Week 14 DVOA NFL Picks
Aaron Schatz
The fantasy football playoffs have arrived, and Week 15 is no time for statistical shenanigans. Every decision is a crucial crossroads, and my “10 Things You Need to Know” is your playoff primer for navigating this high seas headed for the ‘ship. We’ll uncover waiver wire wonders with championship-caliber clout, warn you about volatile veterans, rookie roadblocks, and expose those misleading stat lines that could derail your title hopes. Let’s dive in and dominate.
1. Operating Under Rico Law
When given volume, Rico Dowdle has produced for the Dallas Cowboys. Since Week 12, Dowdle has averaged over 22 touches per game and had the fourth-most rushing attempts. According to FTN StatsHub, Dowdle is fourth in per carry (5.6), second in rushing yards (329), ranks top five in yards after contact and yards before contact and is tied for the fifth-most avoided tackles (12) among backs with at least 30 carries. Dowdle opens the fantasy football playoffs against the Panthers, the No. 1 DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against matchup for running backs. He’s a must-start for the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
2. Charbs-olutely Fantastic!
All it took was one game for Zach Charbonnet to nearly match Kenneth Walker III‘s total production since Seattle’s Week 10 bye.
Per FTN StatsHub, Charbonnet had 10 fewer carries over that period but outrushed Walker 187-144 and nearly doubled his yards per carry, 5.2 to 3.1. Charbonnet averages more yards after contact, more yards before contact and double Walker’s explosive run rate. Context is key here. Charbonnet’s numbers are certainly skewed from the dominant performance. But Walker’s inefficiency is not. As long as Walker is out, Charbonnet is a must-start. But even when Walker returns, Charbs may have muddied the waters into a full-blown committee — one with Charbonnet as the lead.
3. Allen’s Thunder Stolen: Davis Brings the Lightning
The hopes of Braelon Allen getting the Jets backfield to himself with Breece Hall sidelined were demolished in Week 14 by fellow rookie Isaiah Davis. Maybe it shouldn’t have been such a surprise.
Davis has been the more efficient back; he has the higher yards per carry, yards before and after contact, and more than double the explosive run rate of Allen. Allen Hall is unlikely to play in Week 15, and despite the Jets stating otherwise, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him shut down for the season. Two of the Jets’ playoff matchups are against Jacksonville and Buffalo, who rank as the second and third DVOA-APA matchup for running backs. Allen won’t be the league winner many had hoped for. However, as long as Hall is out, Allen and Davis are viable flex options.
4. Thielen Hot, Hot, Hot
Since returning from injury, Adam Thielen has been a PPR monster. He’s tied for the ninth-most targets (25) and receptions (20) over that stretch, with the seventh-most receiving yards (258) and one touchdown, which really should be two (see below).
Among the 42 receivers with over 15 targets since Week 12, Thielen ranks top-10 in both end zone targets (3) and yards per route run (2.8). Carolina has a great playoff schedule for wide receivers, with Dallas and Tampa Bay ranking as the 10th– and 11th-best DVOA-APA matchup for wide receivers. Thielen is locked and loaded as a WR2 and is a must-start for the fantasy playoffs.
5. Redemption in the Cards?
It’s been a volatile season for Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., but they can redeem themselves over the next three weeks. The Cardinals face the Panthers, Rams and Patriots over the final three weeks of the fantasy season. According to DVOA-APA, those rank as the 10th-, fifth- and 11th-best matchups for quarterbacks. Carolina and Los Angeles are relatively neutral matchups for receivers, but both rank inside the top 10 for WR1s. New England is the eighth-best matchup for receivers and 6th best for WR1s. All will be forgiven if they take full advantage of the matchups on tap for the fantasy playoffs.
6. Don’t Be Shocked: Bench Baker This Week
Baker Mayfield has been an aberration this season and a notch in the belt for late-round quarterback enthusiasts. But he should be on the bench for the first round of the playoffs. Tampa takes on the Chargers, who rank as the mildly concerning 12th-toughest matchup for quarterbacks according to DVOA-APA. But dig a little deeper, and you’ll find the Chargers have allowed just one quarterback to throw for over 300 yards this season and only two over 250. They give up the second-fewest yards per attempt (6.), are top five in sacks and interceptions, and allowed multiple passing touchdowns in a mere four games this season. You may not have a choice but to start Mayfield in superflex, but look elsewhere this week in 1QB leagues.
7. Forget the Bad News, These Bears Have Odunze
Rome Odunze has yet to put all the pieces together, but they’re within arms reach. While Odunze ranks third on the team in targets over the past three weeks, his average depth of target doubles DJ Moore and is about five more yards than Keenan Allen.
Bears QB Caleb Williams is tied with fellow rookie Bo Nix for the most deep throw attempts this season (62), with Williams throwing the most since Week 12 (17). Chicago faces Minnesota and Detroit over the next two weeks, the best and second-best DVOA-APA matchups for wide receivers. The Vikings faced the fourth-most deep pass attempts and allowed the fourth-most deep completions. The Lions have faced the seventh-most attempts of 20-plus yards and given up the 12th-most completions. If Caleb and Rome can connect on the ample opportunities for big plays ahead, Odunze could be the next late-season rookie breakout to become a fantasy football legend.
8. Watson’s Outlook? Doubs-tful at Best
Romeo Doubs is in the final stages of concussion protocol and is expected to return in Week 15. If Doubs does return, Christian Watson‘s already inconsistent value becomes even more volatile. Using the FTN Splits Tool, I compared the two games Doubs was out with the nine they played together in 2024.
Watson’s targets dropped by nearly two, his receiving yards by almost 50, and he is on the field for 12 fewer snaps — his fantasy points per game drop by over four in full PPR leagues. If Doubs plays against Seattle, Watson won’t be anywhere near my starting lineup.
9. Don’t Give Up on Brian Thomas Jr. Just Yet
Last Week, I wrote about downgrading Brian Thomas Jr. for the fantasy playoffs. While I stand by that sentiment, it may not be as bad as anticipated.
In games where Mac Jones has at least 15 passing attempts, BTJ has actually seen an average of two more targets per game. The rest of his stats have stayed roughly the same, but that’s not a bad thing. If Jones continues to pepper Thomas with targets, the increase in volume helps offset some of the dropoff from Trevor Lawrence. Thomas doesn’t have the upside he had with TLaw under center, but he’s still a solid option.
10. Amon-Rising: The Sun God Returns
Since his WR1 performance in Week 11, Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t surpassed 75 yards or caught a touchdown. He’s been solid but not the spectacular Sun God we’re all used to seeing. But have no fear — Detroit’s next three opponents are exactly what he needs to return to form. Buffalo, Chicago and San Francisco have all been susceptible to the slot. Yards per target? They allow the fourth, fifth and ninth most. Yards per route run? Again, fourth, fifth and ninth most. Since Week 11, Chicago has allowed the second-most touchdowns to slot receivers (5), and Buffalo is tied for the fourth most (3). ARSB should get hot just in time to carry you to a fantasy championship.
