The Report: Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 13

A lot of factors impact success in fantasy sports, but the No. 1 thing you can do to improve your chances of winning is simple: Don’t be your own worst enemy. This column has led with various nuggets of fantasy wisdom that I’ve gained in my nearly three decades as a player, but almost every piece of fantasy advice I can give comes back to that one central tenet.

There’s a lot of uncertainty in fantasy sports. It’s the nature of the game. We set starting lineups without knowing what the ultimate outcome will be. Joe Mixon was locked in fantasy lineups last week, and that didn’t work out so well. But you know what? Starting Mixon was the right move for nearly every fantasy manager who has him on their rosters. While we may not have been able to see a bad game coming, we do know that Mixon is a bell cow back who has had an excellent season. So, we started him. If we play out last week 100 more times, you’d start him every single time.

How often have you been in a situation where one of your better players is in a bad matchup and one of your marginal players is in a good matchup? It happens all the time. And how often do you bench the good player for the marginal player? I bet you’ve done that a few times. And how often has it worked for you? I’m willing to wager that it’s worked far less often than it’s backfired.

There’s a secret in fantasy sports that the pros know, and the casual players don’t. It’s surprisingly simple: good NFL players are more likely to perform better than marginal players. Sure, they don’t always outperform their fringe counterparts, but they do so far more often than they don’t. A skilled fantasy player knows this and realizes that he or she won’t be right with every play they make. But they put themselves in a position for success by making the best play every time.

Here’s where we become our own worst enemy. If you think you’re going to outsmart fantasy football, you’re kidding yourself. You may get a creative play right once in a blue moon, but more often than not, fantasy football is going to come right back around and bite you.

ach week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.

Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.

Chicago @ Detroit

The Bears may not have won last week, but the team is trending up. And that starts with Caleb Williams, who passed for 340 yards and two touchdowns last week. This game snapped a four-game streak without a passing touchdown and marked his third game with 300-plus passing yards. Impressively, Williams now has more 300-yard passing games as a rookie (3) than all other Bears rookie quarterbacks combined (2). His average time to throw has also improved significantly, dropping to 2.67 seconds over the last two games, compared to 3.12 seconds in his first nine games. It’s no coincidence this improvement happened after the Bears moved on from Shane Waldron at offensive coordinator.

DJ Moore has also flourished under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, catching all 14 of his targets for 168 yards in just two games. He remains the highest ceiling option of the Bears pass catchers, but he isn’t the only useable option. Keenan Allen saw a hefty 15 targets last week and is locked in as a WR3 option. Meanwhile, rookie Rome Odunze has racked up 20 targets over the last two games and is an upside flex.

As for the backfield, D’Andre Swift played through injury last week and was largely ineffective. However, he’s still the clear lead back and remains a flex option. The once concern is in the goal line area of the field. On the season. Swift has seen seven goal line carries. That’s two fewer than Roschon Johnson.

Jared Goff has been nothing short of elite during the Lions’ nine-game win streak. He leads the NFL in completion percentage (77%) and yards per attempt (10.0) over this stretch. Oddly enough, that play hasn’t translated to top shelf fantasy success. Over that span, he’s only finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback four times. With all 32 teams in play this week, it’s tough to trust Goff as a top-12 option.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has also been outstanding, catching 57 of 61 targets during the win streak. He’s also just one receiving touchdown away from becoming only the third player in franchise history to record 10 or more receiving touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, joining Herman Moore and Calvin Johnson.

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have made history as the first duo in NFL history to each record 10-plus rushing touchdowns in consecutive seasons. Gibbs is now the third player in franchise history to score 10-plus rushing touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, joining Hall of Famers Billy Sims and Barry Sanders. Gibbs is locked in as an RB1 option and could see even more work if Montgomery can’t suit up. He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12, but did manage to get limited work in at Tuesday’s practice. That’s a good sign for Montgomery’s status.

NY Giants @ Dallas

Tommy DeVito made his first start of the season last week, completing 21-of-31 passes for 189 yards while adding 32 rushing yards on seven attempts. While DeVito flashed some fantasy upside in 2023, his performance last week wasn’t good. He ended up as QB25 in a week where there were only 26 starting quarterbacks.

