Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deon JacksonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Colts
Right now, Deon Jackson’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-120) after it opened @ 47.5 (-130).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to notch 17.1 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (58.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).
- The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup QB Sam Ehlinger in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
