Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 2 was an injury tsunami in fantasy football, with star skill players from A.J. Brown to Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel and Isiah Pacheco suffering likely multi-week injuries. Their major replacements such as Demarcus Robinson and Carson Steele likely went in the traditional Week 3 waiver period. But the Week 3 edition of the Waiver Wire Watchlist has its eyes on some less-heralded replacements whose trends could make them fantasy hits.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. It recommended J.K. Dobbins, Isaiah Likely and Andrei Iosivas before their breakout weeks. So why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 3, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 4. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (30%/24%)
Reason: Opponent schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 3-6
Watson has suffered a slow start to his fantasy season. But he’s underwhelmed against Cowboys and Jaguars pass defenses that both ranked top 10 in DVOA in 2023. Watson will likely have an easier time with the Giants, Raiders, Commanders and Eagles as his next four opponents. Those latter two have been the top two boosters of passing fantasy points at an estimated 6.3 and 3.7 extra points per game since the start of last season. And all four rank in the bottom-10 pass defenses in DVOA through the first two weeks this year.
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