FTN Fantasy Stat of the Day: Expected Points Added Per Attempt

Our FTN Fantasy tools and stats provide so much detail and insight on players. The release of our FTN StatsHub provides subscribers with the most powerful NFL insights available. When making preseason draft decisions or facing in-season start/sit dilemmas, having access to our robust database is a huge advantage over your competition. Each week will provide a deep dive into one of our core stats here at FTN Fantasy and highlights the strengths or weaknesses of certain players. 

Expected Points Added Per Attempt

Expected points added per attempt is one of my favorite metrics for running backs. In short, EPA per attempt measures the average expected points gained by the team on that player’s respective carries. 

We are able to use StatsHub to identify which running backs tallied the best EPA per attempt last season. Here are my thoughts on each of the 15 players listed above: 

• De’Von Achane: You need to make a decision on Achane before you draft. He is currently going as the overall RB7 on Underdog, consistently selected in Round 2. By selecting Achane, you are bypassing elite players at other positions such as wide receivers. Achane could build on his historic rookie season and earn more volume, but head coach Mike McDaniel continues to make me skeptical. 

• Kyren Williams: Williams was the surprise of last season, taking the Rams starting running back role in Week 1 (two rushing touchdowns) and never looking back. Williams has strong competition from third-round rookie Blake Corum but has the security blanket of head coach Sean McVay. The Rams head coach has displayed a preference to usually give one running back the majority of touches, with Todd Gurley, Cam Akers and Williams all seeing a dominant touch share under McVay. 
• David Montgomery: Finished third-best in EPA per attempt, which was always my concern with drafting teammate Jahmyr Gibbs at the Round 1/Round 2 turn. Monty is a coach favorite, who continues to show efficiency every year. 
• Christian McCaffrey: Finished fourth at 0.13 EPA/attempt and second overall in running back carries, an elite fantasy pairing.
• James Conner: Conner has unfairly earned the “injury-prone” label yet has played 13 or more games in four straight seasons. My FTN colleague Chris Meaney says Conner is the most “disrespected running back in football.” He is right. 
• Isiah Pacheco: Minimal touch competition and elite EPA per attempt are two main reasons why I’m not afraid to reach on Pacheco in fantasy drafts.

• Raheem Mostert: I have never seen a player have less support from the fantasy community after a massive season than Mostert. He is not even going as an overall RB2 in Underdog drafts after a 21-touchdown season. Even if he just gets 10 touchdowns, Mostert is a massive value. 
• Khalil Herbert: Still only 26 years old, Herbert is buried on the Chicago depth chart behind D’Andre Swift and competing with Roschon Johnson. Would greatly benefit from a trade. Are you listening, Dallas? 
• Tyjae Spears: His ADP is RB33, somehow putting him behind new teammate Tony Pollard, who ranked 28th in EPA per attempt last season. 

• Ty Chandler: Was shocked to see Chander inside the top 10 in EPA/attempt. Now behind Aaron Jones, Chandler should remain on the fantasy radar in the event of an injury. 
• Jahmyr Gibbs: An electric rookie season for the versatile rookie, who finished inside the top 11 along with teammate David Montgomery. Kudos to the Detroit offensive line, which our own Dan Fornek ranked first overall entering the 2024 season.
• Zack Moss: Moss is now in Cincinnati, but his EPA/attempt bodes well for a fully healthy Jonathan Taylor this season. 
• Derrick Henry: Volume (first in rushing attempts) and the 13th best EPA/attempt despite residing behind a poor Tennessee offensive line show Henry’s greatness. The only concern for 2024? Baltimore’s projected offensive line looks well-below their normal level. 
• D’Andre Swift: Swift was good last season, but Saquon Barkley will be much better. Philadelphia still has one of the best offensive lines in the league. 
• James Cook: Cook ranked 8th overall among running backs in yards per carry (4.7). If he only received goal-line touches, Cook would easily be a top-10 fantasy running back.