Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the NFL, NBA, PGA, NHL, MMA and EPL all occupying our attention, there’s one betting area outside of sports overlooked this time of year. DraftKings Sportsbook posted Academy Award odds for Best Picture last month and added Best Director, Actor and Actress this week, so some of the fog over this race is beginning to burn off as we draw closer to nominations, providing much-needed clarity to, at first glance, a wide-open year.
This year, Anora and The Brutalist are emerging as clear favorites, both distancing themselves in DraftKings odds. Each film is a lock to be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director and at least one of Best Actor (Adrien Brody, The Brutalist) or Best Actress (Mikey Madison, Anora). Both actors are the current favorites in their respective categories. Remember, though, just two years ago, Jaime Lee Curtis stormed back from +1000 at the time of nominations to win her first Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. In short, Oscar betting is volatile.
To further illustrate the point, last year, even after its release, Oppenheimer held an early value (+150) but was juiced to an astounding -5000 by Oscar night.
In Oscars betting, the early values are one way to a profit but not the only. I will continue monitoring the news, odds shifts and the current best values throughout the nomination process. I will also write up my final picks and best bets in the week leading up to Oscar night (March 2), where, over the past two years, we’ve returned profits (2023: 3.46 Units; 2024: 3.4 Units), even after the initial values have passed.
Enough about our past success. Let’s get to FTN’s current best values for the 97th Academy Awards.
2025 Oscar Early Best Values
Best Picture
The Best Picture race is likely down to four films. Critics and pundits will disagree with that statement because they think it’s more of a wide-open race than it really is, but I will discuss why I think each has a shot here (ordered by how I would handicap their likelihood to win the category).
The Brutalist +200
The clear favorite is Brady Corbet’s epic The Brutalist. The film started last week at +300 and moved to +200 after its trailer was released. Somehow, this is still a value because of the film’s potential magnitude.
Made for under $10 million, this 3.5-hour epic (that includes an intermission) on the American immigrant experience should only pick up momentum as we get closer to awards season. Contemporary Bohemeth A24 is set to distribute the film in the US, so there shouldn’t be an issue in getting it to audiences and should continue the production company’s recent dominance (from Moonlight to Everything Everywhere All at Once). Described as “monumental” by numerous outlets, the film should be everything the academy adores.
If you plan to bet on the early market for The Brutalist, do it before December. Its scheduled release is Dec. 20 and could be heavily juiced by Oscar night.
Anora +330
Anora has a lot going for it. For one, director Sean Baker hasn’t made a bad film. He’s shown a directorial maturation from his low-budget, low-key masterpiece Tangerine (2015) to the more widely seen, widely acclaimed Red Rocket (2021). For two, it’s being distributed by NEON, which, aside from A24, is the powerhouse in the semi-indie film world of today. Since Parasite’s Best Picture win(2019), the company has been circling a second trophy for five years with some remarkable, noteworthy nominations (Triangle of Sadness and Anatomy of a Fall).
What Anora does not have going for it is that it won the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival this year. There have only been three films to win both the Palme d’Or and the Academy Award for Best Picture: Parasite (2019), The Silent World (1956) and Marty (1955). Not exactly the best pattern. It feels like Anora may be similar to Past Lives from last year. I loved it, but it didn’t walk away with any hardware.
Still, the film has the second best chance based on critics’ reactions, my trust in Sean Baker and NEON’s push to compete with A24’s The Brutalist for Best Picture.
The Life of Chuck +2000
This is where I get a little spicy. Earlier this year The Life of Chuck won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Since 2005, there have only been two years (2006 and 2011) where the People’s Choice Award winner did not go on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture.
The source material, a short story from Stephen King’s If It Bleeds anthology, has stuck with me since reading it a few years ago. It contains multitudes, indeed. The rave reviews and the win at TIFF make the film a dark horse, but at +2000, what isn’t? It’s a contender, for sure.
Dune Part Two +700
Not only is Dune Part Two one of the better sequels in cinema history, but it’s a sequel better than its series predecessor. The problem is, the film premiered before the last Academy Awards was broadcast. That puts it in the “in-between” of Oscar seasons. Even if a re-release were to garner a little momentum, I don’t see the film making it to the finish line. I’m in the camp that Dune: Messiah is when Denis Villeneuve makes his push for Best Picture and Director, a la Peter Jackson’s Return of the King (2003).
Talas’ Lean
The Brutalist +200
Best Director
When Coda won Best Picture in 2021, it was a bad year for Oscar-worthy films. The director of the film, Philippe Rousselet, wasn’t even nominated. This is not 2021.
Brady Corbet and Sean Baker are the only two directors I would consider placing money on for Best Director, and, honestly, it’s about as close to 50-50 as you can get.
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) +130
The fact that a film can be described as “monumental” in scope, vision and optimism is not a surprise. Cinema has been doing that since its inception. Doing it for under ten million dollars in 2024? Now, that’s an accomplishment. Watch the trailer, and you will see why the scope feels big and how miraculous that is considering the budgetary restraints.
Brady Corbet is not exactly a household name. Yet. I think that changes this year.
Sean Baker (Anora) +250
At +250, that’s good odds, and based on Sean Baker’s progression over the years, I wouldn’t rule him out as walking home with Best Director.
To start, Sean Baker is more than the “every man’s” director. He’s like the “every man’s got a black sheep in his family” director. His direction always finds the forgotten crevices of society, from shooting with an iPhone to account for the gritty reality of Los Angeles streets in Tangerine to the washed-out modern tenement buildings near Walt Disney World in The Florida Project. He finds real people.
Something about the story is different, though. The title character, Anora, a prostitute from Brooklyn, meets a Russian oligarch. That is something never focused on in a Sean Baker film to date: rich people. A director nearing the peak of his artistry is an investment I like. If you are less averse to risk, I like this bet.
Talas’ Lean
Brady Corbet +135
Best Actor & Best Actress
Clear favorites here don’t offer much value.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) -135
Best Actress: Mikey Madison (Anora) -150
