Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The NFL playoffs are here, which means the stakes are higher for everyone, and that makes our bets that much more exciting. In this article, I’ll take you through some of my favorite player props for the Wild Card slate.
Chris Godwin Over 6.5 Receptions
-122, FanDuel Sportsbook
While Mike Evans went off in Week 17, I think Chris Godwin is the best play against a tough Dallas pass rush. Tom Brady has a 6.7-yard average depth of target (down from 8.1 in 2021), averaging 6.52 air yards per attempt, ranking 39 of 46 QBs with 200 snaps, but he’s also third in QB accuracy in that 0- to 10-air yard range. His lack of consistent downfield passing sets up best for their short-game weapons, like Godwin, Leonard Fournette and Cade Otton. The Buccaneers offensive line hasn’t been as strong this season, and Dallas has a strong pass rush lead by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. They haven’t been at the top of their game over the last couple weeks, but the talent is there, and I expect some pressure in Brady’s face for this one.
Godwin has over 6.5 receptions in eight of his last 12 and at least 6 in 13 of 15 games this season. Without Anthony Brown, this Cowboys’ secondary has really struggled, especially against WR2s. CB1 Trevon Diggs doesn’t travel for other receivers very often, and since Godwin runs a majority of his routes from the slot, he’ll miss their best corner by far. DaRon Bland has been solid for a rookie in the slot this season but got injured in their last game against Washington, which might be a slight concern. Godwin will likely get a combination of different guys, with the Cowboys even so desperate that he might catch a little of 99-year-old Xavier Rhodes out there.
FanDuel currently has this number at -122 while the rest of market is at -150, I would recommend the Bengals moneyline as a spot to reduce the juice if needed. Yards should also be a good angle in the mid-sixties, but his bottom 10th percentile average depth of target leads me to believe that receptions are a bit safer.
Daniel Bellinger Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
-125, PointsBet
While Daniel Bellinger may just be a rookie, he’s having a very good season with the Giants. While he isn’t the highest-usage tight end in the world, his blocking and pass catching ability make him very valuable for this Giants team. Bellinger is currently second among all tight ends (not just rookies) in catch rate, at 85.7%. Additionally, they have also started to use him at fullback, where they have been able to generate a couple chunk plays with that unique formation. While he wouldn’t traditionally be the kind of player that earned those kinds of play calls, his dependable hands are clearly keeping him involved.
He’s gone over this number in seven of 11 games this season and has a pretty solid matchup here. While they haven’t faced any high ends tight ends, they still struggled, allowing 57 to Cole Kmet, 52 to Robert Tonyan, 27 to Bellinger, 36 to Jelani Woods and 34 to Kylen Granson over their last handful of games. I expect him to find a couple holes in the zone and be a reliable target over the middle field in a game where they will likely have to pass a bit.
