Values for the 2025 Academy Awards (November)

In my first article of Oscar season, I gave initial values and discussed Oscar odds volatility. Since that article was published Oct. 25, Anora has gone from a +330 dog to a +150 favorite for Best Picture. At the time, I expected it to close the gap with The Brutalist, but I did not expect it to overtake it as the outright favorite. The move, however, presents an interesting new value on the board.

Thoughts on Anora (+250):

• A Sean Baker masterpiece
• Mikey Madison is a FORCE. Unforgettable character in the zeitgeist. Shoe-in for Best Actress.
• It has a REAL path to overtake The Brutalist (+200) for Best Picture
• Write-up coming later in the week on @FTNBetting
•… pic.twitter.com/hwhrecqog7

— Mike Talas (@ffTalas) November 11, 2024

In Oscars betting, the early values are one way to a profit but not the only way. I will continue monitoring the news, odds shifts and the best values throughout the nomination process. I will also write up my final picks and best bets in the week leading up to Oscar night (March 2), where, over the past two years, we’ve returned profits (2023: 3.46 Units; 2024: 3.4 Units), even after the initial values have passed.

2024 Oscars Value Check-In

Best Picture

Anora (+150)

Anora, the film, is as much of an unstoppable force in this year’s Oscar race as Anora, the title character, is to anybody who attempts to oppose her. That bodes well for the film’s chances to take home Best Picture.

In October, I didn’t love that the film won the Palme d’Or at Cannes. In the history of the Academy Awards, there have only been three films to win both the Palme d’Or and the Oscar for Best Picture: Parasite (2019), The Silent World (1956), and Marty (1955). After seeing the film this weekend, I can attest that it does not have the typical Palme d’Or atmosphere or direction, nor will it remain in obscurity like many previous winners of the award.

Anora is the new favorite for a few reasons:

The film is the apex of director Sean Baker’s evolving talent. He creates his world of disenfranchised outcasts with his usual ease, but he also weaves three defined acts — in essence, three separate films — into a cohesive narrative that’s linear enough for Academy voters.
It directly juxtaposes the polar ends of the class system, briefly melding them together for a beautiful utopian ideal. The problem with ideals is that they struggle beneath the weight of reality.
Mikey Madison gives the most original female performance in recent memory.
Its fiercest competition (The Brutalist) follows the rise of a Charles Foster Kane-like protagonist in a film that may focus too much on the wrong end of the power dynamic in a year where the class system is being examined and criticized.
It is not a typical Palme d’Or winner, though the award is said to be Sean Baker’s career goal.

Lean: Anora (+150)

Best Director

This race still likely comes down to the films occupying most of the Best Picture discourse and their respective directors: Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Sean Baker has closed the gap recently, going from +250 Oct. 25 to +185 Nov. 15. Corbet, on the other hand, was +130 and has even more value now at +175. I liked the Baker bet more at +250 and won’t take him here (more below).

Brady Corbet +175

As much of a Sean Baker fanboy as I am (pretty big), and as much as I loved Anora (a lot), Brady Corbet still made a three-and-a-half-hour epic for ten million dollars. I’m hammering Brady Corbet at these odds for all the reasons I mentioned in my previous article.

Sean Baker +185

Two reasons I am comfortable moving away from Sean Baker as Best Director:

Based on where we are now, I don’t think this is a year where one film shares Best Picture and Director (and I think Anora wins Best Picture after seeing it).
I think Sean Baker wins Best Editing. What does that have to do with Best Director? Baker edits his films, so I think the Academy views this award as a makeshift consolation for not winning Best Director.

Lean: Brady Corbet +175

Best Actor Longshot

Timothée Chalamet +1000

This is only a sprinkle because I like the value. The Academy loves a music biopic, so I expect Timothée Chalamet to pick up a nomination for his depiction of folk singer Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. An actor of Chalamet’s talent who sings and acts as one of the most famous American singer-songwriters in music history? At 10-to-1 odds? Yes, please.