Malik Nabers ranks third in the NFL with 103 targets this season entering Week 13. However, his production has slowed significantly, as he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 and hasn’t recorded a 75-plus yard game since Week 4. Nabers hasn’t managed a top-10 fantasy finish since that Week 4 outing, but to his credit, he has been top 30 in each of his last four games.

Like the rest of the Giants’ offense, Tyrone Tracy Jr. struggled to put points on the board last week. The rookie managed just nine carries for 42 yards against the Bucs. DeVito’s inability to move the offense is a concern that certainly puts a damper on Tracy’s outlook for this one. He’s best viewed as a flex option.

Cooper Rush has turned things around after a rough first start of the season, where he threw for just 45 yards against the Eagles. Over his last two games, Rush has averaged 300.5 passing yards with three touchdowns and one interception. Believe it or not, he’s in play as a desperation superflex play.

CeeDee Lamb continues to etch his name into Cowboys history, recording his 12th career game with 10-plus receptions, the most in franchise history. With 118 targets this season, Lamb leads the NFL entering Week 13. Additionally, he set a new NFL record with 44 consecutive games of 4-plus receptions, breaking the previous record of 43 games held by Michael Thomas. The Cowboys could get Brandin Cooks back this week, but Lamb remains the only viable fantasy wide receiver option in Dallas.

Mike McCarthy has finally taken the training wheels off Rico Dowdle. Last week, Dowdle racked up 19 carries for 86 yards. No, that isn’t spectacular, but he’s in play as an RB2 option in this one. The Giants enter the week allowing a league-high 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Miami @ Green Bay

Tua Tagovailoa is hitting his stride, recording 3-plus passing touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time since a three-game streak in Weeks 8-10 in 2022. Over his last two games, Tagovailoa has been highly efficient, completing 75.0% of his passes while averaging 302.5 passing yards per game, with seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and 8.0 yards per attempt. However, in his six coldest career starts, he has struggled, posting six passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. The temperature at game time is expected to be 17 degrees. This is a risky spot to use him in 1QB leagues.

Tyreek Hill enters the week averaging just 51.9 receiving yards per game. That’s the second lowest of his career and the fewest since his rookie year and it’s a sizeable dropoff from the 106.3 receiving yards per game he averaged over the prior two seasons, a figure that ranked second in the NFL during that span. Despite the downturn, Hill is still a top-15 play this week.

Jaylen Waddle delivered his best game of the season last week, setting season-highs with eight receptions and 144 receiving yards. His performance shows why fantasy managers should continue to consider him at least a flex option. As for Jonnu Smith, the tight end has scored three receiving touchdowns over the last two games after having just one touchdown in the previous nine games combined. His recent scoring surge has moved him into the top-10 fantasy tight ends.

De’Von Achane continues to impress, scoring two scrimmage touchdowns last week. That was his second multi-touchdown game of the season. Remarkably, six of Achane’s eight scrimmage touchdowns this season have come in his last five games. Even in a tough matchup, Achane remains a top-12 fantasy running back play.

Jordan Love broke an eight-game streak of throwing an interception in Week 12 against the 49ers. Despite the improvement, Love still has 11 interceptions this season, tying him for the second most in the NFL. Love has been streaky, but he’s still a fringe QB1.

However, he looks like he’ll be without Romeo Doubs in this contest. Doubs is in concussion protocol and is unlikely to clear given the quick turnaround. Dontayvion Wicks will get extra run with Doubs sidelined, but Jayden Reed and Christian Watson remain better fantasy plays.

Josh Jacobs has been a standout in the Packers’ backfield, rushing for 944 yards this season, the third-most in the NFL. He’s on pace for 1,458 rushing yards, which would rank as the third-highest single season total in Packers’ history. Jacobs has already surpassed his 2023 total of 805 rushing yards. Oh, and he scored three times last week. He’s an RB1 option on Thanksgiving.