Too-Early Futures for the 2026 Academy Awards

DraftKings’ recent release of Academy Award odds means one thing: It’s time to return to the Red Carpet. This year’s Best Picture race has its share of surprising films at the top and bottom of the initial futures market. 

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Most years, DraftKings waits until September to release its first batch of Best Picture favorites and longshots, so for them to appear this early, there are bound to be values and huge swings over the next eight to nine months. That’s great news for us. 

Last year, Mikey Madison opened as a -150 favorite for Best Actress, but she was a +175 dog to Demi Moore by Oscar night. We profited off the late shift in the market last year, and there will be plenty of opportunities to capitalize on the same shifts again this year. 

For now, let’s look at the Best Picture race and what other award implications should stem from it. If you’re a film fan, the following films can be used as a pseudo-what-to-see this year list.

2026 Best Picture Candidates 

After the Hunt, +600

(Luca Guadagnino, Amazon MGM Studios)
Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, Chloë Sevigny

I’m shocked that After the Hunt currently leads all films in Best Picture odds. Director Luca Guadagnino’s last film, Challengers, was a sharp film with cutting humor and a great soundtrack, but it didn’t get nominated for a single award at last year’s Oscars. 

That one factor that doesn’t bode well for its chances, but it’s also been dubbed a ’90s-style psychological thriller. What’s the last true “thriller” to win Best Picture? I would argue it’s 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs, but you could make a case for No Country for Old Men, and I wouldn’t argue it. Even David Fincher’s auteur-level thrillers like Gone Girl or Panic Room don’t get a second glance for a Best Picture nomination, much less a win. The Academy may recognize Guadagnino’s newest film with a nomination, but I think that’s as far as it goes. 

Does Julia Roberts secure a nomination? Now, that’s something to keep an eye on. 

The Ballad of a Small Player, +700

(Edward Berger, Netflix)
Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton, Alex Jennings

Now, here is a contender. Edward Berger, coming off a presumed runner-up in last season’s Best Picture for Conclave, has serious chops as a director, with hardware to prove it. Conclave had a series of wins, including the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay and multiple BAFTA awards, including Best Film. In 2022, his film All Quiet on the Western Front won four Oscars with a landslide victory for Best International Feature. 

His newest film, The Ballad of a Small Player, stars Colin Farrell and Tilda Swinton and follows a gambler on the run in Macau. Colin Farrell’s interesting career decisions in the past few years (The Banshees of Inisherin, The Batman/Penguin, The North Water) set up nicely for a Best Actor nomination opposite the chameleonic Tilda Swinton. 

The only factor hindering the film is its non-theatrical Netflix streaming release. Although a few Netflix films have come close (Roma, 2018& Marriage Story, 2019), and one that should have won (The Power of the Dog, 2021), the streaming behemoth has never garnered the film industry’s top award. 

It could be the year Netflix gets its long-coveted BP Oscar, but I’ll check back once they give us a release date. 

Hamnet, +700

(Chloé Zhao, Universal, Focus Features)
Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley, Emily Watson

Hamnet is an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s historical fiction novel about the aftermath of William Shakespeare’s son’s death (named Hamnet). The book implies that it inspired the playwright to pen his masterpiece, Hamlet, though his name is never mentioned in the novel (yes, I read it). 

Not only does Hamnet have an accomplished director in Chloé Zhao, who won both Best Picture and Best Director (Nomadland, 2021), but it has the potential to garner at least three acting nominations for Paul Mescal, Jessie Buckley and Emily Watson. 

With a release date in mid-December, Universal and Focus Features think their film can overcome the success of recent earlier premieres winners (Anora & Oppenheimer) that have earned success over the past few seasons. 

I’m very high on this film’s potential as we approach the end of 2025, when its value could balloon to even greater heights. 

Sinners, +900

(Ryan Coogler, Warner Bros.)
Michael B. Jordan, Miles Caton, Saul Williams, Hailee Steinfeld

The Good: I saw this film in theaters and loved it for several reasons, not the least of which was every musical number. The vampire genre goes through different phases of liveliness, from the forefront of society’s cultural symbols to its moribund state today. The casting is superb, and the acting is tuned to the perfect frequency. Ryan Coogler, the film’s writer/director (and former Sacramento State wide receiver), is starting to gather momentum as one of the film industry’s leading young auteurs. Coogler’s growth from his first full-length feature, Fruitvale Station, through the launching of Creed and the Black Panther franchise, is among the last quarter-century’s most impressive. 

The Bad: It is still a vampire movie, and the Academy doesn’t generally show much love to the horror genre. Look no further back than last year, when Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu didn’t even garner a Best Picture nomination. Coogler’s Sinners does have huge studio backing, which could be the difference. Either way, do not invest your money in a Best Picture win. There’s simply no precedent for it. Coogler’s time will come, especially after his critical and theatrical success with Sinners. 

