WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Where Week 2 saw myriad skill player injuries, from A.J. Brown to Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, and Isiah Pacheco, it’s the quarterback injuries that have spurred the fantasy uncertainty in Week 4. Justin Herbert is fighting through an apparent high-ankle sprain. The Dolphins may be on their third quarterback. And it isn’t clear if Jordan Love can make his return Sunday.
Those potential quarterback changes could have major impacts on receivers like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Romeo Doubs and Quentin Johnston. But my Week 4 start and sit column can help with its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete values that you can use to set your lineups no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on to see where those players and many more land in Week 4.
The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.
You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 4
Quarterbacks
3. Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. WAS: 34.3-237-1.48-0.62 and 4.7-43-0.17 = 19.5
4. Jayden Daniels, WAS at ARZ: 27.2-214-0.95-0.49 and 9.6-43-0.61 = 19.4
5. Jalen Hurts, PHI at TB: 32.0-236-1.18-0.83 and 8.9-38-0.53 = 19.4
6. Patrick Mahomes, KC at LAC: 36.3-262-1.74-0.87 and 3.9-19-0.09 = 18.2
7. Joe Burrow, CIN at CAR: 37.1-257-1.78-0.52 and 2.6-8-0.16 = 18.1
8. Dak Prescott, DAL at NYG: 36.6-266-1.66-0.73 and 2.4-11-0.12 = 17.7
9. Brock Purdy, SF vs. NE: 29.6-260-1.45-0.56 and 3.1-14-0.09 = 17.0
10. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. PIT
28.8-214-1.09-1.18 and 5.8-37-0.39 = 16.7
Richardson was a fantasy regression candidate this preseason. And through three weeks, that regression has manifested as a dip in his designed run rate from 18.4% to 14.5% of his dropbacks. Still, the talented sophomore ranks fifth at his position with 117 rushing yards and tied for second with three carries inside the 5-yard line. I’m not sure there exists an interception rate high enough to push him below the QB1 benchmark.
11. Sam Darnold, MIN at GB
30.8-242-1.73-0.77 and 2.7-8-0.07 = 16.3
As Bryan Knowles noted, Sam Darnold has a 21.9% passing DVOA after posting below-average DVOA rates in each of his first four professional seasons. Is Kevin O’Connell a quarterback whisperer? I may be a scarred Panthers fan, but I can trust it enough to at least start Darnold in fantasy this week.
12. Jared Goff, DET vs. SEA
34.6-253-1.74-0.76 and 1.6-2-0.05 = 16.1
Goff hasn’t shown his usual extreme home/road split in the first three weeks. But even including those games, the veteran has still averaged 5.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split at his position. Start him with confidence in Detroit this week.
13. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. JAX
33.2-256-1.36-0.56 and 2.1-7-0.11 = 16.0
Stroud’s underwhelming 215-yard, 1-touchdown, 2-interception stat line in Week 3 hasn’t dampened my enthusiasm for the sophomore passer — especially not since he disappointed against a confounding Brian Flores defense. But for fantasy, Stroud still suffers his lack of rushing contribution. He is almost certainly a better real quarterback than Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson. But rushing yards and touchdowns count more than passing yards and touchdowns.
14. Geno Smith, SEA at DET
34.7-257-1.35-0.76 and 2.5-10-0.06 = 15.5
The Seahawks haven’t needed a ton from their quarterback Smith in their matchups with Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins in the bottom third in offensive DVOA this season. But Smith has been super efficient with a 13.9% passing DVOA rate that ranks top 10 among full-time starters this year. When the schedule pushes him to pass more starting this weekend, Smith should threaten the fantasy QB1 benchmark.
15. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. DEN
33.3-235-1.57-0.63 and 1.8-5-0.05 = 15.2
Rodgers leads all quarterbacks with eight highlight throws through the first three weeks. He may be the oldest player in football, but he still has the arm that made him a Hall of Famer. His lack of rushing contributions is all that keeps him from QB1 value.
16. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. PHI: 32.1-217-1.57-0.67 and 2.5-10-0.09 = 15.2
17. Malik Willis, GB vs. MIN: 25.9-194-0.98-0.57 and 4.3-37-0.14 = 15.1
18. Andy Dalton, CAR vs. CIN: 35.6-233-1.60-0.61 and 1.9-3-0.04 = 15.0
19. Justin Fields, PIT at IND: 25.9-180-1.06-0.60 and 8.1-26-0.36 = 15.0
20. Derek Carr, NO at ATL: 31.9-238-1.56-0.67 and 1.1-3-0.05 = 15.0
21. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at HST: 33.6-230-1.28-0.71 and 2.2-13-0.11 = 14.8
22. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DAL: 33.4-205-1.20-0.74 and 4.8-18-0.24 = 14.7
23. Kirk Cousins, ATL vs. NO: 32.2-236-1.55-0.74 and 1.5-2-0.07 = 14.7
24. Bo Nix, DEN at NYJ: 35.1-204-0.91-1.05 and 5.5-32-0.26 = 14.5
Running Backs
14. Najee Harris, PIT at IND: 19.3-76-0.48 and 3.3-2.5-15-0.07 = 13.7
15. Tony Pollard, TEN at MIA: 15.2-64-0.46 and 4.3-3.4-22-0.11 = 13.6
16. Josh Jacobs, GB vs. MIN: 18.2-82-0.53 and 1.9-1.4-11-0.04 = 13.4
17. Travis Etienne, JAX at HST: 13.6-57-0.48 and 4.4-3.4-24-0.10 = 13.3
18. J.K. Dobbins, LAC vs. KC: 15.5-82-0.40 and 2.7-2.2-12-0.06 = 13.3
19. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at SF: 15.7-67-0.47 and 3.8-2.8-17-0.09 = 13.2
20. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. CIN: 13.7-59-0.32 and 4.4-3.8-26-0.11 = 12.9
21. James Conner, ARZ vs. WAS: 15.7-71-0.49 and 2.5-2.0-14-0.07 = 12.8
22. David Montgomery, DET vs. SEA: 14.2-64-0.65 and 1.8-1.5-11-0.03 = 12.3
23. Zack Moss, CIN at CAR: 12.4-54-0.48 and 3.7-2.8-20-0.09 = 12.2
24. Devin Singletary, NYG vs. DAL: 13.7-60-0.41 and 3.3-2.7-18-0.07 = 12.0
25. Brian Robinson, WAS at ARZ: 13.5-58-0.49 and 2.3-1.8-16-0.07 = 11.6
26. Jerome Ford, CLV at LV
11.9-50-0.26 and 4.0-3.0-20-0.10 = 10.7
Ford faced a fantasy scare when veteran teammate D’Onta Foreman nearly matched him with a 38% versus a 44% snap share in Week 2. But last Sunday, Ford restored the status quo with a 79% versus 16% snap share advantage. I suspect Ford’s snaps will ebb and flow with his Browns’ deficits. Ford handles the bulk of the team’s obvious passing downs. And with the offensive inefficiency the team has shown so far in 2024, Ford will likely be a decent flex more often than not — at least until Nick Chubb returns.
27. Rachaad White, TB vs. PHI
10.3-36-0.26 and 4.2-3.6-29-0.13 = 10.6
White is a risky flex play after his head coach Todd Bowles told reporters Bucky Irving had earned more snaps. But even as White has yielded a near 50/50 carry split with 31 versus 25 carries this season, he has continued to lap his rookie teammate with 13 versus 6 targets. White’s fantasy value was never about efficiency. And as long as he’s tied for fifth in running back targets, you should pinch your nose and start him in fantasy.
28. Rico Dowdle, DAL at NYG
11.3-46-0.28 and 3.0-2.2-16-0.07 = 9.4
Dowdle has hardly excelled this season with 3.8 yards per attempt and a 17.4% avoided tackle rate. But those still beat Ezekiel Elliott’s 3.3 and 5.3% rates. And Dowdle appeared to wrestle RB1 control from his veteran teammate with a 46% versus 19% snap share in Week 3. You may have better options, but Dowdle is a fine flex play in a plus Giants matchup Thursday.
29. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. LA
11.3-44-0.31 and 3.0-2.2-15-0.07 = 9.2
I’m terrified of Swift. He’s somehow managed to average negative yards before contact on 37 carries this season. He looks headed for the same efficiency decline away from the Eagles as his predecessor Miles Sanders in 2023. He yielded 12 touches and a 37% snap share to Roschon Johnson in Week 3, and he could yield more this Sunday. But Swift has still played more than 50% of snaps all three weeks and averaged more than three targets per game. Like Rachaad White, Swift may be a “pinch your nose and play him” flex starter.
