NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 6

This game stinks, y’all.

It doesn’t. It’s a good game. But when I’m here to give the supposed expert advice and I’m a cool 2-3 after five weeks? This game stinks.

Anyway, we’re on to Week 6 of the silliest NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator season of all time, and I’m going to keep plugging along and looking dumb (or maybe pivoting and looking smart!) for as long as I can. Follow my picks. They aren’t drawn out of a hat. There’s actual thought going into it. That thought hasn’t worked out so far, but believing in your process means sticking with it.

So we’re back for Week 6.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 6

We have four easy eliminations — the teams on bye:

Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Rams
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings

Mixed bag here, because at least I can’t pick these teams and be wrong … but there are two undefeated teams in the NFL, and both are on a bye. Taking away theoretical picks there, folks.

They’re Too Bad

Some parts of my process haven’t worked out, but I am flatly determined to have a handful of teams each week I just refuse to pick. Some will win. The Jaguars, Dolphins and Giants did from this section last week. This isn’t a prediction that these teams will all lose. It’s just that they’re so bad that I couldn’t confidently pick them.

Arizona Cardinals (@ Green Bay)
Carolina Panthers (vs. Atlanta)
Cleveland Browns (@ Philadelphia)
Indianapolis Colts (@ Tennessee)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Chicago in London)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Pittsburgh)
New England Patriots (vs. Houston)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay)
New York Giants (vs. Cincinnati)
New York Jets (vs. Buffalo)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Indianapolis)

Thursday/London

These games get weird, a lot weirder than Sunday or Monday nights. I’m out on these games unless I feel forced.

San Francisco 49ers (@ Seattle)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. San Francisco)
Chicago Bears (vs. Jacksonville in London)

Bit-by-Bit

I don’t feel comfortable eliminating teams in broad swaths from here, so I’m going to go through teams I’m eliminating for simple reasons before we get to the ones we have to really think about.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. Washington)

The Ravens have looked pretty darn impeccable the last three weeks, but remember that they started 0-2. And that defense is rocky. Are you ready to bet against our future overlord Jayden Daniels?

Buffalo Bills (@ NY Jets)

CINCINNATI, OH - NOVEMBER 05: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to pass during the game against the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals on November 5, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – NOVEMBER 05: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to pass during the game against the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals on November 5, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

The Bills were worldbeaters … until they weren’t. Now they’re 3-2, with a quarterback who looked like he was out cold last week, with multiple weapons hurt, against a Jets team that has its back against the well. Pass.

Cincinnati Bengals (@ NY Giants)

The Bengals are a very good 1-4 team … but they’re still 1-4. And the Giants suddenly don’t look like a walkover.

Dallas Cowboys (vs. Detroit)
Detroit Lions (@ Dallas)

The Lions are better than the Cowboys. Considering the injuries in Dallas, they’re probably a good bit better. But the Cowboys still managed a win against a good Steelers defense last week in the same situation. I’m avoiding this game.

Denver Broncos (vs. LA Chargers)

The Broncos are winners of three in a row. But do you trust Bo Nix yet? I do not.

Los Angeles Chargers (@ Denver)

The Chargers off a bye are tempting, but while I don’t trust Nix, I do trust that Denver defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ New Orleans)

The Saints have fallen apart and now will be starting Spencer Rattler, but all bets are off when these two play.

Washington Commanders (@ Baltimore)

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - AUGUST 17: Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) gives the coach a thumbs up during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, August 17, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire) — MIAMI GARDENS, FL – AUGUST 17: Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) gives the coach a thumbs up during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Miami Dolphins on Saturday, August 17, 2024 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Jayden Daniels is a dynamo, but he’ll have to be against Lamar Jackson, who might pull him aside Sunday to say “Dude, I was you once.”

The Contenders

Maybe this is me being a little pickier than normal, but we’re down to five teams after all that:

Atlanta Falcons (@ Carolina)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Arizona)
Houston Texans (@ New England)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Cleveland)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Las Vegas)

For this week at least, I’m dispensing with the pros-and-cons section, because I imagine anyone reading this can narrow it down to two teams fairly quickly. So, to get to those teams:

The Falcons certainly looked good last week, but they’re also the Falcons, and the Panthers have been friskier since moving to Andy Dalton, so it’s not them.
The Packers are rounding into form. Of course, the Cardinals just beat the 49ers.
The Eagles draw a Cleveland team that has every single bad vibe, but then the vibes have been pretty awful in Philly as well.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Houston Texans (@ New England)

HOUSTON, TX - NOVEMBER 05: Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter during the NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans on November 5, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — HOUSTON, TX – NOVEMBER 05: Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter during the NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans on November 5, 2023 at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

The Steelers drawing Aidan O’Connell (without Davante Adams!) certainly aren’t a bad pick. I wager when the final list of selections drops Sunday, these two will carry close to 80% of the choices. But the Patriots are throwing their top-flight rookie to the wolves Sunday behind the worse offensive line in the league with awful weaponry and no real game plan. The Texans might eat Drake Maye.