MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
We ran the FTN MLB Model, and our National League Championship Series projections are posted below. The American League Championship Series Preview Projections will be live Monday.
National League Championship Series
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are hosting the NLCS as decent favorites, just as many expected since about February. The market shows the Dodgers with about a 64% implied probability of advancing to the World Series. LA came back from a 2-1 series deficit against the Padres, thanks mostly to their pitching. The Dodgers’ staff shut out the Padres offense for the final 24 innings of the NLDS.
Los Angeles’ opponent is not one that many thought would make this far. The Mets beat their division rival Phillies to advance to the NL Championship. New York’s path was a little bumpier than LA’s, with the Mets getting here mostly thanks to Franisco Lindor and Grimace. New York finished the Phillies in four games, with Lindor’s epic grand slam putting his squad up for good.
The Dodgers took the regular season series 4-2 over the Mets, but we all know the postseason is a different animal. The FTN MLB Model sees some value with the Dodgers in this best of seven.
Postseason Hitting | Pitching
- Mets: 104 wRC+ | 3.68 SIERA
- Dodgers: 91 wRC+ | 4.19 SIERA
Schedule
- Game 1: Sunday, October 13, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Monday, October 14, 4:08 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Wednesday, October 16, 8:08 p.m. ET
- Game 4: Thursday, October 17, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 18, TBD
- Game 6 (if necessary): Sunday, October 20, TBD
- Game 7 (if necessary): Monday October 21, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Kodai Senga vs. Jack Flaherty
- Game 2: Sean Manaea vs. Walker Buehler
- Game 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Luis Severino
- Game 4: Landon Knack vs. Jose Quintana
- Game 5: Jack Flaherty vs. Kodai Senga
- Game 6: Sean Manaea vs. Walker Buehler
- Game 7: Luis Severino vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Mets +148 vs. Dodgers -176
- Spread: Mets +1.5 -156 — Dodgers -1.5 +122
- Total Games: 5.5 (-184/+148)
Mets vs. Dodgers Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Kodai Senga (Mets) | 3.81 | 38.6% | +159 |
| Jack Flaherty (Dodgers) | 4.81 | 61.4% | -159 |
| Game 2 | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Sean Manaea (Mets) | 3.60 | 41.8% | +139 |
| Walker Buehler (Dodgers) | 4.25 | 58.2% | -139 |
| Game 3 | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) | 4.56 | 58.3% | -140 |
| Luis Severino (Mets) | 3.86 | 41.7% | +140 |
| Game 4 | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Landon Knack (Dodgers) | 4.48 | 55.4% | -124 |
| Jose Quintana (Mets) | 4.02 | 44.6% | +124 |
| Game 5 (if necessary) | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Jack Flaherty (Dodgers) | 4.47 | 54.3% | -119 |
| Kodai Senga (Mets) | 4.10 | 45.7% | +119 |
| Game 6 (if necessary) | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Sean Manaea (Mets) | 3.62 | 42.4% | +136 |
| Walker Buehler (Dodgers) | 4.22 | 57.6% | -136 |
| Game 7 (if necessary) | Runs | Win% | xLine |
| Luis Severino (Mets) | 3.27 | 34.8% | +188 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) | 4.48 | 65.2% | -188 |
Mets vs. Dodgers Series Overview
| Series Outcome | xWIN% | xLine |
| NYM in 4 | 3.0% | +3235 |
| LAD in 4 | 11.6% | +762 |
| NYM in 5 | 7.6% | +1216 |
| LAD in 5 | 18.1% | +452 |
| NYM in 6 | 10.1% | +890 |
| LAD in 6 | 19.7% | +408 |
| NYM in 7 | 10.0% | +900 |
| LAD in 7 | 19.1% | +424 |
| NYM | 31.5% | +217 |
| LAD | 68.5% | -217 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