30. Cam Akers, HST vs. JAX
13.4-54-0.38 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.04 = 9.2
Even in an unexpected passing script against the Vikings, Akers made good on a Joe Mixon handcuff start with eight touches and a touchdown last Sunday. And he seems poised for another opportunity with Mixon still week-to-week in Week 4. But monitor the news on teammate Dameon Pierce. Texans beat reporter Aaron Wilson expects Pierce to return in Week 4. And while I’m projecting Akers to double his less healthy teammate up with a 51.5% versus a 24.0% carry share this week, the right tweet could change my mind.
31. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. TEN
9.9-46-0.39 and 1.8-1.4-9-0.05 = 8.8
If he plays Monday night, Mostert will face workload risks from the chest injury that cost him the last two weeks, from his teammate De’Von Achane who has survived jumps to 62% and 74% snap shares despite his smaller stature, and from a likely less efficient new quarterback in Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson or Tim Boyle. His preferred red zone role makes Mostert a back-end flex starter. But if you have a closely ranked Sunday option, I would probably start that player and avoid the Monday night headache.
32. Zamir White, LV vs. CLV
13.3-52-0.28 and 1.8-1.4-8-0.03 = 8.6
White’s 38%, 63% and 22% snap shares roller coaster is certainly distressing. But he’s taken a more consistent 13, 9, and 10 carries the first three weeks, and I suspect that discrepancy is a result of his early-down-only role. If the Raiders can build a lead, then White will likely eat. And I think he has a decent chance to do that in Week 4 at home against a Browns team that ranks 31st in offensive DVOA.
33. Javonte Williams, DEN at NYJ
9.2-32-0.26 and 3.5-2.9-18-0.09 = 8.5
Trust me, I would rather start someone else, too. But lost in the various Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie and Bo Nix panics is the reality that Williams has played more than half of Broncos snaps all three weeks and ranks 32nd at his position with 34 touches this season. You might have to start him in Week 4 and hope that he finally finds the end zone or catches three or more passes in a blowout loss to the Jets.
34. Miles Sanders, CAR vs. CIN
9.9-39-0.28 and 2.6-1.9-11-0.04 = 7.8
The Panthers may not be on your shortlist of expected teams to support two running backs in fantasy. But that could be the Andy Dalton effect. With Bryce Young under center, the team managed a meager 38 rushing attempts the first two weeks, tied for the fewest in football. But with Dalton in a better rushing script in Week 3, the Panthers produced 28 running back carries. Sanders would likely clear the flex starter benchmark if that continued if it weren’t for top rookie running back pick Jonathon Brooks’ imminent return from the PUP list.
35. Bucky Irving, TB vs. PHI
8.2-41-0.18 and 2.2-1.8-13-0.06 = 7.7
You can take Todd Bowles’ word that he will give Irving more work and start him in fantasy this week. But despite his trending workloads, Irving has yet to eat into Rachaad White’s fairly dominant standard snap share. And I would rather see the jump before I put Irving in my lineups.
36. Antonio Gibson, NE at SF
8.0-37-0.19 and 2.4-2.0-14-0.07 = 7.7
His teammate Rhamondre Stevenson looked like a bell-cow back with 78% and 72% snap shares in Weeks 1 and 2. But that rate dropped to 46% in a less-competitive Week 3. And Gibson has made a sneaky climb from 22% to 24% and 37% snap share the last two weeks and averaged 10 touches per game in Weeks 2 and 3. In what figures to be a 49ers blowout win in Week 4, you could even start the receiving-forward running back at flex in a full PPR format.
37. Carson Steele, KC at LAC
9.8-38-0.31 and 1.4-1.0-6-0.03 = 7.0
In his first start for an injured Isiah Pacheco, Steele played a flex-worthy 62% of snaps and saw 18 touches. I think there’s a decent chance he will do that again on Sunday and render this sit designation a bad call. But note that the Chiefs elevated their new/old back Kareem Hunt. And my projected 43.5%, 17.0%, and 13.5% carry share splits for Steele, Hunt, and Samaje Perine push the rookie below the flex starter baseline.
38. Tyjae Spears, TEN at MIA: 4.9-21-0.12 and 3.5-2.8-21-0.08 = 6.8
39. Ty Chandler, MIN at GB: 8.5-38-0.20 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.03 = 6.6
40. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. DEN: 6.9-31-0.20 and 2.1-1.6-12-0.06 = 6.6
41. Alexander Mattison, LV vs. CLV: 5.6-21-0.19 and 2.6-1.9-15-0.09 = 6.2
42. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at NYG: 7.8-28-0.22 and 2.0-1.5-10-0.04 = 6.2
43. Samaje Perine, KC at LAC: 3.8-16-0.10 and 3.2-2.6-20-0.07 = 6.0
44. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. LA: 5.4-23-0.16 and 2.3-1.9-13-0.05 = 5.8
45. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN at NYJ: 5.5-23-0.15 and 2.5-2.1-11-0.06 = 5.8
46. D’Onta Foreman, CLV at LV: 8.1-32-0.25 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.7
47. Chase Brown, CIN at CAR: 5.2-25-0.12 and 1.9-1.5-11-0.05 = 5.4
48. Justice Hill, BLT vs. BUF: 2.7-13-0.07 and 3.3-2.6-19-0.07 = 5.3
49. Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT at IND: 5.6-24-0.15 and 1.7-1.2-8-0.04 = 5.0
50. Gus Edwards, LAC vs. KC: 6.5-25-0.25 and 0.7-0.5-4-0.01 = 4.8
51. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. NO: 6.7-29-0.17 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 4.8
52. Dameon Pierce, HST vs. JAX: 6.2-25-0.18 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.02 = 4.6
53. Jamaal Williams, NO at ATL: 5.8-21-0.20 and 1.3-1.0-6-0.03 = 4.5
54. Emanuel Wilson, GB vs. MIN: 6.0-26-0.14 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.02 = 4.5
55. Kareem Hunt, KC at LAC: 4.7-16-0.19 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.0
Wide Receivers
22. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. BUF: 7.8-5.3-59-0.36 = 10.9
23. Courtland Sutton, DEN at NYJ: 8.3-4.7-58-0.38 = 10.5
24. Jauan Jennings, SF vs. NE: 6.2-4.5-62-0.34 = 10.4
25. Khalil Shakir, BUF at BLT: 5.7-4.7-62-0.30 = 10.4
26. Rashid Shaheed, NO at ATL: 6.3-3.8-62-0.30 = 10.1
27. Stefon Diggs, HST vs. JAX: 7.1-5.0-54-0.35 = 10.1
28. George Pickens, PIT at IND: 6.2-3.9-59-0.28 = 9.6
29. Terry McLaurin, WAS at ARZ: 7.0-4.4-56-0.29 = 9.6
30. Tee Higgins, CIN at CAR: 6.6-3.9-55-0.35 = 9.5
31. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at DET: 7.0-5.0-54-0.28 = 9.5
32. Jameson Williams, DET vs. SEA: 6.8-3.7-53-0.28 = 9.4
33. Keenan Allen, CHI vs. LA: 6.8-4.5-52-0.30 = 9.3
34. Tank Dell, HST vs. JAX: 6.0-3.6-48-0.28 = 9.2
35. Jayden Reed, GB vs. MIN: 4.7-3.2-44-0.24 = 9.1
36. Michael Pittman, IND vs. PIT
7.5-5.0-51-0.25 = 9.1
With just 88 yards in the first three games, Pittman may be suffering the fate we feared for him when his Colts drafted a deep-passing and rushing specialist in Anthony Richardson in 2023. But Pittman still has a 26.0% target share that is seventh highest at his position. I would continue to start him and hope for some positive productivity regression.
37. Jerry Jeudy, CLV at LV
6.7-4.1-53-0.28 = 9.1
The Browns may prefer to learn on their rushing offense and defense. But their offensive limitations have ballooned them to 116 pass attempts, the third highest team total. And those extra passes at least benefit their receivers in fantasy. Jeudy misses the top 40 wide receivers with his 15.9% target share. But the extra team passes push him to 37th at the position in my Week 4 rankings.
38. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. CLV
5.7-4.0-46-0.31 = 8.5
Meyers looked like the obvious loser of the Brock Bowers’ draft hit the first two weeks. But the veteran receiver rebounded from his eight combined targets those weeks to nine targets in Week 3, alone. And his 91.0% snap share is 11th highest at his position this season. Likely to trail frequently, the Raiders may really support three pass catchers in fantasy. And I would flex Meyers in Week 4 facing a Browns defense that is looking less scary than it did in 2023.
39. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. DAL
6.8-4.7-45-0.26 = 8.5
Robinson plays a definitive second fiddle with a 21.2% versus a 32.7% target share for his rookie teammate Malik Nabers. But the smaller Robinson has a sneaky top four total of five red zone targets this season and top 12 total of 1.4 expected touchdowns. Bet on that positive touchdown regression with Robinson as a flex starter.
40. Christian Kirk, JAX at HST
6.2-3.9-50-0.25 = 8.4
All three of Kirk and his teammates Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are playing three quarters of snaps and running routes on three quarters of Jaguars pass plays. And all three could make cases to start in fantasy if Trevor Lawrence were his normal self. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. Lawrence hasn’t just been worse than he was in 2023. He’s threatened his Urban Meyer rookie non-productivity with a 52.8% completion percentage, 6.3 yards per attempt, and a -18.1% passing DVOA that is beating just Deshaun Watson, Will Levis and rookies Caleb Williams and Bo Nix among current starters. I would wait for Lawrence to look right before you return his receivers to your fantasy lineups.
41. Tyler Lockett, SEA at DET
6.1-4.2-48-0.25 = 8.4
Soon-to-be 32-year-old Lockett has suffered a steady decline from 2.5 yards per route run in 2021 to 2.0 in 2022, 1.7 in 2023, and 1.5 in three weeks in 2024. It may not show every week, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has passed Lockett as the No. 2 Seahawks receiver. And you should bench the veteran except in your deeper fantasy leagues.
42. Demarcus Robinson, LA at CHI
6.0-3.5-48-0.29 = 8.3
Robinson may be the de facto No. 1 Rams receiver while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out with injuries. But in Week 3, he landed in the same three-to-five target logjam as his teammates Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington and Colby Parkinson. Expect Matthew Stafford to continue to divide his targets relatively evenly, and reserve Robinson for your deeper fantasy leagues.
43. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at HST
5.5-3.5-49-0.26 = 8.3
Thomas may have made himself the early favorite to replace Calvin Ridley’s position-leading 24 end zone targets in 2023 with his nifty touchdown catch in Week 1. But through three weeks, Thomas has trailed his teammates Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk with one versus two and two end zone targets. And the Jaguars aren’t reaching the red zone as often as expected.
44. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. KC
6.4-3.9-46-0.28 = 8.2
After a Week 2 downturn, the rookie McConkey recovered to play a season-high 72% snap share and see six targets in Week 3. If Justin Herbert can play through his ankle injury, then you could consider McConkey a flex option. But if Taylor Henicke makes the start instead, I would leave the rookie on your fantasy benches.
45. Calvin Ridley, TEN at MIA
6.1-3.4-47-0.27 = 8.1
Ridley has lapped his veteran teammate DeAndre Hopkins with an 80.5% versus a 39.4% snap share this season. But they have seen much closer target shares of 14.7% and 9.2%, and Hopkins could further close that latter gap as he continues to recover from his preseason knee sprain. I am projecting Ridley for a 20.0% target share that ties him for a modest 38th at his position in Week 4. You may have better flex options.
46. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. KC
5.6-3.6-44-0.32 = 8.1
Johnston has rebounded from a disappointing rookie year with three touchdowns in his first three weeks in 2024. And he’s even supported that production with a top 10 total of three end zone targets. You can start him if Herbert can play through his ankle injury. But if Henicke makes the start in Week 4, I would bench all of your Chargers receivers.
47. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. TEN: 4.8-3.4-49-0.19 = 7.9
48. Gabe Davis, JAX at HST: 5.7-3.2-48-0.24 = 7.8
49. Tutu Atwell, LA at CHI: 5.2-3.3-46-0.21 = 7.7
50. Greg Dortch, ARZ vs. WAS: 5.9-3.9-42-0.22 = 7.6
51. Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. NO: 5.6-3.4-45-0.22 = 7.5
52. Josh Downs, IND vs. PIT: 5.7-3.8-44-0.20 = 7.5
53. Josh Reynolds, DEN at NYJ: 4.7-3.1-44-0.20 = 7.2
54. Xavier Worthy, KC at LAC: 4.2-2.5-33-0.21 = 7.0
55. Andrei Iosivas, CIN at CAR: 5.5-3.3-33-0.32 = 6.8
56. Brandin Cooks, DAL at NYG: 4.9-3.1-36-0.26 = 6.8
57. Alec Pierce, IND vs. PIT: 4.3-2.5-42-0.19 = 6.6
58. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. MIN: 4.4-2.8-37-0.23 = 6.5
59. Elijah Moore, CLV at LV: 5.6-3.4-35-0.19 = 6.4
60. Jordan Addison, MIN at GB: 4.4-2.9-37-0.21 = 6.4
61. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. WAS: 4.2-2.9-36-0.20 = 6.3
62. DeMario Douglas, NE at SF: 4.8-3.2-36-0.15 = 6.2
63. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL vs. NO: 4.6-2.9-35-0.16 = 6.2
64. Rashod Bateman, BLT vs. BUF: 4.7-2.8-36-0.19 = 6.1
65. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at MIA: 4.4-2.7-35-0.21 = 6.1
66. Mike Williams, NYJ vs. DEN: 3.8-2.6-35-0.20 = 5.9
67. Allen Lazard, NYJ vs. DEN: 4.2-2.5-33-0.21 = 5.8
68. Rome Odunze, CHI vs. LA: 4.5-2.5-33-0.20 = 5.8
69. Tyler Johnson, LA at CHI: 4.4-2.8-32-0.18 = 5.6
70. Tyler Boyd, TEN at MIA: 4.3-2.8-31-0.16 = 5.5
71. Jordan Whittington, LA at CHI: 3.9-2.6-31-0.15 = 5.4
72. Tre Tucker, LV vs. CLV: 3.6-2.4-31-0.16 = 5.4
73. Curtis Samuel, BUF at BLT: 3.3-2.3-24-0.15 = 5.1
74. K.J. Osborn, NE at SF: 3.9-2.4-27-0.17 = 5.0
75. Keon Coleman, BUF at BLT: 3.4-2.2-28-0.17 = 4.9
76. Christian Watson, GB vs. MIN: 3.1-1.9-26-0.19 = 4.8
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Tight Ends
3. Jake Ferguson, DAL at NYG: 6.8-4.6-50-0.37 = 9.5
4. Travis Kelce, KC at LAC: 5.8-4.4-47-0.30 = 8.7
5. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at BLT: 6.0-4.6-46-0.30 = 8.6
6. Brock Bowers, LV vs. CLV: 5.4-4.2-46-0.26 = 8.3
7. Taysom Hill, NO at ATL: 2.4-1.8-16-0.12 = 7.0
8. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. NO: 5.3-3.3-39-0.24 = 7.0
9. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. LA
4.6-3.7-36-0.27 = 7.0
Kmet’s 10-catch, 97-yard outburst in Week 3 would likely be enough to make him a tight end starter with the current state of the position. But the veteran spurs extra confidence with his jump from a 48% snap share in Week 1 to 77% and 81% shares the last two weeks. You don’t need to fear a Gerald Everett time share any longer, and you can start Kmet with confidence this weekend.
10. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. BU
4.4-3.2-37-0.26 = 6.8
Likely has yet to provide an encore to his Week 1 outburst of nine catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown. But even the best fantasy tight ends tend to ebb and flow over a full season. And Likely has apparently at least wrestled away the No. 1 Ravens tight end role from his veteran teammate Mark Andrews. The former has outsnapped the latter 71 to 62 the last two weeks.
11. Hunter Henry, NE at SF
4.8-3.3-35-0.22 = 6.5
Henry fell quiet after his two first-quarter catches last Thursday against the Jets. But even after a modest three catches in Week 3, the veteran ranks second among tight ends with a 20.5% target share this season. Continue to start him in fantasy.
12. Mike Gesicki, CIN at CAR
4.7-3.3-34-0.22 = 6.4
Gesicki may not match his TE1 contemporaries with a modest 45.6% snap share this season. But the veteran journeyman is really a wide receiver with a tight end label, and his lack of a blocking role reduces his overall playing time. Gesicki has still run a healthy 51.4% of his team’s routes. His 16.2% target share is sixth highest at the position, just behind Brock Bowers’ 17.1%. And his 2.7 yards per route run leads the position. You can start him with confidence.
