NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The President’s Cup is taking place this week in North Carolina, hosted by Quail Hollow – a familiar stop most years on the PGA Tour’s schedule. This week it will host 24 golfers, 12 American and 12 International, as they battle in a team event, similar to the Ryder Cup.
The Americans are 13-1-1 since they inaugural event in 1994, and the markets heavily suggest a 14th victory this week. As it stands at the time of writing, the lowest odds I’ve found posted for an American victory are -650. The International team lost three of their best golfers to LIV Golf (Abraham Ancer, Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann), and while they do have Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama, on paper the depth of the roster disappears quickly.
President’s Cup Rosters
The American depth is strong, and it’s hard to imagine there are many pairings in which the internationals would be favorites whether it’s the foursomes, fourball or head-to-head matchups. That said, there is still talent on the International side, and perhaps with better planning and efficient pairings they can put a scare into the American side. They will need to take advantage of the first three days because it seems a steep mountain to climb coming away with more points in the day four single matches.
It’s hard for me to put a price on the team market and while their may have been a severe overreaction to the International side losing players, the price was still lingering around -300 prior to the defects to LIV. I will not be backing a side prior to the start the of the tournament but if the Internationals can win a few of the opening matches I wouldn’t mind shopping for a lower American price.
There is however a market I would like to take a few chances on, which is the Top Point Scorer for each side. Only eight of 12 golfers will play each segment so it will be important to make a solid guess as to which golfers may play the most for their respective teams.
In 2019, the Internationals leaned heavily on their best golfers playing most of them in at least four matches and Adam Scott, Byeong Hun An, Abraham Ancer, Marc Leishman and Sungjae Im playing five matches. While a much of the American team played four matches only Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele played all five, and I’d anticipate them being paired together once again and perhaps getting the same treatment.
Quail Hollow regularly hosts the Wells Fargo Championship and we know it plays to the strengths of distance. The Americans as the host can setup the course how they see fit and assuming their wise they will groom it to play even more into the distance advantage. On the International side, there is distance and I’m curious to see if they use it with a golfer like Pendrith – a President’s Cup rookie but a wonderful fit on paper for Quail Hollow – he could be worth a look at top point scorer but there is a concern being a rookie he may not see more than three matches. The Internationals are not afraid to put their best team forward but I’m a bit wary about it.
Top Point Scorer – American
Tony Finau
(+900, BetMGM — best available at the time of writing)
I believe Finau is currently playing the fourth-best golf of any of the Americans and has enough team experience to be given five total matches if Davis Love III so chooses. He’s played the course quite a bit, and although I think it should suit, he hasn’t strung it together. He is currently in the middle of the best stretch of golf of his career though and oddly enough it’s been his iron play at Quail Hollow that has held him back and it seems like more of an aberration than expectation. I think he has a strong chance to play a minimum of four matches and he should be the favorite in whatever match he has Sunday as well. The skills he possesses will pair with most anybody else on the American team in alternate shot and he has one of the highest birdie rates on tour which is excellent for foursomes.
Top Point Scorer – International
Hideki Matsuyama
(+650, BetMGM)
I think Matsuyama is the safest choice on the team for multiple reasons. First off, he’s one of the best golfers on the team and has experience in the team events. I have to guess that if the Internationals are playing this like the 2019 President’s Cup that they will roll their top golfers in all five rounds. The caveat here is Matsuyama was dealing with a neck issue on and off during 2022 and that could be reason to rest him once (hopefully not twice). I also believe he will be playing with one of the other better golfers as a teammate and less likely being paired with one of the bottom dwellers on the depth chart. This is just a hunch while trying to guess teams – either way, he’s an elite birdie maker and could potentially be one of the few golfers on the International team to be either even or only a small dog in their Sunday singles match.
Taylor Pendrith
(+1400, BetMGM)
This is a long shot that I mentioned earlier, and the reasoning is mainly his form and course fit. He played extremely well down the stretch of the season, which is what got him noticed and picked in the first place. He has never played the course as a PGA Tour event and is a President’s Cup rookie, but he was picked over others in the standings which I hope means that the Internationals want to use him with the form and fit being top notch. It may not work out but at 14/1 on a team that the market expects to get rolled over, he may not need to steal many points, possibly tying for the lead at 2.5 or winning with 3.
