Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-133) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for significantly more yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
96
Rushing Yards