Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The preseason has come to an end, and Week 1 is now in our sights. With the last batch of fantasy football drafts coming up, now is a great time to take a look back at what we learned from the preseason and how we can apply it to our fantasy football drafts.
Up first? The AFC.
Baltimore Ravens
There has been some hype surrounding tight end Isaiah Likely this offseason, with some chatter about the Ravens utilizing more two tight end sets in 2024. He certainly earned some more opportunities, averaging 12 PPR points per game with Mark Andrews out of the lineup last season. And over the final five weeks of the year, Likely averaged nearly 60 receiving yards and 15 fantasy points per contest.
Buffalo Bills
Honestly, what we learned from Buffalo is that we don’t know what the wide receiver rotation will look like. Curtis Samuel (turf toe) hardly played in the preseason, while Mack Hollins was also sidelined. A valuable piece of information is which wideouts will be on the field in 12 personnel, but because the wide receiver room wasn’t at full strength, we didn’t really get that answer. And because I expect the Bills to run two tight end sets north of 30% of the time, this is crucial.
Cincinnati Bengals
Similar to Buffalo, what I wanted to learn the most in Cincy wasn’t quite answered during the preseason. With Joe Mixon gone, there is a huge opportunity for either Chase Brown or Zack Moss. But Moss was out for the first preseason game, which led to elite usage from Brown. And in practice sessions, we saw Brown and Moss both see pass game usage and goal-line touches in this offense, so Week 1 will likely tell us a lot.
Cleveland Browns
Cedric Tillman was one of my favorite receivers in the 2023 draft class, and despite a quiet rookie season, I’m not giving up on him. Sure, Cleveland added Jerry Jeudy this offseason, but he hasn’t exactly been reliable so far in his NFL career. And Tillman has been impressing throughout training camp.
Denver Broncos
Jaleel McLaughlin needs to be on your radar in PPR formats. That was the case for months but was even more solidified when the Broncos released Samaje Perine. The third-down/pass-catching role in a Sean Payton offense is absolute PPR gold for fantasy football purposes. Last year, Perine had that role, leading all running backs in receptions in the two-minute drill (25), while ranking ninth in third-down receptions (14). He played 93% of the team’s snaps in the two-minute drill, as well as 67% on long down and distances. Payton’s offenses have always heavily relied on the screen game, and that was no different in 2023. 23.3% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts went behind the line of scrimmage last year (4th), and he also posted a 12.1% screen dropback rate. Expect that to continue this season, especially with Bo Nix at quarterback. 749 of his passing yards from 2023 came off screens in 2023, while 27% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage. And Payton already liked to utilize McLaughlin in the screen game this past season, as he ranked sixth in receptions (17) and ninth in targets (18) off screens as a rookie.
Houston Texans
While there has been plenty of debate surrounding which Houston wideouts should be drafted where in fantasy leagues, the key takeaway here is that the Texans are going to score a lot of points this season. CJ Stroud looked great in limited preseason action, and the offensive line should be healthier in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts
With Josh Downs sidelined, we saw Adonai Mitchell play more (and thrive) out of the slot throughout the preseason. Mitchell is very smooth with his routes, especially on deep passes, which could fit well with Anthony Richardon’s arm. We’ll see when Downs can return, but Mitchell should be moving up the rankings ahead of Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Trevor Lawrence touchdown regression is going to hit this season. In fact, it already has, as he tossed a pair of touchdowns to Evan Engram during Jacksonville’s final preseason game. Last year, Lawrence completed just over 45% of his passes from inside the 10-yard line, which consisted of multiple near touchdowns. A bounce-back season is on the horizon, especially when you consider how good Brian Thomas Jr. looks.
Kansas City Chiefs
We may have been too low on Xavier Worthy. He’s flashed massive upside throughout training camp, consistently making plays deep down the field. His size won’t be a problem in this offense because of all the pre-snap motion that Andy Reid utilizes, and with Marquise Brown sidelined for at least Week 1, there is a massive opportunity here.
Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White should absolutely get most of the early-down work, but I am worried that his upside is capped in fantasy due to his lack of involvement on passing downs. Dylan Laube and Ameer Abdullah took him off the field on most third downs throughout the preseason, which is not what you want, especially if the Raiders are going to be trailing in a handful of games this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
We know the Chargers want to run the football this season, and when they do, I believe the efficiency will be solid. The offensive line impressed during the preseason, often creating large lanes for the running backs to find.
Miami Dolphins
After an absurd rookie season, it only makes sense for the Dolphins to give De’Von Achane more work in his second year. And his preseason usage should excite many, as Miami lined Achane up wide and gave him multiple schemed targets and touches in the passing game.
New England Patriots
Although Jacoby Brissett will start Week 1, the preseason told us what we mostly knew all along – Drake Maye is pretty damn good. He looked great during his preseason action, and regardless of who is under center, I’m confident the Patriots offense will be light years better than last season.
New York Jets
Braelon Allen is awesome. Sure, Breece Hall is going to dominate the work, but Allen clearly showed that he is the direct handcuff to Hall. If the latter is forced to miss any time, the rookie is going to be a top-15 fantasy football running back.
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens is in line for a ton of targets, and that only solidified once Brandon Aiyuk re-signed with San Francisco. In four games without Diontae Johnson last year, Pickens averaged 8.3 targets per game, while posting a 29% target share and 25% target per route run rate. And in Pittsburgh’s Week 1 preseason game, Pickens saw multiple targets, including a designed screen. He had three screen targets all of last season.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans basically said as much, but this backfield is going to be as close to a 50/50 split as possible. Both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears saw early-down, third-down and short-yardage work throughout the preseason, and it simply might come down to which running back has the hot hand each week.
