Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have three Saturday games today in the W! To kick off the day, the Liberty and Sparks will play a rematch of their meeting from Thursday. The afternoon game will pin the Dallas Wings, who are depleted by injuries, going into the nation’s capital to square off with the Mystics. Lastly, the nightcap will see Diana Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury go to Minnesota to face MVP candidate Napheesa Collier and the Lynx!
Today, we will be going over our best bet from this three-game slate.
Phoenix Mercury +6 vs. Minnesota Lynx
-110, FanDuel Sportsbook
There is no questioning this Minnesota Lynx team, which is atop the Western Conference with a terrific 12-3 record. In fact, I believe they are already just three wins away from cashing the over on their opening season win total. Napheesa Collier is very much looking like an MVP candidate, and they have gotten the very best out of Kayla McBride to this point. So, why the sudden fade with the Lynx playing at home tonight?
The Mercury are currently breaking every model that exists, as they’ve had a tale of two seasons. After beginning the year 4-6, two wins of which came against the Sparks and Mystics, they are 4-1 since. Not so coincidentally, this current run began when Brittney Griner returned to the lineup on June 7 against this same Minnesota Lynx team. In Griner’s five games since returning, the Mercury have been underdogs in four of five games and they have covered the spread in all five, including outright wins in three of four games as underdogs. The Mercury have posted three of their four best team offensive ratings of the season over their last three games in addition to five of their best seven defensive ratings of the season over their last seven (the two outliers being against the Aces and Liberty).
When these teams met two weeks ago in Griner’s return to action, the Mercury got just 21 minutes out of their star center, in addition to a ceiling performance out of Kahleah Copper (34 points on 13-for-23 from the field) and a floor performance out of Taurasi (12 points on 4-for-19 from the field). Now, the two combined for 46 points, which is what one would expect to see any given night. For my cap, however, take the run out from that matchup and now factor in Griner seeing 10-14 more minutes, while being far more game ready than she was that night. With Phoenix riding a five-game streak ATS since Griner’s return, I’ll back the Mercury once again getting six points on the road in a matchup that currently seems pretty dead even if the two met on a neutral floor.
Best Bet
Mercury +6
