Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I had a mixed week last week. With five entries in the Circa Millions, seven in the Westgate Super Contest, and a Super Contest Gold entry, I’m bound to have some entries do well and others bite the dust quickly. I managed to have one Super Contest lineup go 5-0, but all of my other lineups went 3-2 or 2-3, with one going 1-4.
It’s a bit early to use game theory a lot, so I’m still primarily focusing on which sides I just like the best or lines that are stale/give an edge.
Week 2 Circa Millions Picks
Tennessee Titans +4
From a pure football standpoint, I like this one the most. Both the Jets and the Titans looked terrible in Week 1, but I am more willing to chalk up the Titans performance to early season jitters than the Jets. Tennessee actually outgained Chicago by over 100 yards, they just gave up 3 turnovers. The Bears defense and special teams basically won the game for Chicago, whereas the 49ers just straight beat down the Jets.
Once again, I think the Jets are destined for a disappointing season. Just this time it’s at the hands of a 40-year-old quarterback instead of a third-stringer with the proclivity to have intimate relations with the mothers of his friends. In contrast, the Titans may have just had one bad game, and combined with DeAndre Hopkins likely getting more snaps this week, perhaps they just get their act together a little more.
Carolina Panthers +6
There’s simply no team in the NFL that’s more hated and just viewed as hopeless as the Panthers. I actually do think the Chargers are good, but this presents itself as a get right game for the Panthers after last week’s shellacking.
Detroit Lions -7
This Lions team may be all world this year. While the Bucs looked good last week, the Commanders may very well be the worst team in the league. I’m already seeing this line at -7.5, so I’ll definitely take the stale line value on the Lions here.
New England Patriots +3.5
I’m continuing to ride the Patriots since I just don’t think they’re that bad. Their defense is flat-out good. This is also a good line since you generally have to lay way more vigorish to bet on +3.5 than -3.5 at most sportsbooks.
