Who Should Be 1.01 in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts?

Each year at FTN, I’m tasked with identifying who should be the first overall pick in next year’s (in this case, 2025) fantasy football drafts. I’ve picked Christian McCaffrey three years in a row, and while I don’t think you’re clinically insane to draft him high again in 2025 — he’s not the 1.01 anymore.

So who should go 1.01 in 2025 fantasy football drafts? Let’s find out.

The Contenders for the 1.01 Spot in 2025 Fantasy Drafts

Let’s start by looking at last year’s fantasy MVPs:

The first thing you’ll notice is that there are a lot of QBs on this list — including the actual fantasy MVP at No. 1 overall! But we’re not jumping into that discussion today (stay tuned this offseason for that article, though).

The rest of the list is some old familiars: Chase, Saquon, King Henry, ARSB, Gibbs, Bijan, Jefferson. The 1.01 is going to be one of these players. The only other conceivable names not in this list are CeeDee Lamb and maybe Puka Nacua.

Early Underdog ADP data shows that Ja’Marr Chase’ is the favorite to go first next year. His ADP is 1.2. Everyone else is 2.2 or higher.

As far as I see it, there are five legitimate contenders:

• Ja’Marr Chase, WR
• Saquon Barkley, RB
• Justin Jefferson, WR
• Bijan Robinson, RB
• Jahmyr Gibbs, WR

Let’s go through each one.

Ja’Marr Chase’s Case

Chase had just two games all year in which he didn’t help your fantasy team win: Weeks 2 (7.5 points) and 9 (11.3).

Chase has everything you want in a possible first pick: High floor, high ceiling and, if picking a WR, tied to a great quarterback. (The last part is where I see Chase having a clear edge over Justin Jefferson)

Chase exploded for over 40 points three times last year. When people say “league-winning upside,” that is what they are referring to. We’re not sure what will happen to Chase’s teammate Tee Higgins, but either way, Chase is locked into high-volume. He’s the safest 1.01.

And perhaps the biggest feather in his cap against others vying for the 1.01 is that Chase just scores so many TDs. He scored 13 as a rookie and then 17 last year. In his career, he now has 46 touchdowns in 62 games. Jefferson has 40 touchdowns in 77 games.

Saquon Barkley’s Case

He just finished the greatest season by rushing yardage by a running back in NFL history, when you count the playoffs. He runs through holes that might help even you gain a few yards. He ripped off 60-plus yard scores like it was nothing. He’s still in his prime (28 years old) and on an absolutely loaded offense.

What’s not to like? We’re finally seeing Barkley’s star power now that he’s on a good team. Including the playoffs, Barkley went for over 100 yards in 12 of his last 15 games.

The case against him would be that he’s not going to run for 2,000 yards again, and he only caught 33 passes. The two RBs going behind him — Gibbs and Robinson — might catch twice as many balls.

The discussion of Barkley’s ceiling vs. Chase’s is interesting. Chase had more 40-plus games (three vs. two) and of course had the 55-point game, but Barkley had more games with 25-plus points (seven for Barkley, five for Chase).

But not all 25-point games are created equal! A 25-point game from a WR is usually good enough to push your expected fantasy win rate to about 66% that week. When an RB hits that mark, your expected win rate that week jumps to about 72%. I think you could make a good case for Barkley as the 1.01 based on this stat alone.

Justin Jefferson’s Case

Jefferson only had one game in which we didn’t help your fantasy team win: Week 12 (4.7 PPR points). He scored 14-plus PPR points in all but two games. Chase didn’t reach that mark in four games. The biggest knock: Jefferson doesn’t score quite as many TDs as Chase. He also doesn’t have Joe Burrow as his quarterback. (It’s so unfair that Chase and Jefferson were teammates together with Burrow in college.)

Jefferson has now topped 1,4000 receiving yards in four of his first five years, and the one year he didn’t reach the mark, he was on pace for 1,825 yards if not for injury time. You can easily make the case that there’s nothing in the NFL more automatic than Jefferson.

I’ll have him just below Chase in the rankings due to the QB question. Chase has a known great at the position. Jefferson might have a first-year starter. Jefferson will be great either way.

Bijan Robinson’s Case

Robinson took a big step up for the Falcons in year two. He had 304 rushing attempts, 61 receptions and scored 15 total TDs — up from eight as a rookie.

Robinson had a pretty slow start to 2024. He scored under 16.5 PPR points in each of his first five games. But from Week 6 on, Robinson had at least 20 PPR points in all but three games.

Robinson did not, however, top 30 points — despite the huge workload. That’s not to say he can’t — but when you compare that top-line ceiling to Barkley, Chase and Jefferson, Bijan’s is a ring below.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ Case

If David Montgomery were not coming back to Detroit, Gibbs would be the easy 1.01. But Montgomery, who has scored 25 rushing touchdowns in two years with the Lions, will be back. So the question is: Will the Lions keep up with the split we’ve grown accustomed to?

Probably. Which is why Gibbs won’t go 1.01. But we saw what Gibbs was capable of when given the backfield solo: He scored 25 points in three straight games!

But when you have a teammate vulturing 10 TDs per season, it’s hard to earn the 1.01 spot in fantasy league.

The Verdict: Who Should Be the First Overall Pick in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts?

Ja’Marr Chase.

Injuries aside, it’s genuinely really hard to screw up a first-round pick. But even at the top of the pile, players like Chase separate themselves due to TDs and huge (huge) games. There’s a big difference between a 25-point game and a 45-point game.