NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Texans vs. Eagles
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (+115/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (+115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Miles Sanders has run for significantly more yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the most yards in the NFL (180 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
