2022 CJ Cup Betting Preview

Betting possibilities are endless in PGA, but my focus is on outrights. The theory here is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently. Additionally, I believe my focus on course fit can lead to large edges in the outright market, where books are under-adjusting odds. Whether your interest is in the outright market, top 10/20 market, matchups, or all of the above, my expected strokes gained projections can be your best friend. You can also heavily reference Kyle’s PGA betting Model and Josh’s projections.

Course Fit Model

There is no course fit model this week, since Congaree Golf Club is a new stop on Tour. As a result, we can simply lean further into the baseline projections. However, this is a Tom Fazio course, which opens up one additional path. Fazio is the course architect for the Stadium Course at PGA National and led the re-design of Quail Hollow. 

PGA National:

Quail Hollow:

This is a small sample, of course. There’s no guarantee that all Fazio courses follow a similar pattern, but there’s no doubt that these two courses share some key characteristics:

• Emphasis off the tee
• De-emphasis on putting
• Emphasis on short game

Players with favorable baseline projections who stands to benefit from Congaree GC following the same pattern is where my focus will be this week.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

This is without a doubt the strongest field of the fall swing, and yet, it’s once again Cameron Young that I want to highlight. As was the case last week, no one stands to benefit more from Congaree fitting the existing Fazio pattern than Young:

He’s 14th in DK’s odds to win, but:

• 6th in my baseline top 10 odds
• 10th in my baseline win odds
• 5th in my baseline ‘expected wins’ projection

In other words, he perfectly fits the mold that we’re looking for.

Odds Shopping

As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest discrepancies I’ve found are:

• Keegan Bradley (60-1 on Caesars, as low as 33-1 elsewhere)
• Luke List (150-1 on BetRiverswith an each-way option, as low as 100-1 elsewhere)
• Davis Riley (66-1 on BetRiverswith an each-way option, as low as 40-1 elsewhere)

I love using examples to reinforce this point. Imagine getting a +330 NFL underdog at one sportsbook at +600 on another. It simply doesn’t happen.