Wild Card Round Betting Breakdown

There’s no better time to get some sports betting action in than the NFL playoffs. Wild Card Round bets abound on this weekend’s card. Whether it’s sides and totals or player props, we have you covered here at FTN with our NFL betting models and NFL player props tool. But before we put some wagers in play, it’s important to know a thing or two about each of the six Wild Card Round games.

LA Chargers @ Houston

The first game on the slate features two improving franchises. On the Chargers side, Jim Harbaugh turned the squad around in his first season. He enters the 2024 postseason with a 5-3 career playoff record. Harbaugh reached the NFC title game in first season with 49ers in 2011, eventually losing to the Giants. A win in this one would make him the second head coach all-time to win playoff game in first season with multiple teams. The only other to do so was Pete Carroll with the Patriots and Seahawks.

Of course, it’s been a bit of a drought for the Chargers in the postseason. They have not won a playoff game since 2018 AFC Wild Card against the Ravens, Lamar Jackson’s first playoff game. But this is a very good team. The Chargers allowed an NFL-low 17.7 points per game this season, which is a significant improvement over 2023 when they were the No. 24 scoring defense. The last team to go from No. 24 or worse to the No. 1 scoring defense was the 1992 Giants.

Justin Herbert will be making just his second postseason appearance of his career. He lost a tough one to the Jaguars in the 2022 Wild Card Round. The Chargers blew a 27-point lead in that game, losing 31-30. That was the third-largest blown lead in playoff history. But Herbert is coming of an impressive regular season where he became the fifth different quarterback NFL history to have 3,500-plus pass yards, 20-plus touchdowns and fewer than five interceptions in a season.

Perhaps the biggest story for the Chargers in 2024 was the run game. J.K. Dobbins managed to get through the season with only four missed games and posted career-highs in rushes (195) and rushing yards (905) along with tying a career-high in rushing touchdowns (9). Dobbins’ impact on the offense was significant. In the 13 games he played this season, the Chargers averaged 121.8 rush yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. In the four games without him, those numbers plummeted to 74.8 rush yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.

The Chargers also found their replacement for Keenan Allen in rookie Ladd McConkey. The Georgia product set Chargers rookie records in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1,149). He enters the playoffs on a streak of 10 straight games with 50-plus receiving yards. That’s tied for the longest streak by a rookie since the merger in 1970.

On the other side, Houston is the only team in NFL to never reach the Conference Championship game. However, this franchise is trending up. Houston has made the postseason in back-to-back years for the fourth time in franchise history (2018-19, 2015-16, 2011-12). However, the Texans may not be in the best form. They’re just 5-6 in their last 11 games after starting the season 5-1. DeMeco Ryans is looking to become the 11th head coach to win a playoff game in each of his first two seasons. Of course, he would join Jim Harbaugh on this list.

It was far from a perfect season for C.J. Stroud, but a win in this one would make him the sixth quarterback to win a playoff game in each of first two seasons. He already joined Dan Marino as the only quarterbacks to win their division in each of his first two seasons.

Last year, Stroud threw for 274 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Texans’ Wild Card win over the Browns. In the process, he became the youngest quarterback to win playoff game.

But as I noted, this was far from a clean season for Stroud and the Texans. Houston was 1-5 against winning teams this season with an average of 16.0 points per game, 215.5 pass yards per game, five touchdowns and eight interceptions. That’s a huge difference from 2023 where the Texans went 6-3 against winning teams with an average of 25.4 team points per game, 311.7 passing yards per game, 18 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Joe Mixon got out of the gate hot this season, averaging 88.7 rushing yards per game and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns over the Texans’ first 10 games. Those numbers fell off hard over his final four games in the regular season with just 32.3 rushing yards per game and zero rushing scores. As for Nico Collins, despite missing five games due to injury, he posted 83.8 receiving yards per game this season, fourth highest in NFL.

For betting purposes, road favorites are 2-6 against the spread in playoffs since 2016, including 0-2 against the spread in 2023. That isn’t the best stat for the Chargers, who are three-point favorites as of this writing. However, the Chargers have been excellent against the spread down the stretch. Over their last 11 games, the Chargers are 9-2 against the spread. Of course, things can’t be that easy. Last season, each 4-seed won as a home underdog by 23-plus points. Those two teams were Tampa Bay and Houston.

Betting Records This Season

LAC: 12-5 ATS, UNDER is 9-8
HOU: 7-8-2 ATS, UNDER is 11-6

Projected Score

LAC 23.8 – HOU 19.3

Jeff’s Game Pick

LA Chargers

Best Bets

Quentin Johnston Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)

This isn’t a play for the faint of heart, but Johnston did top this line in each of his last two games and went off for 186 yards in the season finale.

J.K. Dobbins Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)

He’s questionable to play but should suit up after getting three limited practices in. The Texans are good against the run, but Dobbins has topped this line in each of his last two games since returning from injury.

C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

After an extremely clean rookie season with just five picks, Stroud tossed 12 interceptions this season, including 3 over his last three games.