MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
We ran the FTN MLB Model and our American League Championship Series projections are posted below. Check out the National League Championship Series Preview.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
To the surprise of absolutely nobody, American League preseason favorite New York Yankees have home field advantage in the ALCS, hosting the AL Central champion Guardians. In a rematch of the 2022 ALDS, Cleveland is a large underdog to Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers. The Guardians came back from a 2-1 series deficit to defeat the division rival Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS Saturday. Cleveland needed to empty their bullpen to finish off the Tigers, all while the Yankees were at home resting after finishing off the Royals in four games Thursday night.
Both clubs have superb pitching staffs, but the Yankees advantage in this series is at the dish. Jose Ramirez was walked six times in the ALDS, we’ll see if the Yankees take a similar approach this series, daring someone other than Ramirez to beat them. The Guardians pitching staff won’t be able to take a similar approach, as the Yankees lineup is much deeper and they don’t have the luxury of being able to pitch around both Juan Soto and Judge. The Yankees took the season series 4-2 over Stephen Vogt’s club.
The FTN MLB Model sees the Yankees handling their business and earning a trip to the World Series.
Postseason Hitting | Pitching
- Guardians: 100 wRC+ | 3.87 SIERA
- Yankees: 117 wRC+ | 3.93 SIERA
Schedule
- Game 1: Monday, October 14, 7:38 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Tuesday, October 15, 7:38 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Thursday, October 17, TBD
- Game 4: Friday, October 18, TBD
- Game 5 (if necessary): Saturday, October 19, TBD
- Game 6 (if necessary): Monday, October 21, TBD
- Game 7 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 22, TBD
Probable Starters
- Game 1: Alex Cobb vs. Carlos Rodón
- Game 2: Tanner Bibee vs. Gerrit Cole
- Game 3: Clarke Schmidt vs. Matthew Boyd
- Game 4: Luis Gil vs. Gavin Williams
- Game 5: Carlos Rodón vs. Alex Cobb
- Game 6: Tanner Bibee vs. Gerrit Cole
- Game 7: Matthew Boyd vs. Clarke Schmidt
Series Prices
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Winner: Guardians +172 vs. Yankees -205
- Spread: Guardians +1.5 -1.0 — Yankees-1.5 +102
- Total Games: 5.5 (-175/+140)
Guardians vs. Yankees Game-By-Game Overview
| Game 1 | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Alex Cobb (Guardians) | 3.39 | 37.6% | +166 |
| Carlos Rodón (Yankees) | 4.37 | 62.4% | -166 |
| Game 2 | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Tanner Bibee (Guardians) | 3.31 | 37.8% | +165 |
| Gerrit Cole (Yankees) | 4.25 | 62.2% | -165 |
| Game 3 | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) | 4.25 | 57.4% | -135 |
| Matthew Boyd (Guardians) | 3.66 | 42.6% | +135 |
| Game 4 | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Luis Gil (Yankees) | 4.28 | 55.3% | -124 |
| Gavin Williams (Guardians) | 3.85 | 44.7% | +124 |
| Game 5 (if necessary) | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Carlos Rodón (Yankees) | 4.17 | 58.0% | -138 |
| Alex Cobb (Guardians) | 3.55 | 42.0% | +138 |
| Game 6 (if necessary) | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Tanner Bibee (Guardians) | 3.29 | 37.7% | +165 |
| Gerrit Cole (Yankees) | 4.23 | 62.3% | -165 |
| Game 7 (if necessary) | xRuns | xWIN% | xLINE |
| Matthew Boyd (Guardians) | 3.28 | 34.4% | +191 |
| Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) | 4.53 | 65.6% | -191 |
Guardians vs. Yankees Series Overview
| Series Outcome | xWIN% | xLine |
| CLE in 4 | 2.7% | +3604 |
| NYY in 4 | 12.4% | +706 |
| CLE in 5 | 6.6% | +1415 |
| NYY in 5 | 19.6% | +410 |
| CLE in 6 | 9.0% | +1011 |
| NYY in 6 | 21.6% | +363 |
| CLE in 7 | 9.7% | +931 |
| NYY in 7 | 18.2% | +449 |
| CLE | 28.2% | +255 |
| NYY | 71.8% | -255 |
Projected starters are not yet official and usage may be adjusted. Check out the FTN MLB Model for updated projections.
