NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
There are 12 games on the MLB slate Monday and plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and props.
The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and our Pick Tracker for all my picks and FTN’s picks.
With our FTN Bets package, you’ll get picks from everyone at FTN, plus tools, projections and access to Discord.
Make sure you get in on the Early Bird Special! It’s never too early to start prepping for your fantasy football drafts.
The Best MLB Props Today
Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 K’s
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)
As discussed Monday on FTN Fantasy on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio, Tanner Bibee checks in with a 16.47% edge in our K-Prop Tool. It’s a good thing because I would have had to go against the model because Bibee has been fantastic over his last few starts as pointed out by our guy MLB Dream.
The Orioles check in with the sixth best team average against right-handed pitchers. Their offense is good, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts and they have the 14th-highest SwStr% in baseball.
Bibee has 99 strikeouts in 81.1 innings and has racked up 23 over his last two starts. The Guardians’ pitcher has at least six strikeouts in six straight starts, including performances against Washington and Kansas City who have two of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball. Bibee is working with a career-high 13.2 SwStr% and he’s been much better on the road than at home.
In his 38 road innings this season, Bibee has a 2.84 ERA and opponents are only hitting .218 against him. In 43.1 innings at home, the 25-year-old has a 4.36 ERA with an opponents batting average of .240. I believe in Bibee’s skillset, his form, and I think he can get us six strikeouts against the Orioles.
Bonus
Aaron Nola O 5.5 K’s
(-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
One more for you, and it’s a pitcher who hasn’t been as dominant as we’re used to seeing. Aaron Nola’s 8.04 K/9 and 22% strikeout rate are his lowest totals since his rookie season in 2015. Having said that, Nola still has a solid 3.54 ERA and 3.58 xFIP, which are numbers that were better than last year’s totals. He’s only topped five strikeouts in two of his last six starts, but he’s still completed six innings in six of his last seven outings.
That’s important, because I love his matchup and think he can go 6-plus innings here. If he does, he should punch-out six batters. The Detroit Tigers’ 23.7% K-Rate is the eighth highest in the game, and it’s even higher against RHP (24.3%). The Tigers also rank in the bottom 10 in average and wOBA vs. righties. This is a matchup where Nola could pitch into the seventh inning, so for that reason, I’m in on the over 5.5 strikeouts.
