What If Arizona Doesn’t Completely Suck?

There are a few surprises if you look at this week’s DVOA ratings, but the biggest surprise of the year is probably sitting at No. 18. There you’ll find the Arizona Cardinals, currently the second-highest 0-2 team behind the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals were supposed to be completely tanking this season, but they’ve played two close games and overall looked much better than expected.

Part of what’s going on here may be schedule strength. The Cardinals lost to the Commanders by 4, then lost to the Giants by 3. It’s possible Arizona is better than we expected, but it’s also possible that both Washington and New York are worse than we expected. Or maybe only one of them is worse than we expected. Right now, the Giants are dead last in DVOA but Washington is 11th and 2-0 after beating Denver in Week 2. Either way, it’s only a two-game sample.

You also have to remember that front offices tank, but players and coaches do not. Players do not go out on the field thinking “I won’t try too hard because we’re trying to get a better draft pick.” They play hard because they’re naturally competitive and because they’re always playing for that next contract. Coaches know they won’t necessarily be kept around to coach that No. 1 pick the team is hoping to earn with a losing season. They’re trying their hardest to win games. Just ask Lovie Smith.

In both weeks, the Cardinals have jumped out to an early lead and then blown it with their offense shutting down in the second half. They lost to the Commanders in Week 1 when the offense didn’t score any points in the final 25 minutes. Week 2 was even worse, of course. The Cardinals led the game 20-0 at halftime and later led 28-7 before the Giants came all the way back for a win. The good news (bad news?) for Arizona is that there’s no indication that blowing games in the second half is predictive of future performance. Arizona’s strong play in the first halves of those games tells us as much about the team as their poor play in the second halves.

Washington had the higher DVOA in Week 1 but Arizona’s -18.9% single-game DVOA was respectible for a losing team. In Week 2, the Cardinals had the higher DVOA, 8.6% to -18.5%, despite losing the game to the Giants. The Arizona offense had 32.7% DVOA on first and second downs but then struggled with -15.9% DVOA on third downs. Third downs looked even worse because the Cardinals needed so many yards on those plays. The Giants averaged only 5.6 yards to go on third downs. The Cardinals averaged 9.0 yards to go, in part because of a series of offensive penalties: an offensive pass interference on rookie Michael Wilson that turned second-and-7 into second-and-17, a 10-yard illegal block on Marquise Brown that cancelled out a 9-yard gain on second-and-12, and two straight false starts on Elijah Wilkinson to set up third-and-16.

(All those yards to go aren’t the reason for the poor DVOA on third down, because the average baseline in DVOA is based on down-and-distance. But needing so many yards made it harder on the Cardinals.)

DVOA thinks Arizona has been pretty much an average team so far this season. The Cardinals are 20th on offense, 17th on defense, and 15th on special teams. That’s very middle of the road. The offense is split between 14th pass and 17th run, while the defense is exactly the opposite, ranking 17th pass and 14th run. Again, we’re very middle of the road here.

The biggest driver of Arizona’s average start is quarterback Joshua Dobbs. Right now, Dobbs has positive passing DVOA, ranked 16th out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 30 pass attempts. He’s not dinking and dunking as you would expect from a journeyman backup; Dobbs ranks 10th with an 8.3-yard average depth of target. Dobbs showed up only a couple weeks before the season began, so what happens once he has more practice in the system?

Another player to watch in the coming weeks is tight end Trey McBride. He’s started by catching 4-of-5 passes for 55 yards for 56.4% DVOA. He also has PFF’s top tight end receiving grade through two weeks. Is he going to be a more common target as the season goes along?

On defense, the standout is Dennis Gardeck, once upon a time a special teams stalwart who barely played defense. Gardeck already has three sacks, a tackle for loss on Saquon Barkley, and a tackle to prevent Barkley from converting on a second-and-1 reception.

I don’t know what to expect from Arizona going forward. The schedule certainly gets harder, with their next three games against Dallas, San Francisco, and Cincinnati. But the Cardinals have already climbed out of the basement, at least according to DAVE. Our ratings which combine performance so far (15%) and preseason projection (85%) now have Arizona ahead of both Chicago and Houston. The Cardinals also no longer have the highest chance for the No. 1 pick according to our simulations – unless you add in the chances they’ll get it through the Houston Texans.

Maybe the Arizona Cardinals will get the best of both worlds this season: better than expected, laying a foundation for the future, with enough close losses to still snag that No. 1 overall pick.