13. Colby Parkinson, LA at CHI
4.3-3.0-31-0.20 = 5.9
Parkinson’s 21 yards in Week 3 did not make it obvious. But he was a beneficiary of Puka Nacua’s and Cooper Kupp’s — and maybe Davis Allen’s — absences, jumping from 88% and 81% snap shares in Weeks 1 and 2 to a 100% share in Week 3. He just misses my TE1 benchmark, but you should at least consider rostering him if you are floundering at the position.
14. Noah Fant, SEA at DET
4.2-3.1-33-0.16 = 5.8
Fant had his best fantasy day of the short season with six catches and 60 yards in Week 3. But he saw his snap share nearly halve from 81% the previous week to 44%, and I don’t believe it was a result of the blowout. Fant caught passes in all four quarters. But he yielded a position high 47% snap share to blocking specialist Pharaoh Brown in the latter’s first game back from a preseason foot injury and saw his rookie tight end teammate AJ Barner catch his first three professional targets. Fant may not have escaped his previous tight end time shares after all, and I would wait to see more before I started him in fantasy.
15. Zach Ertz, WAS at ARZ
4.3-3.2-30-0.19 = 5.7
Keep an eye on top rookie tight end pick Ben Sinnott’s snap share, which doubled its previous season high at 44% in Week 3. But even after that jump, Ertz looks like the definitive Commanders TE1. The veteran has played at least two thirds of the team’s snaps all three weeks. And his 83.5% route participation rate is top 12 at the position. You could start him in a pinch.
16. Mark Andrews, BLT vs. BUF
3.8-2.7-30-0.21 = 5.6
I suspect Andrews’ alarming drop to a 33% Week 3 snap share was a symptom of a run-focused game plan. The Cowboys are weakest on their defensive interior and seemed to show that in Week 2 when Alvin Kamara ran for 115 yards and three touchdowns against them. Still, Andrews hardly encouraged with a modest 69% snap share and just seven targets in the first two weeks. At this point, I recommend you bench him until at least some of his peripheral metrics improve.
17. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at IND: 4.2-3.1-31-0.16 = 5.6
18. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. DEN: 4.0-2.8-30-0.17 = 5.5
19. Cade Otton, TB vs. PHI: 3.9-2.7-25-0.19 = 5.0
20. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. MIN: 3.5-2.6-27-0.16 = 5.0
21. Jordan Akins, CLV at LV: 4.0-2.7-27-0.15 = 5.0
22. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. JAX: 3.8-2.5-26-0.19 = 5.0
23. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. CIN: 3.6-2.6-25-0.18 = 4.9
24. Jonnu Smith, MIA vs. TEN: 3.2-2.3-24-0.13 = 4.4
25. Will Dissly, LAC vs. KC: 2.7-2.2-22-0.12 = 4.0
26. Greg Dulcich, DEN at NYJ: 3.7-2.2-21-0.13 = 4.0
27. Hayden Hurst, LAC vs. KC: 3.1-2.1-21-0.14 = 4.0
28. Brenton Strange, JAX at HST: 3.2-1.9-19-0.14 = 3.7
29. Brock Wright, DET vs. SEA: 2.6-2.0-19-0.13 = 3.7
30. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at MIA: 2.7-2.0-20-0.12 = 3.7
31. Johnny Mundt, MIN at GB: 2.8-1.9-18-0.14 = 3.5
32. Erick All, CIN at CAR: 2.5-1.9-18-0.13 = 3.5
33. Austin Hooper, NE at SF: 2.5-1.7-18-0.09 = 3.1
34. Josh Whyle, TEN at MIA: 2.3-1.6-15-0.11 = 3.0
35. Juwan Johnson, NO at ATL: 2.1-1.4-15-0.12 = 2.9
36. Michael Mayer, LV vs. CLV: 2.1-1.4-14-0.11 = 2.8
37. Dawson Knox, BUF at BLT: 1.9-1.3-13-0.10 = 2.5
38. Eric Saubert, SF vs. NE: 1.9-1.3-13-0.08 = 2.5
39. Theo Johnson, NYG vs. DAL: 2.0-1.2-13-0.09 = 2.5
