Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-110) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 19.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a more important option in his team’s run game this season (84.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in run blocking.
- Josh Jacobs has run for a lot more yards per game (99.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s running efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 5.74 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.12 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-least run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 35.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per play.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense boasts the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 4.20 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
