles Chargers (9.8)
Record: 6-3 (+68)
Week 10: Beat the Titans 27-17
Week 11: vs. Cincinnati (Sunday night)
Chargers games are averaging 33.8 points per game, comfortably lowest in the league. Broncos games are the next-lowest at 37.4. That gap between first and second is roughly the same as the gap between second and 10th (Minnesota, 42.0).
11. Minnesota Vikings (11.2)
Record: 7-2 (+64)
Week 10: Beat the Jaguars 12-7
Week 11: @ Tennessee
Sam Darnold had five interceptions in his first seven games and five more in his last two. The Vikings have won both games, but then that was over Indianapolis and Jacksonville and they scored only 33 points in those games combined, so all is not well despite the 7-2 record.
12. Houston Texans (11.6)
Record: 6-4 (-2)
Week 10: Lost to the Lions 26-23
Week 11: @ Dallas (Monday)
Will the return of Nico Collins fix the Texans offense? They certainly need it to.
13. Arizona Cardinals (12.2)
Record: 6-4 (+18)
Week 10: Beat the Jets 31-6
Week 11: Bye
Four-game winning streak, culminating in a beatdown of the Jets last week, heading into the bye. Things have taken a big turn to the good in Arizona.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (14.4)
Record: 4-6 (+8)
Week 10: Lost to the Ravens 35-34
Week 11: @ LA Chargers (Sunday night)
Any concerns about the offense have been pretty thoroughly put to bed, with the Bengals scoring 75 points the last two weeks. That’ll be tested against the Chargers, as will the alarmingly porous defense.
15. Denver Broncos (14.6)
Record: 5-5 (+20)
Week 10: Lost to the Chiefs 16-14
Week 11: vs. Atlanta
First 0-2, then 3-2, then 5-3, now 5-5. Anyone who thinks they really know where the Broncos will go from here is lying.
16. Atlanta Falcons (15.2)
Record: 6-4 (+2)
Week 10: Lost to the Saints 20-17
Week 11: @ Denver
The Falcons losing to the Saints last week is one of the more inexplicable results of the season. If they drop another in Week 11, the alarm bells will start to sound.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16.6)
Record: 4-6 (+13)
Week 10: Lost to the 49ers 23-20
Week 11: Bye
The Buccaneers held their own against San Francisco last week, with Baker Mayfield providing one of the highlights of the year. If Mike Evans can return healthy after the bye, it could get interesting.
18. Los Angeles Rams (16.8)
Record: 4-5 (-32)
Week 10: Lost to the Dolphins 23-15
Week 11: @ New England
Was Monday’s loss more bad news for the Rams or a sign the Dolphins are righting the shift? We’ll see, but that had to be deflating in Los Angeles
19. Seattle Seahawks (18.6)
Record: 4-5 (-32)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: @ San Francisco
Since starting 3-0, the Seahawks are 1-5 with a -62 point differential. If our power rankings started with Week 4, they might be bottom-five. We’ll see if the bye week gets things turned in the right direction.
20. Indianapolis Colts (19.4)
Record: 4-6 (-15)
Week 10: Lost to the Bills 30-20
Week 11: @ NY Jets
The vibes in Indianapolis are way worse than “4-6 (-15)” might indicate. The Colts desperately need to figure out some way to have success at the QB position, whether it’s getting Joe Flacco going or putting trust back in Anthony Richardson.
21. Miami Dolphins (20.6)
Record: 3-6 (-55)
Week 10: Beat the Rams 23-15
Week 11: vs. Las Vegas
In games Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished, the Dolphins are 2-2 with 24.3 points per game. In the other games, they are 1-4 with 10.0. Might be too little, too late, but the Dolphins are the 3-6 (or worse) team with the best chance at making a run.
T22. Chicago Bears (23.4)
Record: 4-5 (+8)
Week 10: Lost to the Patriots 19-3
Week 11: vs. Chicago
Something had to change in Chicago, and it happened Tuesday with the firing of Shane Waldron. Matt Eberflus certainly sees the writing on the wall for the end of the year.
T22. New Orleans Saints (23.4)
Record: 3-7 (-19)
Week 10: Beat the Falcons 20-17
Week 11: vs. Cleveland
Remember after Week 2 when the Saints were the most exciting team in the league? Good times.
24. New York Jets (24.0)
Record: 3-7 (-37)
Week 10: Lost to the Cardinals 31-6
Week 11: vs. Indianapolis
For a team commanding so many headlines, there just isn’t much to say at this point. The Jets aren’t very good. There’s not much reason to expect that to get fixed.
25. Cleveland Browns (25.0)
Record: 2-7 (-65)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: @ New Orleans
The Browns are done, but at least the change to Jameis Winston has made things more interesting.
26. Tennessee Titans (26.8)
Record: 2-7 (-83)
Week 10: Lost to the Chargers 27-17
Week 11: vs. Minnesota
The Titans bringing in somewhat older guys like Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard and Tyler Boyd this offseason appeared to signal they believed they were close. They certainly are not.
27. New England Patriots (27.0)
Record: 3-7 (-60)
Week 10: Beat the Bears 19-3
Week 11: vs. LA Rams
The vibes in New England are so much better than 3-7 might indicate, because the team feels like it has its long-term quarterback in Drake Maye. That helps so much.
28. Dallas Cowboys (27.8)
Record: 3-6 (-82)
Week 10: Lost to the Eagles 34-6
Week 11: vs. Houston (Monday)
With Dak Prescott done for the year, no one would be shocked if the Cowboys lost out. But CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons and (when he returns) DeMarcus Lawrence are still better than the vast majority of bottom-dwelling teams can through out there.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (28.0)
Record: 2-8 (-62)
Week 10: Lost to the Vikings 12-7
Week 11: @ Detroit
If Trevor Lawrence is done long term, even 29th is an over-rank. We’ll see.
30. Carolina Panthers (29.4)
Record: 3-7 (-143)
Week 10: Beat the Giants 20-17
Week 11: Bye
The Panthers have the worst point differential in the league by a full 60 points. On the other hand, they’re on a two-game winning streak. On the other-other hand, those two wins were by a combined 4 points. They’re bad. Exactly how bad is up to interpretation.
31. New York Giants (29.8)
Record: 2-8 (-66)
Week 10: Lost to the Panthers 20-17
Week 11: Bye
The Giants just lost to a team with the worst point differential in the league by a lot and head into their bye with a porous offensive line and no idea who will start at quarterback in Week 12. It’s really bad.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (30.8)
Record: 2-7 (-83)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: @ Miami
Speaking of unknowns, the Raiders haven’t announced who will call the plays after the firing of OC Luke Getsy or who will start at QB between the benched-once-already Gardner Minshew II and the just-grabbed-off-the-scrap-heap Desmond Ridder There aren’t any good answers.
Check out the full voting below.
