Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Based on the current version of DVOA, the Detroit Lions have never been the No. 1 team at the end of any week. That is a record that stretches back 45 years, all the way back to 1979. The Lions have been No. 2 a few times. They were No. 2 after Week 6 last season, and most prominently they were No. 2 for the first four weeks of 1980. But they have never been on top.
It looked like we finally had the Lions in the top spot after their exciting 31-29 victory over division rival — and previous No. 1 team — the Minnesota Vikings. DVOA liked the Lions win more than the final score, giving them 38.5% DVOA for the game as opposed to just 5.2% for the Vikings. All the Lions needed was for the Ravens to not blow out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
Yeah, the Ravens weren’t going along with that. An onside kick and some late scoring obscured how big the Ravens win really was, and they ended up with 84.2% DVOA for a 41-31 victory over an above-average Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. So Lions fans will need to wait at least one more week, because the Baltimore Ravens are back on top as the No. 1 team in our DVOA ratings.
The Ravens’ win comes out as one of the top five single games so far this season. Of course, so does last week’s Detroit win over the Dallas Cowboys.
- 90% DVOA Week 4 – WAS 42, ARI 14
- 86% DVOA Week 3 – BUF 47, JAX 10
- 84% DVOA Week 7 – BAL 41, TB 31
- 84% DVOA Week 7 – DEN 33, NO 10
- 82% DVOA Week 6 – DET 47, DAL 9
Baltimore’s stellar offense is now up among the best offenses ever measured by DVOA through seven games. Check out how well-balanced the Ravens offense is:
| BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA THROUGH 7 GAMES, 1979-2024 | ||||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | OFF DVOA |
RK | PASS DVOA |
RK | RUN DVOA |
RK |
| 1999 | WAS | 5-2 | 42.9% | 1 | 72.5% | 1 | 27.4% | 1 |
| 2007 | NE | 7-0 | 40.7% | 1 | 82.3% | 1 | 8.8% | 8 |
| 1998 | DEN | 7-0 | 38.3% | 1 | 74.8% | 1 | 27.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | BAL | 5-2 | 37.2% | 1 | 73.0% | 1 | 25.2% | 1 |
| 2004 | IND | 4-3 | 37.0% | 1 | 71.4% | 1 | 7.8% | 5 |
| 1982 | SD | 5-2 | 36.7% | 1 | 66.5% | 1 | 9.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | KC | 3-4 | 36.6% | 1 | 55.1% | 1 | 24.2% | 2 |
| 2000 | STL | 6-1 | 36.2% | 1 | 56.4% | 2 | 31.7% | 1 |
| 1992 | SF | 6-1 | 35.6% | 1 | 65.4% | 1 | 11.5% | 3 |
| 2018 | KC | 6-1 | 35.2% | 1 | 71.3% | 1 | 0.9% | 6 |
| 2013 | DEN | 6-1 | 35.1% | 1 | 70.6% | 1 | -2.5% | 8 |
| 2000 | IND | 5-2 | 34.4% | 2 | 61.7% | 1 | 19.1% | 2 |
I should add that not all the advanced stats agree with DVOA on the Ravens. Raw EPA measurements still have the Washington Commanders as the offense setting records this year, rather than the Ravens. I explored some of these issues in the DVOA commentary a couple of weeks ago. ESPN FPI does have the Ravens as the top offense but with a smaller gap than you see in DVOA.
The Lions stay at No. 2 and are a more balanced team than the Ravens. Detroit ranks in the top five for both offense and defense. If you look at pass/rush splits and special teams, the Lions are above average in all five phases of the game, with the lowest rank being 13th in run defense. The Kansas City Chiefs, who climb in DVOA but stay at No. 4, are also above average in all five phases, with their lowest ranking being — this is shocking, of course — 12th in pass offense. Between the Lions and the Chiefs are the Minnesota Vikings at No. 3, dropping two spots after losing to the Lions.
Major climbers in the DVOA ranks this week include the Washington Commanders, who move up from 12th to sixth, and the Denver Broncos, who move up from 18th to 10th. Do we have to take the Broncos seriously now? Their offense led by rookie Bo Nix still ranks just 24th in DVOA but the defense is now third and the special teams unit is second despite the adjustments for playing home games at altitude.
It wasn’t a good week for some NFC contenders, especially in the NFC South. San Francisco is down from No. 5 to No. 9, Tampa Bay drops from No. 9 to No. 13, and Atlanta drops from No. 10 to No. 16. But the big colossal drop belongs to the New Orleans Saints, who go from No. 11 to No. 21. Two weeks ago before Derek Carr got hurt, the Saints were fourth! The Saints are now below average on both offense and defense, propped up a little bit by the No. 3 special teams unit.
Year of the Bad Teams
Then at the bottom of the league, we have some bad teams. We have some very, very bad teams. Does it feel like the worst teams this year are even worse than usual? That’s because they are.
Five teams this week come in with DVOA below -30%. Las Vegas and Miami rank 28th and 29th. Then the other three teams are below -40%: New England, Cleveland, and Carolina.
This is only the third season since 1979 where at least five teams had DVOA below -30% after Week 7. In 1996, when there were only 30 teams in the league, five different teams were below -30% at this point in the season. And then in 2009, eight different teams had DVOA below -30% after Week 7. 2009 was a pretty wild year where the top teams were really strong and the bottom teams were really, really weak. Four teams were above 30%, including the Colts and Saints who would challenge for undefeated regular seasons that year. Eleven different teams had DVOA above 20% after Week 7 (compared to, say, five this season). As far as the eight teams at the bottom in 2009, there’s some hope for the currently awful teams in there. Both Carolina and Tennessee rebounded to finish 8-8 despite their terrible starts. In the current NFL, that could be 9-8 and a playoff spot!
