Post-Nomination Values for the 2025 Academy Awards (January)

With the NFL, NBA, PGA, NHL, MMA and EPL all occupying our attention, one betting area outside of sports is overlooked this time of year. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced its nominations for the 97th Oscars Thursday morning, which brings new values and some surprises. 

In Oscars betting, the early and post-nomination values are two ways to profit, but not the only ways. I will continue monitoring the news, odds shifts, and the current best values. 

I will also write up my final picks and best bets in the week leading up to Oscar night (March 2), where, over the past two years, we’ve returned profits (2023: 3.46 Units; 2024: 3.4 Units), even after the initial values have passed. 

Enough about our past success. Let’s get to FTN’s current best values for the 97th Academy Awards. 

2025 Oscars Best Values

Best Picture

The Brutalist at -125 for Best Picture is not something I thought I would wake up to, but the late surge by Emilia Pérez (13 nominations) and Wicked (10 nominations) brought my favorite a little closer to Earth. The sprawling, 3.5-hour, impossible-to-find-in-theaters epic follows a Hungarian-Jewish architect’s American immigration story. We’ve been on it since October at +225, but recently, there has been a little controversy over how Brady Corbet used AI to smooth-over some of the Hungarian dialogue. I think this is a non-issue because AI also enhanced Karla Sofía Gascón’s musical numbers in Emilia Pérez. Welcome to 2025. Smash The Brutalist (-125) while you can. 

Best Picture: The Brutalist (-125)

Best Actress

Mikey Madison being a plus-money dog in the performance of the year is a great bet. Not to take anything away from Demi Moore’s brave performance in The Substance, a successful body-horror film that earned the veteran the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama (and put Mubi on the map). I thought it was well-acted, but it resides in the grey area between Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Moore is simply not on screen enough to win this award. Madison’s performance as the title character Anora was the early favorite and is still the better performance and film. Easy plus-money bet for me. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison (+130)

Others I’m keeping an eye on and will write up next week:

Best Film Editing: The Brutalist (+120)

Make-Up & Hairstyling: Wicked (+250)

A note on Best Actor: At the time of my November article, Timothée Chalamet was +1000 for Best Actor. He’s now +150. This is what I wrote and still see it as a value:

This is only a sprinkle because I like the value. The Academy loves a music biopic, so I expect Timothée Chalamet to pick up a nomination (he did) for his depiction of folk singer Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. An actor of Chalamet’s talent who sings and acts as one of the most famous American singer-songwriters in music history? At 10-to-1 odds? Yes, please.