2024 Early Air Yards Leaders

Yesterday, Alex Blickle dove into the decline of offense in the NFL, trying to unpick why passing numbers have fallen so far through three weeks. The league is averaging 201.2 passing yards per game through Week 3, which would be the lowest since 2003. Some of that is due to fewer passes being attempted, both because of an increase in sacks and an increased focus on the running game, leading to more running clocks and fewer plays per game than in previous years. But, as Alex points out, the average depth of target has also fallen dramatically.

In 2024, teams have an aDOT of 7.0; a comically low figure. We were at 7.7 in both 2022 and 2023, but only 10 quarterbacks would be above that average so far. That’s not just a small-season sample size issue, either. Through three weeks in 2023, 16 quarterbacks were holding strong above a 7.7 aDOT. Through a combination of factors – including increased two-high coverage, a higher pressure rate, and more successful blitzes – offenses have turned to dinking and dunking their way down the field. It’s not as ineffective as some of the doomsayers would have it, as lack of pace explains a lot of the scoring decline. Teams are averaging 1.96 points per drive, fourth most in the 21st century. They’re just averaging the fewest drives in the 21st century because they have the fewest plays in the 21st century, because of the issues with the running clock. But it’s undeniable that, through three weeks, the long ball simply has not been as big of a factor as we’re used to seeing.

That makes your deep threat receiver an elegant weapon from a more civilized age. They’re not extinct yet, and we’re hoping to see teams stretch the field a little more as the season goes along, but for now, the top of the deep threat leaderboards is a bit sparse and surprising. It also makes finding those players who are getting those deep targets even more valuable, both for general football analysis and for your fantasy team.

Our charting numbers, available via StatsHub, give us a couple different ways to break down deep threat receivers. With only three weeks of games in the books, these numbers are going to still be volatile, but it’s still a good time to take a snapshot of the early season leaders and explain what the different metrics are actually measuring.

Average Depth of Target

We’ll start simple enough. A receiver’s average depth of target measures how far downfield they were when quarterbacks threw them the ball. This is a stat that is generally dominated by players who are just deep threats and little else – players who barely squeak past the minimum target threshold to be qualified for the leaderboards. Last year’s leader was Justin Watson, with an aDOT of 17.5.

So, you may have heard of a guy named Anthony Richardson, who seems to be single-handedly trying to bring back 1970s gunslingery goodness to the NFL. He’s sitting at a 12.6 aDOT through three weeks, which would shatter the record for as far back as we have data. That belongs to mind 2018 Josh Allen, who we have with an aDOT of 11.4. Rookie Allen was also very much a “chuck the ball downfield and hope” sort of player, and Richardson has that first step down to a tee. Allen then took several massive steps forward in terms of accuracy and decision-making, and hopefully Richardson will make similar strides in the not-too-distant future. Until he does, though, Colts receivers are going to be very high on this list, with Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell being the 2024 equivalent of Robert Foster and Kelvin Benjamin.

We can also measure this in terms of total air yards, just adding everything together rather than averaging it per target. This, like any counting stat, is highly correlated with number of targets in general, as a couple short targets makes up for one long bomb. Your leader last season was DeAndre Hopkins, with 1,927.

This is where I point out that these numbers are from before Thursday’s Cowboys-Giants game. I’m writing this Thursday afternoon so I don’t know how that game turned out. I would imagine, however, that Daniel Jones’ passing decision tree will look much like it did the first few weeks of the season:

• Look for Malik Nabers.
• Look again for Malik Nabers.
• Check to make sure you haven’t actively been sacked.
• Check one more time for Malik Nabers.
• Throw the ball away.

Nabers had 32.7% of New York’s targets entering Week 4, so it’s no surprise he’s on top of this list despite a relatively middling aDOT. There was a viral stat going around earlier this week, noting that the only three players with 300+ air yards in Weeks 2-3 were the rookie trio of Nabers, Marvin Harrison and Rome Odunze. This is a true stat, but Nabers is in a different sort of stratosphere from the other two. Nabers is eating volume, while Harrison and Odunze are the ones getting sent downfield more often.