The really bad teams this year are also the reason why 18 of 32 NFL teams are currently above average according to DVOA. All the averages are getting weighed down by those five really bad teams.
Full DVOA Table after Week 7
These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through seven weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 70% strength.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. The projections are adjusted for a few quarterback changes as well as injuries and trades. DAVE is currently 55% preseason forecast and 45% actual performance for teams with six games and 50% forecast with 50% actual performance for teams with seven games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 40.5% | 3 | 29.5% | 1 | 5-2 | 37.2% | 1 | -4.0% | 13 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 2 | DET | 35.9% | 2 | 19.2% | 3 | 5-1 | 19.7% | 4 | -12.9% | 5 | 3.3% | 8 |
| 3 | MIN | 34.5% | 1 | 13.6% | 7 | 5-1 | 2.4% | 15 | -30.4% | 1 | 1.7% | 11 |
| 4 | KC | 29.4% | 4 | 21.8% | 2 | 6-0 | 12.7% | 7 | -14.7% | 4 | 2.0% | 9 |
| 5 | BUF | 23.4% | 7 | 18.6% | 4 | 5-2 | 21.0% | 2 | -8.8% | 9 | -6.4% | 30 |
| 6 | WAS | 19.2% | 12 | 7.0% | 11 | 5-2 | 20.3% | 3 | 6.3% | 23 | 5.2% | 5 |
| 7 | HOU | 19.2% | 6 | 16.1% | 5 | 5-2 | -1.8% | 18 | -17.7% | 2 | 3.3% | 7 |
| 8 | GB | 18.5% | 8 | 12.5% | 8 | 5-2 | 17.0% | 5 | -4.5% | 12 | -2.9% | 27 |
| 9 | SF | 15.0% | 5 | 16.0% | 6 | 3-4 | 11.4% | 9 | -11.2% | 6 | -7.6% | 31 |
| 10 | DEN | 14.4% | 18 | 2.8% | 13 | 4-3 | -7.8% | 24 | -15.6% | 3 | 6.6% | 2 |
| 11 | SEA | 13.4% | 14 | 8.0% | 10 | 4-3 | 11.3% | 10 | -0.2% | 15 | 1.9% | 10 |
| 12 | CIN | 10.4% | 13 | 9.0% | 9 | 3-4 | 12.9% | 6 | 4.1% | 20 | 1.6% | 12 |
| 13 | TB | 9.9% | 9 | 4.1% | 12 | 4-3 | 11.4% | 8 | -1.3% | 14 | -2.8% | 26 |
| 14 | PIT | 9.6% | 16 | 1.0% | 14 | 5-2 | -4.4% | 19 | -8.1% | 10 | 5.9% | 4 |
| 15 | LAC | 5.7% | 15 | -5.1% | 21 | 3-3 | -5.0% | 20 | -9.5% | 8 | 1.1% | 13 |
| 16 | ATL | 3.5% | 10 | -0.9% | 17 | 4-3 | 10.1% | 11 | 6.4% | 24 | -0.2% | 18 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | CHI | 2.1% | 17 | -4.6% | 20 | 4-2 | -9.6% | 25 | -10.6% | 7 | 1.1% | 14 |
| 18 | PHI | 1.0% | 20 | 0.3% | 15 | 4-2 | 5.9% | 12 | 3.1% | 18 | -1.8% | 22 |
| 19 | IND | -2.1% | 19 | -6.3% | 23 | 4-3 | 2.1% | 16 | 4.8% | 22 | 0.5% | 15 |
| 20 | ARI | -2.2% | 22 | -6.6% | 24 | 3-4 | 4.7% | 13 | 6.8% | 26 | -0.1% | 17 |
| 21 | NO | -4.0% | 11 | -1.8% | 19 | 2-5 | -6.2% | 23 | 3.7% | 19 | 5.9% | 3 |
| 22 | LAR | -9.6% | 25 | -1.6% | 18 | 2-4 | 1.9% | 17 | 9.8% | 28 | -1.6% | 20 |
| 23 | DAL | -12.0% | 24 | 0.2% | 16 | 3-3 | -11.1% | 26 | 11.9% | 29 | 11.0% | 1 |
| 24 | NYG | -13.3% | 23 | -14.4% | 28 | 2-5 | -6.2% | 22 | 1.2% | 16 | -5.9% | 29 |
| 25 | NYJ | -15.0% | 21 | -5.1% | 22 | 2-5 | -5.0% | 21 | 4.6% | 21 | -5.3% | 28 |
| 26 | JAX | -17.0% | 27 | -7.6% | 25 | 2-5 | 4.3% | 14 | 24.8% | 32 | 3.5% | 6 |
| 27 | TEN | -23.0% | 26 | -13.7% | 27 | 1-5 | -21.5% | 27 | -7.1% | 11 | -8.6% | 32 |
| 28 | LV | -33.2% | 28 | -21.7% | 29 | 2-5 | -22.8% | 29 | 8.3% | 27 | -2.0% | 23 |
| 29 | MIA | -34.9% | 31 | -9.8% | 26 | 2-4 | -26.5% | 31 | 6.7% | 25 | -1.7% | 21 |
| 30 | NE | -40.8% | 29 | -25.8% | 31 | 1-6 | -23.4% | 30 | 17.7% | 30 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 31 | CLE | -45.0% | 32 | -22.5% | 30 | 1-6 | -40.2% | 32 | 2.0% | 17 | -2.8% | 25 |
| 32 | CAR | -47.7% | 30 | -29.5% | 32 | 1-6 | -22.2% | 28 | 22.9% | 31 | -2.7% | 24 |
