NFL Splits Tool, Week 4: Roadblock — Tua

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Tua Down

The Dolphins were fortunate to pull off a come-from-behind win in Week 1, but they haven’t had the same luck since, staring at a 1-2 start and missing Tua Tagovailoa for at least three more games and possibly the rest of the season. Through three weeks, Miami is the only team that hasn’t played a single snap with a lead, winning in Week 1 on a walkoff field goal and losing by 21 points in each of their last two games. They’re currently dead last in scoring, averaging 11 points per game, ranked 29th in DVOA on offense (-25.3%). Until Tagovailoa it’s hard to trust any of the Dolphins for fantasy, but the potential switch from Skylar Thompson to one-time Pro Bowl quarterback Tyler Huntley, who doesn’t really warrant the designation, at least brings a glimmer of hope.

Tyreek Hill, WR

Tyreek Hill was unguardable in the season opener, running circles around the Jaguars secondary and getting open at will. He caught seven passes on 12 targets, racking up 130 yards and a touchdown. In Week 2, Hill was shut down by the Bills defense, even with Tua Tagovailoa playing most of the game, and continued to struggle with Skylar Thompson under center, catching no more than three balls in back-to-back games. Since joining Miami, Hill has played eight games with Thompson logging at least 20 snaps, averaging 5.5 receptions for 65 yards and zero touchdowns, despite seeing 8.6 targets per game.

Jaylen Waddle, WR

Jaylen Waddle wasn’t quite as dominant as Tyreek Hill in Week 1, but he had a strong performance of his own, catching all five of his targets for 109 yards against Jacksonville. In Week 2, he was held in check for 41 yards against Buffalo and completely shut down in Thompson’s first start, totaling just 26 yards on five targets. In eight games with Thompson logging 20-plus snaps, Waddle has been unstartable for fantasy, averaging 7.9 half-PPR and 9.9 full-PPR points per game, taking a significant hit in usage and production across the board.