WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-133) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for significantly more yards per game (67.0) this season than he did last season (47.0).
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Rushing Yards
96
Rushing Yards
