Moves to Make Now in Dynasty Fantasy Football (10/18)

We are right in the thick of things. As the dust settles from the shuffling expectations of the start of the fantasy football season, the opportunity arises to find some killer value. Don’t be afraid to flip a player if they go from undervalued to overvalued quickly. In fact, one such case is in this edition of “Dynasty Moves to Make.”

As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for a 25% off coupon for Spirit Halloween and Colson Yankoff Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.

Dynasty Moves to Make: Sells

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you read this series weekly (first off, thank you), you’ll remember I had Baker Mayfield as a buy after his four-touchdown performance in Week 1. He’s continued to play at a high level, leading the NFL in touchdown passes through the first six weeks, and currently sits as the QB2 in fantasy. So why am I flipping so quickly on him? His value will likely never be higher, and I fear his performance is unsustainable.

Per FTN StatsHub, Mayfield has the second-lowest average depth of target (11.2 yards) and deep throw rate (6.3%) in the league. It’s going to be tough to remain among the league leaders in touchdown passes with that large of a deficiency in big play opportunities. Mayfield’s peaks have been met with plenty of valleys as well. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards in 50% of his games and is tied for the third-highest total of interceptions thrown with five. I’m not saying dump Mayfield at a discount or as fast as possible. If I were to go back a few weeks knowing what I know now, Baker would still be a buy. He was undervalued then, but he’s become overvalued in a few short weeks. Buy low, sell high, as they say.

Players I’d be willing to trade Baker for 1 for 1: Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, J.J. McCarthy

Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

A few months ago, in this series’ first world-renowned “Check the Wire” edition, I recommended picking up Alexander Mattison in case Zamir White “falters or goes down to injury.” Well… both happened. Mattison was outplaying and out-touching White before a groin injury forced him to miss Weeks 5 and 6. With White out, Mattison stepped into the role we had hoped for when picking him up as a bench stash. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news stops.

As the Raiders starting running back over the last two weeks, Mattison has been abysmal. His 2.4 yards per carry is tied for third worst over that span. The Raiders are a dumpster fire, and he’s running against one of the highest stuffed rates in the league at 31%. So it’s not entirely his doing, but he’s not helping himself, either. You and I have the same avoided tackle rate as Mattison in Weeks 5 and 6 and just as many explosive runs. I’d consider picking up Mattison from the wire a success, even with his suboptimal play. White likely returns soon, and even if he continues to get touches, Mattison isn’t going to do much of anything in Vegas. Look for a league mate in desperate need of a warm body to start at running back due to injury and/or bye weeks and take anything of value for him.

Players I’d be willing to trade Mattison for 1 for 1: Justice Hill, Michael Wilson, Keaton Mitchell