NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The 2022-23 PGA Tour season kicks off in California, with the Fortinet Championship hosted by the Silverado Resort and Spa. Another familiar course for the Tour, Silverado has played host since 2015 and should be a familiar scene for many teeing it up.
This will also be the first PGA Tour event in which we see many of the new PGA Tour Card earners from the recently wrapped up Korn Ferry Tour season and they will be eager to kick off the season. Past winners have ranged from -14 to as low as -21 (Stewart Cink), and Max Homa won last year’s championship at -19. An angle to potentially look at will be the return to California as we’ve seen certain golfers excel here, similar to those who prefer what the Florida swing has to offer in early spring.
Silverado Resort & Spa Stats (North Course)
- Par 72, 7,166 yards
- Driving Distance | 284 yards
- Driving Accuracy | 51.5%
- Greens in Regulation Fairway | 81.2%
- Greens in Regulation Rough | 62.9%
- Greens | Poa annua
Course Takeaways
- Starting OTT, historically it has not shown to be a huge advantage
- Driving accuracy may be low, but GIR from the rough is fairly high and historical rough penalty, relative to par scoring, is lower – all of this suggests missing fairways isn’t detrimental, so bombers can still grip n’ rip at holes that allow it
- Preference to distance over accuracy, but it isn’t as wide of a margin as we see some weeks on Tour due to the overall shortness of the course
- Tucked pins have put a premium on around-the-green/scrambling play in the past
Fortinet Championship Outright Selections
- Denny McCarthy 50/1 (6 places, 1/5 odds each-way) BetRivers
- Taylor Montgomery 66/1 (6 places, 1/5 odds each-way) BetRivers
- Andrew Putnam (6 places, 1/5 odds each-way) BetRivers
Denny McCarthy 50/1 EW
McCarthy is coming off his best season as a professional golfer, which saw a sizable improvement in his ball-striking. That will hopefully carry over into this new season (this two-week offseason is huge). With the improved ball striking he had the most T20’s in his career, and although he didn’t win, he was putting himself in contention more often, including three T10’s over his final eight events. Silverado is a bit of a generic course with no strong advantages to any particular skill set, but McCarthy should feel fine with his average ball-striking and elite short game to carry him. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of a weaker field in Autumn.
Taylor Montgomery 66/1 EW
After spending three seasons on the Korn Ferry Tour, Montgomery has finally made the jump to the PGA Tour. I rated him as the best golfer on the Korn Ferry Tour last season (like many others) despite not winning a single event. He had six top 5’s and 13 T20’s in 19 events, playing a consistent game and showing he belonged on the PGA Tour. It would be nice to have seen him get over the hump on the KFT (or win an event at any level) however his talent suggests he’s capable. The 66/1 is a generous number but with his potential closing-woes and growing pains it’s nice to have the 6 places as well.
Andrew Putnam 66/1 EW
Putnam plays a similar game to McCarthy although not nearly as good of a putter, but slightly better approach play. He perhaps turned the corner a bit at the end, with a strong finish at the FedEx St. Jude and a T25 at the BMW Championship, missing out on making it to East Lake for the Tour Championship. His short game often carries him, but he finds a ton of fairways (often 10% more than the field) which won’t be as big of an advantage this week but also prevents large mistakes. If his iron play can continue to be at worst, average, his short game is good enough to see him into contention.
