Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Buccaneers vs. Rams
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-114/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 13.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 32.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (61.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (76.6% in games he has played).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Leonard Fournette’s ground efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 3.63 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 figure last season.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 103 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
