Tennis DFS plays for Monday's events (3/8)

After a great Australian Open, we now move on to a fairly busy month of tennis, with events all over the globe as we begin preparations for the Miami Open at the end of the month. This week, the ATP has an indoor hardcourt event in Marseille, an outdoor clay event in Buenos Aires, and outdoor hardcourt event in Doha (welcome back Federer), while the WTA has an outdoor hardcourt event in Dubai, which is considered one of their bigger events of the year. 

This article will guide you through each slate, focusing on who to build your core around, along with match predictions for the remainder of the slate, and a power-ranked cheat sheet so you can see how my confidence level is in each tier. With that, let’s dive into the Monday slate.

Garbine Muguruza ($10,200)

So a little bit later on I’ll be discussing why Fiona Ferro is in a rough situation, and while Muguruza is a bit similar, her trip from Doha to Dubai is at least a bit less intense, and Muguruza is the better player in her matchup. If you watched the Doha final, Muguruza was as bad as we’ve seen in over a year, spraying every other ball, unable to make the necessary adjustments in windy conditions. I would expect her to bounce right back in more favorable conditions, in which she’ll also be able to use her power to keep Begu on her back foot in quick conditions. Muguruza is 2-0 on hardcourts, although they haven’t met since 2016. More importantly, Begu is just 5-25 all time on hardcourts against top 20 players (1-18 since 2015). If conditions were slower, Begu might have been able to play the match at her pace, but this will be Muguruza bullying in rallies.

Reilly Opelka ($6,400)

Next, for our value play. Opelka is just a +150 underdog against Roberto Bautista Agut, and while the Spaniard counterpunching will be quite familiar to Opelka after the showing Marton Fucsovics put on in Rotterdam, it could be a blessing for Opelka, as he was just two points away from getting past the Rotterdam finalist. Bautista Agut also doesn’t get quite as many returns in play as Fucsovics, which means Opelka should earn more free points here, and find some less stressful service games. They’ve met twice, splitting their two meetings, which both came in 2019. ELO’s have this as a virtual dead heat, so I’m very interested in taking the big service player (albeit as big chalk), as he’s going to offer a fairly high floor. In their two meetings, Opelka posted 24.3% and 40.3% ace rates, so if the big American is playing as well as he did against Fucsovics, he’s going to find his way past Bautista-Agut here.

Other match predictions (sets in parentheses)

• Mertens over Ferro (2): Ferro is likely dealing with some fatigue off her deep run in Lyon. Rough quick turnaround to draw Elise Mertens.
• Sinner over Barrere (2): Sinner lost in Montpellier, but actually posted a 1.16 Dominance Ratio, so it’s pretty surprising he ended up losing to Bedene. It’s tough to back anyone against Sinner with how he’s looked since the summer. Near 80% win probability per ELO.
• Bublik over Ramanthan (2): Near 78% win probability per ELO’s. Outdoor event, so Bublik’s serve could be a tad bit more inconsistent, however conditions look excellent in Doha. Ramanthan is 6-30 on hardcourts against opponents posting a 10% ace rate or better, so if Bublik is hitting his spots off 1st serves, he really shouldn’t have any issue getting through here.
• Novak over Gaston (3)
• Gasquet over Rola (2): Blaz Rola spends virtually all his time on the Challenger Tour, in which he enters this week having lost four straight main draw matches. He did win his lone qualifying match to enter the main draw this week, against an unranked Tim Puetz, who hadn’t played in two years. Gasquet should be too much for Rola to handle, in conditions that should favor Gasquet in rallies.
• Tiafoe over Jarry (2): Since returning from his PED suspension, Nicolas Jarry is 2-5. He’s 2-2 in 2021 but got wiped off the court by Benoit Paire. If Tiafoe wants it, this is his match to win with what should be fairly easy work.
• Konjuh over Anisimova (3): It pains me, but I have to do it. Anisimova has one match under her belt in 2021, which came in a $25K Challenger against 16-year-old Robin Montgomery. She looked pretty out of form, and ultimately pulled out the following day. This, coming off COVID-19, which saw her withdraw from Abu Dhabi and the Australian Open. Then, last week she withdrew from Doha after turning her ankle walking down a flight of stairs in her hotel. Honestly, she may be questionable to even play here, and if she does, it’s fair to wonder if she’s close to 100%. Konjuh is a former top-20 player, still looking to find some consistency in her game, but this looks like a prime draw for her in Dubai.
• Fritz over Sonego (2): Sonego managed just 29% of return points when these two met on clay at Roland Garros this past September. Conditions that favor Fritz a bit more in Doha should be quite beneficial, and I expect him to win this one in straight sets.
• Nishioka over Ruusuvuori (3): Nishioka checks out with better ELO’s across the board, which include overall, recent, hardcourt, and indoor. He’s also coming in with better form, although neither have looked particularly good this year.
• Rogers over Kanepi (3): A meeting between two outsiders who arrived in Melbourne last month in peak form. Rogers has a little more consistency in her game, who I suspect will have a slight edge in quicker conditions. Kanepi does have the advantage of going through qualifying, so she’ll be familiar with how the court is playing. Looking at UTR’s, Rogers currently owns a 12.87 UTR (12.99 in three-month trends) while Kanepi is at 12.68 (12.83 in three-month trends).
• Mayer over Sousa (3): 4-0 H2H, all on clay, but worth noting none of those meetings have come since 2016.
• Bagnis over Cecchinato (3)
• Galan over Altmaier (3)
• Carballes Baena over Caruso (3)

Cheat sheet

(In order of preference)

Top tier: Garbine Muguruza, Jannik Sinner, Richard Gasquet, Alexander Bublik, Frances Tiafoe, Elise Mertens, Dennis Novak
Mid-tier: Taylor Fritz, Leonardo Mayer
Value tier: Reilly Opelka, Shelby Rogers, Ana Konjuh, Yoshihito Nishioka, Daniel Galan, Facundo Bagnis, Roberto Carballes Baena
Hedges: Emil Ruusuvuori, Daniel Altmaier