10 Things to Know: Fantasy Football Week 14

The fantasy football playoffs are just about upon us, and Week 14 presents a crucial turning point. Waiver wire gems, playoff schedule landmines, and misleading stat lines can make or break your championship run. My “10 Things You Need to Know” is your guide to navigating these challenges and securing your playoff destiny. Let’s dive into the key insights that will give you the edge when it matters most! 

1. Smith to Soar in Fantasy Playoffs?

Dallas Goedert is expected to be out Week 14 and potentially longer, which bodes well for DeVonta Smith as we head into the fantasy playoffs. Goedert missed Weeks 7-10, including two of Smith’s most productive games this season. Week 7’s shellacking of the Giants saw Jalen Hurts attempt just 14 passes. But in Weeks 8-9, Smith was top five in yards per target (13.2), top 10 in yards per reception (17.2) and third in yards per route run (3.7), according to FTN StatsHub. Smith hasn’t surpassed double-digit PPR points since Week 9, but he’s a must-start against the Panthers. If Goedert winds up on IR, Smith could smash in the fantasy playoffs. 

2. Young and Restless … and Benchworthy

Bryce Young‘s midseason redemption has been heartwarming, but is it real? According to FTN StatsHub, Since Week 8 (Young’s return as starter), he ranks in the bottom 10 in completion percentage (60.4), yards (1,082), and yards per attempt (6.4), minimum 100 attempts. Over that stretch, Young has the sixth-worst passer rating and eighth-worst DVOA. He’s thrown six touchdowns in those five games, half coming in the third or fourth quarter while losing. Young’s play has improved, but the bar to hurdle was laying on the ground. Keep him away from your lineup. 

3. Can Guerendo Claim his Throne?

Isaac Guerendo is the prince who was promised to lead us all to fantasy championships, right? Not so fast, my friend. Much is being said about Guerendo’s 5.86 yards per carry, but with just 42 attempts on the season, that could be easily skewed by a few big runs. That’s precisely the case. Guerendo saw 10 or more carries twice this season, Week 6 against Seattle and Week 8 against Dallas (Jordan Mason left both games due to injury). In the 24 combined carries over those two games, Guerendo had more carries of three yards or fewer (10) than carries of five or more (8). Don’t hear what I’m not saying — he should be in most lineups. The volume he’ll see puts him at RB2 status. He’s explosive, as evident by his 76-yard carry versus Seattle. But temper expectations. Guerendo isn’t carrying your team to a championship. 

4. Tua Hot! Don’t Get Burned (by Not Starting Him)

Since returning from injury, Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire. He tops the league in completion percentage over that period (77.3%), partially thanks to seeing the fourth-lowest pressure rate at 21.9%. 

But even when facing pressure, Tua tops the league with a 75.7% completion rate. With a relatively neutral playoff schedule, including Cleveland (eighth-best DVOA-Adjusted Points Against matchup) in the fantasy semifinals, Tua is a must-start rest of the season, regardless of format. 

For Things to Know 5-8, I compared matchups at each position to our DVOA-APA Tool and found one player to upgrade and one player to downgrade based on my findings.

5. Quarterback

Upgrade: Will Levis, Tennesee Titans

While the Colts are a relatively neutral matchup, Levis should light up the scoreboard in the semifinal and championship weeks. He faces Jacksonville and Cincinnati, the best and third-best matchups for quarterbacks. He may(o) wind up leading some superflex teams to championships.

Downgrade: Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Potential Comeback Player of the Year has found money for fantasy managers this season, but you’ll want him on your bench over the final three weeks. Darnold opens the fantasy playoffs with the second-toughest matchup in Chicago and, after a neutral matchup with Seattle, takes on Green Bay, the eighth toughest. 

6. Running Back

Upgrade: Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving has elevated himself to must-start status and could carry you to a championship with a mouthwatering playoff schedule. Irving will go up against the Chargers, Cowboys and Panthers, all inside the top 11 DVOA-APA matchups. Bucky could go down in fantasy football lore if he delivers championship week against the No. 1 matchup for running backs in Carolina. 

Downgrade: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

D’Andre Swift has fallen off as of late, and his playoff schedule doesn’t offer much hope. Opening the playoffs against Minnesota and Detroit, two of the three most difficult matchups for backs, may push him to benches. 

7. Wide Receiver

Upgrade: Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

Calvin Ridley has cooled off but should heat right back up, along with his quarterback’s juicy schedule. Ridley faces two top-10 matchups for wide receivers in the playoffs: Cincy in Week 15 and Jacksonville in Week 17. 

Downgrade: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. has had a great rookie season, but with Mac Jones under center for multiple games and matchups against the Jets (worst), Raiders (ninth worst) and Titans (fourth worst), chances are he’ll end the season with a whimper. 

8. Tight End

Upgrade: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Coming off his best game of the season in Week 13, David Njoku should be in the conversation for TE1 in Weeks 15-17. He faces Kansas City, Cincinnati and Miami. All are top-10 matchups, with the Bengals No. 1. 

Downgrade: Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith has been a revelation for the position, and you’re likely starting him regardless. But temper expectations. He faces Cleveland, San Francisco, and Houston, all bottom-10 matchups for tight ends. 

9. Put Famous Jameis on the Bench

The full Jameis Winston experience Monday night was a sight to behold, and Winston may have given us the quote of the year (again). 

But you’ll want to sit him in Week 14 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the most challenging matchup for quarterbacks, according to DVOA-APA. When Winston faced them in Week 12, he threw for just 219 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Some of that obviously had to do with the snowstorm they played through, but Winston is someone to avoid this week if possible. 

10. Don’t Fear the Cousins Slump: Start Mooney

Kirk Cousins has been abysmal as of late, hindering the production of Darnell Mooney. But don’t be afraid to get Mooney into lineups in Week 14. Not only is he facing the top DVOA-APA matchup for wide receivers, but he’s also seen more volume indoors. 

Using the FTN Splits Tool, I compared Mooney’s production in games indoors versus outdoors. Mooney is seeing nearly three more targets, two more catches, and a couple of extra yards when under a roof in 2024. Mooney’s not a must-start this week, but he’s pretty close.