Single-Entry Strategies for NFL DFS Week 16

Welcome to what I believe will quickly become my favorite article to write! A single-entry guide to each week in NFL DFS, which mixes evergreen thoughts with slate-specific thoughts about both strategy and individual plays. I’ll be heavily referencing our contest sims and GPP Scores, but I also recommend revisiting (or checking out) our Contest Selection 101 article for a reminder of how we want to attack single entry contests in the first place (hint — aggressively).

If I had to summarize in one sentence how you should approach lineup building in general, but especially for SE contests, it’s this — stop asking if a decision is something you can do and start making sure each decision is something you should do.

Every week, I get questions in discord like “Can I play Anthony Richardson naked?” or “Can I play both Detroit RBs?” (probably won’t get this one much until next season!) etc. etc. The word “can” carries a lot of weight here. Suboptimally built lineups can win, and they do win. But they don’t win as often as optimally built lineups. So that’s our goal — to build lineups with as high a probability of success as we possibly can. This article is about how I plan to do just that in Week 16.

Building Blocks for Week 16

Last week I kicked off the article with stacks, but this week I’m starting with several one-offs. Why? Because that’s the order in which I’m actually going to build my lineup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

Truth be told, I probably won’t care how popular he becomes. The matchup with Chicago is excellent (as shown on Main Slate Matchups), and the Detroit RB position is incredibly valuable. Take a look at what Gibbs and David Montgomery have combined to do this season:

These are video game numbers! At least 30 in all but three weeks. Hell, they’ve combined for over 40 points as often as they’ve gone under 30. Insanity. Point being, even if you don’t buy Dan Campbell’s comments that Gibbs is going to be a workhorse, you should probably still use Gibbs. He’s about 10 times more likely to smash than fail by our Smash% and Fail% definitions, which you can find on the Ownership Projections & GPP Scores page. Only two other RBs (one of whom is about to be discussed further) are more likely to smash than fail.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Flacons

Bijan Robinson’s 23.3-DK-point projection is barely behind Gibbs’ 24.7, and like Gibbs, his receiving role adds to both his floor and ceiling. The Giants have allowed 1,143 explosive rushing yards this season, easily the most in the league. For context, Saquon Barkley is lapping the field in explosive rushing yards with “just” 889. Granted, 259 of the explosive rushing yards against New York have come on QB scrambles, but that still means opposing RBs have produced explosive rushing yards against the Giants at the same rate as the league’s most explosive rusher.

Which means that like Gibbs, Bijan has the unique combination of a huge expected workload, explosive play potential, and a valuable receiving role (not just targets, but designed targets). The only difference is that Bijan isn’t projected for 50%-plus rostership.

This is probably an and situation for me, and even at higher rostership, I will likely prioritize the cheaper Gibbs if forced to choose between the two. But I want both.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle has been a mainstay at the top of the TE GPP Scores, and this week is no different. He thrives against zone and two-high coverages, both of which Miami plays at near league-leading rates. More importantly, he has become the go-to guy in the offense without Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey. He’s being schemed touches in space and being targeted on aggressive, downfield throws. It’s an incredible role for someone who has always been efficient with his targets.

Miami is a TE funnel, too:

Last but not least, the Niners are likely on to their fourth-string RB this week, which means we should see a more pass-happy approach than we typically see from Kyle Shanahan. All systems go for Kittle.

You can probably see where this is going… We now have a desired core of two expensive RBs and an expensive TE. We need savings, and what better way to save money than correlating all of the cheap plays within the same stack?

Single-Entry Stacks for Week 16