NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% owned receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 8
1. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
It’s been a minute since a RB has led the slate in GPP Score, but that’s exactly what we have so far this week with Bijan Robinson. The touchdowns are finally going Bijan’s way, adding upside to the stability in his yardage and receptions. Bijan’s usage last week was also encouraging, particularly in the second half. People are afraid of the uncertainty here with Tyler Allgeier being mixed in, but I actually don’t think there’s much uncertainty at all. If Atlanta wins big, Allgeier will get a lot of touches. The more competitive the game, or if Atlanta is trailing, the more Bijan will dominate snaps. This essentially means that if using Bijan, you want a TB bringback.
2. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas has an incredibly valuable role in Jacksonville. He’s getting a lot of the shorter targets, but he’s also the go-to guy on deep balls and in the red zone. He has the top WR GPP Score and this is a smash-spot for the entire Green Bay offense so Jacksonville is likely to have to throw the ball a lot.
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