Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Training camps are underway, and NFL preseason games will kick off this coming Thursday with Houston battling Chicago in the annual Hall of Fame game. For DFS players, today feels like a national holiday: DraftKings just released their starting salaries for Week 1 DFS matchups.
These prices provide us with another data point to assess how players are being valued this season and who will be the most expensive players to roster in our opening DFS lineups. These values are only for Week 1, and most will change on a week-to-week basis.
Dallas wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is the most expensive option, bringing a cost of $8,900 against a tough Cleveland defense. Lamb is coming off a breakout season with 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns.
The top running back on the Sunday slate is Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor, who faces division rival Houston at home. Taylor is listed at $7,800 with Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson just one hundred dollars cheaper ($7,700). The most expensive quarterback is Buffalo’s Josh Allen ($8,000). He and the Bills will battle the Arizona Cardinals at home at 1 p.m. ET. The top tight end is Arizona’s Trey McBride in the same game, who will set you back $6,100 to include in your lineup.
Rookies are tough to assess in Week 1 DFS, but Caleb Williams (QB11, $5,900) was selected first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and is the Chicago Bears starter for Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans. He has an elite wide receiver core with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze.
Here are the top-10 most expensive players by position, with my favorite play, biggest avoid, and value picks for the Week 1 Sunday slate.
Week 1 NFL DFS Salaries and Plays
Quarterbacks
| Name | Team | Opponent | Salary |
| Josh Allen | Buffalo | Arizona | $8,000 |
| C.J. Stroud | Houston | at Indianapolis | $7,500 |
| Dak Prescott | Dallas | at Cleveland | $7,100 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Miami | Jacksonville | $7,000 |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati | New England | $6,500 |
| Kyler Murray | Arizona | at Buffalo | $6,400 |
| Anthony Richardson | Indianapolis | Houston | $6,300 |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville | at Miami | $6,200 |
| Kirk Cousins | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | $6,100 |
| Deshaun Watson | Cleveland | Dallas | $6,000 |
The Sunday slate does not have the Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, Eagles, Jets, 49ers, Rams or Lions. Tua Tagovailoa ($7K) and Trevor Lawrence ($6.2K) battle in the projected highest-scoring game (49 points) with Arizona-Buffalo and Houston-Indianapolis (both 48 points) close behind. I will have minimal exposure to Kirk Cousins ($6.1K) as a stationary quarterback against the Steelers defense. For a deep flier, take a look at Bryce Young ($5.2K) as a low-rostered quarterback with stackable weapons in newly acquired Diontae Johnson ($5.3K), rookie Xavier Legette ($4.6K) and Adam Thielen ($5.2K).
Running Backs
| Name | Team | Opponent | Salary |
| Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis | Houston | $7,800 |
| Bijan Robinson | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | $7,700 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | Jacksonville | at Miami | $7,200 |
| James Cook | Buffalo | Arizona | $6,900 |
| De’Von Achane | Miami | Jacksonville | $6,800 |
| Alvin Kamara | New Orleans | Carolina | $6,700 |
| Joe Mixon | Houston | at Indianapolis | $6,600 |
| Aaron Jones | Minnesota | at NY Giants | $6,500 |
| Raheem Mostert | Miami | Jacksonville | $6,400 |
| Rachaad White | Tampa Bay | Washington | $6,300 |
The first observation is the price proximity of both Miami running backs De’Von Achane ($6.8) and Raheem Mostert ($6.4K). DFS players need to make a decision on how best to get exposure to a Dolphins offense that ranked third in points per game (27.9) and second in home points per game (31.9). The two worst run defenses per DVOA last year were Carolina and Arizona by a substantial margin. That puts a spotlight on two sub-$7K running backs in New Orleans Alvin Kamara ($6.7K) and Buffalo’s James Cook ($6.9K). Washington allowed the third-most running back fantasy points per game last year, which encourages exposure to Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White ($6.3K) who has posted consecutive seasons of 50 and 64 receptions. In the same matchup, I’d proceed with caution for Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr. ($5.2K) and Austin Ekeler ($6K) who will see tough sledding against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game in 2023.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Team | Opponent | Salary |
| CeeDee Lamb | Dallas | at Cleveland | $8,900 |
| Tyreek Hill | Miami | Jacksonville | $8,700 |
| Justin Jefferson | Minnesota | at NY Giants | $8,400 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | Cincinnati | New England | $7,800 |
| Davante Adams | Las Vegas | at LA Chargers | $7,600 |
| Mike Evans | Tampa Bay | Washington | $7,300 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | Arizona | at Buffalo | $7,200 |
| Nico Collins | Houston | at Indianapolis | $7,000 |
| Keenan Allen | Chicago | Tennessee | $6,900 |
| Michael Pittman | Indianapolis | Houston | $6,800 |
The worst five teams in DVOA against WR1s were Washington, Tennessee, Arizona, Miami and Houston, and all five are live on the Sunday slate. Mike Evans ($7.3K) and the cheaper Chris Godwin ($5.8K) are great plays, with all three Chicago wideouts (Allen $6.9K, Moore $6.5K, Odunze $4K) worth consideration. My favorite play is Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk ($5.5K) as a great value coming off a disappointing season. Be careful with CeeDee Lamb ($8.9K) on the road against the NFL’s best defense against WR1s last season.
Tight Ends
| Name | Team | Opponent | Salary |
| Trey McBride | Arizona | at Buffalo | $6,100 |
| Dalton Kincaid | Buffalo | Arizona | $5,900 |
| David Njoku | Cleveland | Dallas | $5,600 |
| Evan Engram | Jacksonville | at Miami | $5,500 |
| Jake Ferguson | Dallas | at Cleveland | $5,200 |
| Dalton Schultz | Houston | at Indianapolis | $4,900 |
| Kyle Pitts | Atlanta | Pittsburgh | $4,600 |
| Brock Bowers | Las Vegas | at LA Chargers | $4,500 |
| Pat Freiermuth | Pittsburgh | at Atlanta | $4,400 |
| Taysom Hill | New Orleans | Carolina | $4,300 |
There is a lot of great value at the tight end position for Week 1. Death, taxes and Arizona being poor against opposing tight ends makes Dalton Kincaid ($5.9K) a strong sub-$6K play at home against the Cardinals. New Orleans’ Taysom Hill ($4.3K) should see a ton of work with Juwan Johnson likely out after foot surgery, and he faces a Carolina defense that ranked third-worst in positional DVOA. I’m also intrigued by Las Vegas rookie Brock Bowers, who is rumored to be in goal-line packages per Adam Hill of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. If you want to trust Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts ($4,600) against Pittsburgh, be my guest. That’s a hard pass for me.