Calvin Ridley’s early usage as a deep threat is unusual, at least to this extent. Ridley had an aDOT of 13.2 last season in Jacksonville, and 9.9 in 2021 in Atlanta. You might be able to chalk that last number up to Arthur Smith’s, erm, innovative offensive designs, but this unusual usage for Ridley. Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising, as he’s slid into Hopkins’ splash play role from a year ago. So far, this has not been particularly effective, as he’s running a lot of deep routes while Will Levis is being slammed into the turf, so we’ll see how far he drops as the year goes along.

Catchable Air Yards

These are just air yards in general, though. It’s one thing to have the ball thrown towards you a million yards down the field, it’s another to have that throw be catchable, so you can turn your deep targets into big plays. That was the problem last year for Hopkins and the Titans, as fewer than 60% of Hopkins’ air yards were charted as catchable. That stat about Nabers, Harrison and Odunze having over 300 air yards the last three games? Those were all air yards, including a few plays where they had no chance of doing anything with it. We can, then, rank players solely by their catchable air yards, so we can look at who is getting the best opportunities to make plays downfield. Last year, your leader was Tyreek Hill with 1,319.

This is the stat you want to track to blend deep threats with quarterbacks who can actually activate them. If you’re looking for a deep fantasy pickup or trying to see who can shred your team’s terrible free safety, this is your point of call. That being said, I would point to Jauan Jennings’ spot on the top of this list as a brief situational moment, caused by injuries both to the 49ers’ skill position players and the Rams’ defense. He’s good, but he’s not that good. Small sample size!

It’s interesting to see which players drop significantly on this list – the “Prayer Yard” leaders. That’s Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Rome Odunze, Jamison Williams and Malik Nabers, who all have at least 199 uncatchable air yards. You could also sort that by percentage, where Keenan Allen and DeAndre Carter are first and second at 19.0% and 20.1%, respectively – been a rough start for Caleb Williams so far – followed by Anthony Richardson’s own Adonai Mitchell at 20.2%.

But not, I should note, by Alec Pierce, as we wrap back around to our aDOT leader. Richardson has been inaccurate looking for Mitchell or for Michael Pittman (catchable air yard percentage: 38.0%), but he’s been decently locked into Pierce so far. A unique sign of chemistry with Richardson? Defenders blanketing the other receivers in Indianapolis? A small sample size fluke? It’s certainly something worth watching going forwards.

Weighted Opportunity Rating

We also have a more advanced stat we can use to group everything together – WOPR, or Weighted Opportunity Rating. That’s a way of adjusting a receivers’ volume, factoring in both their share of targets and their share of air yards. It’s a good way of measuring just who is getting the work on a given offense and factoring out things like game situation or quarterback quality. Last year, Davante Adams led the league with a 0.75 WOPR, as the Raiders very rarely had anything better to do than chuck the ball in Adams’ general direction.

It’s always interesting to see someone with a low aDOT make this list. Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice’s sheer volume means they lead their teams in air yards despite mostly catching a million short passes. For teams that don’t go deep that much, you’re going to find those sorts of target hogs high on their WOPR leaderboard. However, it’s also a sign of just how much shorter passing has been this year than last. The lowest aDOT for someone in the top 10 of WOPR last season belonged to Puka Nacua at 9.1 (0.61). Looking for someone as low as Godwin’s 6.7 aDOT last season would bring you to Deebo Samuel, who ranked 42nd at 0.36. With the deep ball being diminished so much this year, the short reception leaders are climbing higher and higher on the charts.

And then there’s Nabers, standing alone with a huge lead as the top. The Giants offense – short, long, and everything in between – runs through Nabers at the moment. Pity about his quarterback situation, though.