Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Bengals vs. Panthers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to total 17.9 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this week (65.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.0% in games he has played).
- D’Onta Foreman’s ground efficiency has been refined this year, compiling 5.08 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.21 figure last year.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.6 plays per game.
- D’Onta Foreman has run for substantially fewer yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