The Possible: Look for Hailee Steinfeld to pick up at least a nomination for Best Supporting Actress. Her character, Mary, is a force in the film that resonates the longest after its end. I would be thrilled and unsurprised if she took home hardware for her performance. 

Double-hardware year for her and her fiancé Josh Allen? We can only be so lucky, but I will hope.

Highest 2 Lowest, +900

(Spike Lee, A24/40 Acres & a Mule)
Denzel Washington, Jeffrey Wright, Ilfenesh Hadera) Remake of Kurosawa’s High and Low

Spike Lee. Denzel. Remake of Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low. Count me in. 

Lee has remained Oscar-relevant throughout his five decades of filmmaking. Outside of Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg, Lee is the only director with films that could have won Best Picture in years that either didn’t break the right way or the Academy “did the wrong thing.” In Best Picture: BlacKkKlansman (2018) lost to Green Book, 25th Hour didn’t get a nomination, Malcolm X (1992), Do the Right Thing (1989), and so on. 

Lee also struggled with a remake of Oldboy, the Korean cult classic, so hopefully, he will bounce back from that experience, but this feels like a long shot for Best Picture. I’m fading. 

Avatar: Fire and Ash, +900

(James Cameron, 20th Century Studios)
Kate Winslet, Zoe Saldaña, Sigourney Weaver, Sam Worthington

The next Oscar to win for the trilogy’s final part, a la The Return of the King (2003), should be Dune: Messiah if it doesn’t fall in the same year as Nolan’s The Odyssey. 

Avatar: Fire and Ash should be recognized across the board and will likely win a slew of technical categories, but I am out on it as a Best Picture winner. 

Frankenstein, +1100

(Guillermo del Toro, Netflix/Bluegrass Films)
Mia Goth, Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi

The Academy’s affinity for Guillermo del Toro, highlighted by his Best Picture win for The Shape of Water, so anything is possible. His victory over better films (Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) is a mistake. Due to that factor and its horror remake, much like Nosferatu, I don’t see Frankenstein walking away with much outside of potential wins in Best Make-Up and Hairstyling or Best Costume Design. 

Something else to watch is when Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Bride of Frankenstein remake, Bride!, premieres. The film stars brother Jake Gyllenhaal and Christian Bale as Frankenstein’s monster. Jessie Buckley (Men, Hamnet) will play The Bride. 

The Life of Chuck, +1400

(Mike Flanagan, Neon)
Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Nick Offerman, Carla Gugino

I wrote about this film nearly a year ago, which DraftKings pegged to be in the 2025 batch of Oscar contenders. Here was my take then, and not much has changed, aside from the odds: 

Love this film at +1400. 

The Smashing Machine, +1800

(Benny Safdie, A24)
Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt, Ryan Bader

Look, I’m a Safdie ride-or-die, and I choose to believe he finally gets a nomination. This film could take the same route as last season’s The Iron Claw (A24) and get zero nominations. 

Another consideration that may work in its favor is the Academy’s egregious declaration that Uncut Gems (2019), Benny and Josh Safdie’s incredible film starring Adam Sandler, didn’t deserve a single nomination. I think that error gets corrected this time. I trust the Safdies. 

Die, My Love, +2500

(Lynne Ramsay, 193)
Jennifer Lawrence, Robert Pattinson, Nick Nolte 

Whether the film has what it takes to win a Best Picture nomination probably doesn’t matter much to Jennifer Lawrence or any of the other top-billed stars when it comes to getting their own acting nominations. Lawrence is a shoo-in for a nomination in her role as Grace, a woman struggling with the turmoil of psychosis. 

The film could also be a nominee for the newest Oscar Category: Best Casting.

Train Dreams, +4000

(Clint Bentley, Netflix, Big Bear)
Joel Edgerton, Clifton Collins Jr., Felicity Jones, Paul Schneider, William H. Macy

Much like Nickel Boys last season, this film has a solid cast and source material (a Pulitzer Prize-winning novel), so it’s a worthy enough long shot in the Best Picture category. However, no wins are guaranteed. Like the former Pulitzer-winner Nickel Boys last season, it could win nothing. I see it getting a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. 

The Phoenician Scheme, +4000

(Wes Anderson, Focus Features)
Benicio Del Toro, Mia Threapleton, Michael Cera

One year will be Wes’ year. I’m not sure it’s this one, but at 40-1, I’m fine with a tiny future sprinkle on Anderson, the eccentric setting master. It will be interesting to see if this type of ensemble cast gets recognized for Best Picture. 

Talas’ Way-Too-Early Best Picture Lean(s)

Hamnet +700 or The Life of Chuck +1400