2022 Shriners Children's Open Betting Preview

Welcome to the FTN PGA betting preview. I’ll include a little more behind-the-curtains analysis in this week’s preview than most so you all can become familiar with my process.

The Shriners Children’s Open returns once again to TPC Summerlin, and with it comes a strong, unique course fit model. Of course, the course fit model is instrumental in my expected strokes gained projections.

Course Fit Model

First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model, from my course fit article for FTNDaily:

“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”

In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.

Power and finesse will both be on display this week, as the model points to driving distance as well as skill both on and around the green as the key factors:

Diagram

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Thanks to our proprietary strokes gained: driving accuracy metric, we can separate the effects of distance and accuracy off the tee, and this week’s model shows how crucial the ability to do so can be.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im have both won here and they’re first in second in my baseline expected strokes gained. Due to his length off the tee and putting prowess, Cam Davis at 40-1 is the first outright bet I placed this week. I have three others already in the Bet Tracker.

Odds Shopping

We can get some better numbers on certain players through the use of our prop shop. At the moment, some of the largest discrepancies between various books are:

Dean Burmester (66-1 on BetRivers, as low as 50-1 elsewhere)
Thomas Detry (66-1 on BetRivers, as low as 50-1 elsewhere)
Keith Mitchell (66-1 on BetMGM, as low as 50-1 elsewhere)

Consider this — the percentage difference between 50-1 and 66-1 is the same as getting a -110 favorite at +120. In other words, it’s enormous in the long run!

Some others: