FTN’s 2025 Academy Awards Picks

With the NBA and NHL seasons past their all-star breaks, the NFL Combine this weekend and the March Madness Tournament in a few weeks, it’s a busy time of the year for sports.  

Emilia Pérez leads all motion pictures with 13 nominations. Still, the film should only win a maximum of two awards (Best Supporting Actress & Best Original Song ) after a social media controversy emerged about some of Karla Sofía Gascon’s older tweets and toppled the early-season behemoth. I am fading the film in all categories, not because of the controversy, but because the music and movie did not work for me. 

In October, I wrote that two films were distancing themselves as potential favorites for Best Picture. Since then, I’ve ping-ponged between the same two films: Sean Baker’s Anora and Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. Anora is now a -200 favorite. You can see my current picks for all Academy Awards in the table below, but first, I’d like to highlight a few of my favorite values heading into Oscar Night. 

Last season, my best values article hit Best Actress (Emma Stone +165), Best Sound (The Zone of Interest +150), Best Makeup & Hairstyling (+125) and Best Costume (+125).

Let’s get to FTN’s Best Bets for the 97th Academy Awards.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook (2/28/25) 

Best Bets

Best Actress: Mikey Madison +175 (Anora)

In November, I was ecstatic not only about the film’s chances at Best Picture, but even more so for the young actress who made the film the most memorable of the year. At the time, I believed that Mikey Madison gave “the most original female performance in recent memory.” I still feel that way.  

To prepare for the performance, Madison spent months learning to dance, studying Russian and honing the character explicitly written for her by writer-director Sean Baker. 

Demi Moore is the current favorite, and I get it. It’s a “body of work” Oscar for a good performance in a movie that went to hideous lengths to get its point across. It’s not in the same league as Madison’s Anora, who carries the film from start to finish and develops unique relationships with every character she interacts with. If Moore wins, she should share the award with Margaret Qually, as it’s essentially their character. 

Madison’s performance in the film, which most experts think will win Best Picture at plus-money, is the reason it wins one of the most prestigious awards of the night. Sorry, Demi. It’s Mikey’s night.

Best Live Action Short Film: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent +150

The Oscar for Live-Action Short is my favorite of the lesser-known Academy Award categories. You can see all of them together in local theaters throughout the U.S. It’s a truly unique experience to watch five films shorter than 30 minutes. Some come and go in this cinephile’s memory, but the ones that stay usually win. 

This year’s film “that stays” for me is the Croatian film The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. Historically, the Best Live Action Short Film category is packed with statement-makers, and this year is no different. From emotional robots to poached rhinos, deportations to genocides, this is a really strong year for the category. Though I enjoyed all the films this year in different ways, at only 13 minutes, the most impactful film was also the shortest. 

I don’t want to spoil anything for readers wanting to see the film. Still, much of the dread, paranoia and guilt are created through the subtle, nuanced performances instead of loud dialogue. It’s more impressive than A Lien because it conveys a similar message more efficiently. I love getting this gem at +150. 

Best Supporting Actress: Isabella Rossellini +2000 (Conclave)

This is only a tiny sprinkle, but I am fading Emilia Perez because of its recent downfall and being an over-nominated movie. Aside from the social media controversy, it wasn’t a good film. Zoe Saldana was on screen more than any other character, and I think the academy will collectively eye-roll the miscategorization. 

On the other hand, Isabella Rossellini brings serious acting chops, a memorable character in Sister Agnes, and gets a “body of work” Oscar. 

Bold text denotes Mike Talas’ current Oscar Betting value.